Nuclear War, Annie Jacobsen

Was given this book over the holidays.

Nuclear War, A Scenario.... by Annie Jacobsen

Military friend that gave it to me said, this is the scariest book I have ever read.

Anyone read it.... I have just started this evening.

 

She did an Interview with Shawn Ryan a few months ago, Hyper Scary to say the least, and something to be worried about!

 

One comment from the other side. In this game, everybody has a dog in the hunt and is backing their dog. Don't know about modern weapons, was in on the Genie in the 1950's. It was declawed with some work to about 1.5 kilo tons and missile and warhead combined weighed 820 pounds, The warhead when separated from the rocket fit into a case you could put in the back seat of a SUV. Yet the Davy Crocket and various suitcase bombs were smaller. War head was very crude, no real electronics, no guidance, no repair capabilities , and we built somewhere about 1,000 of them. Was test fired from first real all weather jet fighter, the F-89 live and nuke. All the tests I was involved with were dummy heads.

Nuclear Weapons – The Armourers Bench

While she talks of the dangers of escalation, by major powers, I think a greater danger is the limited use of tac nukes getting out of hand. I have no doubt that both the Ukraine and North Korea would use them if they were in doubt of continuing the battle successfully with non nuke weapons. Thus I find both the concept of Mutual Destruction and total ban of nukes lack real promise. The cat is out of the bag and crude weapons are too easy to make and nuclear materials too wide spread to realistically put it back in the bag.

Annie Jacobsen Gets It Wrong about Nuclear Deterrence — Global Security Review

While I haven't read her book, in general I understand it was outlined in this podcast



And it is about $15 on Kindle or I expect your public library will have it.

All goes back to Oppenhiemer and the discussions after bombing Japan. The government wanted to now if there was a way to defend against the bomb. He said that there was. The generals, etc all wanted to know what it was. He said the Japanese had found a defense. The generals said, but they surrendered! He said the bombs stopped didn't they.

There has been a tendency to try to terrorize people and then come up with what in the long run in the past been Unicorn farts. League of Nations, various treaties, mass protests, etc. They all are based on the concept that nations are both honorable and keep their word. That has not been true with any nation I know of.

Old 1950's civil defense saying. "In case of nuclear war, strip naked, wrap yourself in a sheet and proceed slowly to the nearest cemetery". When asked why to go slowly, the answer is that they didn't want to start a panic.

 

The movie that is said to have caused great concern when it was screened at the White House for Ronald Reagan


The Day After 1983 Full, Original

The Day After ( 1983 Full, Original 1751 Aspect Ratio) : Remember Radio : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

 

I first watched this movie while on my Navy ship, in port at NorVa. Very sobering.

 

Yes humans are idiots,we could have solved medical problems a century ago,only we spend the time and money to find ways to maim.kill and blackmail. And do not worry somebody will use a nuke.If i was you i would worry about the b,c weapons,all around the world the are more created after the success of covid!

 

Species come and go some stay around for millions of years _Dinosaurs ---Man is a late comer but will be the cause of mans extinction. It's only matter of time

 

I did look up the book on Amazon. It is $15 for an eBook version (Kindle version) so I doubt I will get it as I have a hard rule about paying more than $7 for an eBook, but it does have good reviews, 4.6 stars from almost 8000 reviews, which is not fantastic but good for a non-fiction book.

@duane 'I think a greater danger is the limited use of tac nukes getting out of hand.'
Yes, this is exactly what I think is the greatest danger. I believe that only the threat of death and complete destruction keeps nations like Iran or North Korea from using them. I further believe it is obvious, that Russia would indeed use tactical nukes should NATO attacks them. A tactical nuke is what will lead to the big boys being used. However, I must point out that Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. They gave them up in the Budapest Accords agreement (1994) with the UK, USA, and Russia "...to respect the Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders." Sadly, this was a mistake on their part and led to invasion while providing a warning to all other nations who think promises from these nations will be upheld if it's inconvenient. One could easily make the argument that if Ukraine kept their nukes that Putin would never have invaded.


Amazon.com: Nuclear War: A Scenario eBook : Jacobsen, Annie: Kindle Store

 

your public library card should let you borrow it. The ebook, I mean, of course paper as well.

 

The other issue where people really get all twisted up in is "Nuclear Winter" many folks claim Annie is wrong in her assessment, while others tend to agree, but don't think it will be nearly as bad! The Issue here is: the U.S. Army did it's "Bomb Damage Assessments" and came up with various levels of destruction, and claimed Nuclear WInter was a non factor, while completely ignoring the known effects of weather and such natural occurrences, never factoring in that such an exchange would likely generate it's own weather which would absolutely effect areas outside the blast zones, far and wide, and with an all out exchange, those would all merge and become Nuclear Winter!

The other issue folks seem to have issue with is: MAD, that no one would use a "Limited Strike" and expect it to end there, especially if done against one of the other 9 nuke armed countries, NOPE, once it goes loud, everyone launches for what ever reason, and the world burns! You don't win a war once the nukes fly, it's impossible, even a small, low yield device or "Tactical Nuke" assumes your enemy accepts your threat of escalation and stops it's aggressions then and there!, I can tell you this, if you deployed such a device in Russia, they will absolutely return the favor with their entire inventory, same with China! I would say the United States may in fact be the only nation on earth that would endure such a detonation and not retaliate with an all out strike on whom ever launched on us, i'm thinking Iran or North Korea, who we should absolutely destroy, to the point even the cockroaches die!

 

The world is a scary place. You are warm, protected, perfect climate , never hungry, don't have to work, life is perfect. Then there is sudden loss of protection, a lot of pressure, someone grabs you by the heels, slaps your butt, there are bright lights, its cold, the soothing sounds are gone, you find out what hunger . pain and being wet are. Welcome to the real world. As bad as it is, you can't go back. Jacobsen and a lot of others would love to go back. To what I don't know. I am 86, had measles, mumps, chicken pox, whooping cough, rheumatic fever, and a lot of other childhood diseases. My children had a few of them and my grandchildren have had none of them. My grandparent homesteaded in Dakota and tell of the Army patrol coming around about every 3 days to make sure that none of the Sioux had left the reservation and killed someone.
Was kind of ironic as grandfather was half Lakota and had a lot of kin on the reservation. But by the luck of the draw, his mother was "Lakota" and not his father, so he didn't have to go.

I don't know what the answer is to the nuclear problem. In the long run we either figure it out or die as a species. Might end up being the losers. The problem is that many on the left consider the loss of freedom and self expression as acceptable as long as they have their safe spaces and every decision is made for them. My mileage varies on that subject. It is hard to make a rational decision when those in the decision making process do not have a common core of shared beliefs. Thus you end in jolly old England where you can get 5 years for anti Islamist speech and a member of a selected minority can get 3 years for multiple rape of a 12 year old and "grooming" is ignored.

While the day after tomorrow down played the radiation effects, it was at the time a fairly representative look at what a nuclear war might look like, Since then the bombs have become more numerous, the power greater, and many more delivery means. As scary as it was, it might be that it was looking thru rose tinted glasses. A Russian 50 megaton Tzar Bomba would ruin your day if many miles from the aim point. A small bomb now may well be in the 1 megaton range .



Built in 1961 with relays and clocks instead of electronics. Built in an old brick building and shipped by rail. Bomb on trailer towed by 6 by 6 and dropped from a Bear bomber with the emphasis on "clean" bomb, blow you to bits, fry you, but little fallout. Put together with screw drivers and socket wrenches, some instructions still going out in Morse code. Now that it has been done, I expect if the materials were available, Iran and North Korea could build that weapon and setting it off in the ocean to maximize fall out and in the area of the jet stream to disperse the fall out would be bad. Couple old scifi stories used that concept for the war to end all wars as there were no survivors.

The first test of an A bomb in the USSR was August 1949 and a lot based on German and US data. Then 12 years later a 50 megaton bomb of their own design. The cat is out of the bag. In 1945 we were using 20 kiloton bombs, in 1961 it was downgraded to 50 megatons in a test shot. In theory it could have been 100 megatons,

 

I'm several miles from a secondary target. Additionally, I'm about 20 miles from two primary targets in opposite directions. I'm downwind from none of them.
So if they nuke me .. i get nuked.
Not like I can stop them.
I worried enough back in grade school and high school about the ruskies nuking me.
I'm just going with the Dr. Strangelove doctrine.

 

I'm less than 60 miles from the biggest target in the whole damn country, if they launch, it will be over so fast, I wouldn't even have time to blink, big flash, and I am standing before St.Peter wondering WTF!
I don't worry about it, nothing I can do about it, and even if they miss, I'm probably still gonna feel it for a few seconds or so! I figured Russia has at least a couple of really big ones specifically target to My A.O. maybe more, just to be sure they knock it out! Don't know if China has the same capabilities, but it likely wouldn't matter, in that case, close enough really is!

 

For 20 years I lived 15 miles from NORAD, 11 miles from the Air Force Academy, 8 miles from Petersen AFB and 13 miles from Schriever Space Force Base. Oh yeah, 20 miles from Fort Carson Army Base.

Colorado Springs has to be a top 3 target in the nation with all that.

So four years ago, I moved 500 miles west and now live out in the middle of nowhere. There shouldn't be a nuke target anywhere near me and fallout will be about as weak as anyone can hope for. Regardless, I have a plan.

The wife and I raised our four children in the Springs and thankfully, the last one moved away in December.

I really, really don't think a country will fire an ICBM at America from their dirt. I agree with others that a small nuke could be smuggled in and used strategically, be it in a suitcase or in a lead-lined sea container. There is also the possibility of Hypersonic Nukes being fired from a Sub, 100 miles off our coast.

I think our enemies would love to Nuke the Pentagon and the Capital in DC, but I don't think they want the USA to be a wasted heap, unlivable for 100 years. Therefore, a half dozen HEMP's might be what eventually happens as well. Kill electricity and 90% of America dies in a year. Our enemies wouldn't even have to worry about the 300 million guns out there.



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from 60 miles away - if it's a cloudy day you wouldn't even see the mushroom cloud - much less anything else - could feel a shock tremor depending on the ground density involved .....

 

A preview of the aftermath of Nuclear war in Cal right now, but no one will be putting out the fires.

 

I live in the foothills of Chrystal Peak, if that gets Nuked, it's gonna hurt, trust me, there is nothing to slow or divert any of the blast energy, is gonna flatten everything for miles and miles around!

 

Ok, finished the book last night. Honestly, it was captivating and held me really well.... at least for the first 2/3rds of the book. I think she gets whacky the back end with her version of what could happen. The last just wasn't realistic to me.

I do recommend it for a read and hopefully, soon.... it will be a $5 book.

 

Always liked this quote from the movie The Mist “As a species we're fundamentally insane. Put more than two of us in a room, we pick sides and start dreaming up reasons to kill one another. Why do you think we invented politics and religion?” I think this sums it up nicely...