It’s important we internalize the logistical challenges potential adversaries (like raiders, golden horde, etc) will face in the aftermath of an event that leaves most largely "on their own". Once understood, it becomes readily obvious that the old real estate saying “location, location, location” is very appropriate when describing the easiest way to optimize one’s chances of surviving the aforementioned potential adversaries. To begin, we have to assume consumption of resources will be similar everywhere, and regardless of how well anyone is supplied, post SHTF, fuel and food will be finite resources. For refugees/raiders this means their ability to travel and re-supply diminishes as what fuel is left is consumed (but not replenished)... not just by the refugees/raiders, but by those in the locations the refugees/raiders are traveling to. Every resource will be consumed, everywhere. What we're missing is that post SHTF the rate of decline for re-supply for the refugees/raiders will actually accelerate AND compound as refugees/raiders spread out from their initial point. This is because the area they must search grows as the square of the radius. So they have exponentially declining odds of success (for fuel & food). This will make refugee/raider searches for fuel & food, far less reaching the further they get from their starting point. Each time they find success it will likely be less in total than before, thus reducing their distance potential to the point that eventually they won't be able to search en masse, if at all. So by simply being beyond the radius of "one tank of gas" (since the avg. car only has 1/2 a tank), one can eliminate (or greatly reduce) the possibility of meeting most refugees/raiders. If we make a few assumptions, we can actually figure the distance within which one can actually be reassured that the majority of city-dwellers will not reach.. As of 2022: Passenger cars averaged a new high of 33.3 mpg Fleet-wide fuel economy in the United States averaged 26.6 mpg, Light trucks averaged a separate record of 23.1 mpg. Assumptions: Average tank holds 20 Gallons Average tank is only 1/2 full (10 Gallons) Average vehicle fuel economy is 27.15mpg Fuel(gal) x Mileage(mpg) = Miles a vehicle can travel. 10 gal x 27.15mpg = 270.15 miles Remember that number is only the distance the vehicle could travel.... within that distance is deviation for terrain, roads, additional searches, avoidance of other refugees/raiders and other locations... lots of variables that will eat up the distance potential. So it's a safe deduction that if one is outside that total distance potential, then the refugee/raider would have to reach you on foot, and that greatly reduces the number of people and the size of any group that could reach you. This tool is a pretty good way to illustrate it. It lets you draw a radius around a location in Google Earth: Radius Around a Point on a Map This example is a Google earth pic of Sacramento California, the radius is 150 miles, The distance from center to edge: 75 miles. As we can see... a 150 mile radius would be a LOT of real estate to cover for a refugee/raider from a 360 degree perspective. I honestly do not think people will get much farther than this from their homes. Refugees will be stuck in weather, traffic, harassed, and/or stopped by authorities. Raiders will be dealing with this too.. It's also highly likely most refugees/raiders will stay on roads, and not deviate too far from main thoroughfares... so obviously the further one is removed from main roads the greater the odds one has of maintaining security. Location, location, location! As always, plan accordingly!
almost never taken into consideration - and - not taken here at this posting >>>> 1,000s upon 1,000s are in transit daily - 24/7/365 - vehicles on the interstates zipping from one connected metro area to another ..... can't just take a local metro area to you and start drawing radius circles of driving potential >>> need to take into consideration the area interstates - the mid-point on the interstates between the metro areas being served - the interstate exits - the major state & local roads interconnected with the interstates >>> Where are the 1,000s of vehicles on the interstates going to when the SHTF hits the cities and the refugee flow from one city meets the counter flow at the interstate midpoint???? going to be allllll kinds of vehicles driving the rural areas adjacent to the interstates - 1,000s of people absolutely EVERYWHERE walking because they lost their vehicles for one reason or another >>> NOOOOO Golden Wave theory - urban raiders - roaming bands of thugs ..... not even discussed >>> if the SHTF is dragged out - FEMA is able to take action - evac the urban areas to shelter areas outside the metro - maybe cross country to other states - 10,000s sheltered in your area totally depending on FEMA to keep supplying resources and safety & sanity at the shelters >>>> where do these people land when the inevitable happens at these shelters??????
that doesn't take in account the fuel resupply that may or may not be available along the way. Broken down cars, cars in garages, fuel tanks. They could move a lot farther and faster than you think. I can guarantee that you or I could make it across the entire country in less than 10 days with no money if we were willing to steal and use violence today. It's when food, fuel, amenities are consumed in all areas that the horde (and the general population) will finally collapse. One would have to survive that long and go unnoticed to be able to then attempt to hunker down for the long haul. But that could take months or even years. Odds are you aren't unnoticed nor unknown. If it ever comes down to SHTF, no one is coming out the other side with clean hands.
Also know where the hoard/raiders will be coming from and plan accordingly. I'm going to give an example of an outstanding post SHTF location. The area is Idaho Falls, ID. The two potential "golden hords" come from Boise to the west and Salt Lake CIty to the south. The shortest route from Boise is 250 miles and from SLC is a bit over 200 miles. All routes from either city pass through lava beds that have easily defended choke points. The most common and likely part that hoards would take meet at Pocatello, where an encounter could result in a clash of resources and plunder that may well take care of a bunch of them. at that point if they turn north to IF they run into a choke point just before Blackfoot. The lava beds are extensive and dangerous. Vehicles won't be able to get through and it's incredibly dangerous to get through on foot. The beds are similar to the north western approach that passes through Arco and INL. Raiders coming from the north will have a rough time of it as well due to a limited number of narrow mountain passes. The east approach is more dire as there is only one approach and it passes through a very narroe and steep gorge. Both of these directions to not represent any large populations. OK, so the geography is easily defended, but who is going to do that? The IF metro area is full of very patriotic Mormons. They are prepared, have guns and ammo, know how t use them, and a very high number of veterans. They are perpetually ready for SHTF. They also have highly productive farms and ranches, so food production is not an issue. It's also near the convergence of the Henry's and the South Fork of the Snake, which is chock full of fish. The third significant population segment are researchers and engineers at Idaho National Laboratories. This is where nuclear power was born. You have engineering and technical resources up that wazoo to restore things lost in disaster. The Snake goes through the middle of town and through a hydro plant, so some electricity will be available depending on the circumstances plus people who have the skills to keep it running. IF also has very good medical resources and due to being an outdoor recreation destination has the medical expertise to handle traumatic wounds. I would assume the medical facilities would be a priority for the hydro plant. When you are preparing for post SHTF survival there are many factors. You are unlikely to survive on your own, so you need the right community with the right blend of resources. IF is not the only good place.
There's a reason Joel Skousen rated SLC #1 in his book "Strategic Relocation"... Good stuff folks... thanks for contributing!
What nobody knows or ever thinks about is the number of large commercial vehicles out there, each and every one is a potential source of fuel if you own a diesel vehicle, and don't forget, most big rigs pre 2000 are easy enough to hot wire and drive off that a handy feller or fellette could make off with one and disappear pretty quickly. Your average big rig tractor holds 300 gallons of fuel, that by its self could get you damn near across country, more if you drop the useless trailer. Dump trucks are their own unique quality, in addition to having pretty good range with nearly 70 gallons on board, that box on the back is pretty good armor, not quite bullet proof, but armored enough for ramming into buildings or road blocks, or just about anything that needs breaching!
Every time I come home from visiting anywhere inland I feel overcome by a feeling. A feeling that if I didn't live way out here, there's no way I'd want to ever go this way. You leave all the beautiful trees and hills and drive through miles and miles of nothing but an occasional scraggly pine tree and a bunch of scrub brush. Eighty percent of my neighbors would likely leave for elsewhere if they could. They're not permanent residents and they bug out during every hurricane. The rest of us are retired Marines and fishermen and we all know each other. Still, if this wasn't home, I sure wouldn't live here.
No matter how far I drive from home, I anticipate the walk home. There is no substitute for paper maps.( EMP or CME may take out all satellites.) the further you go the greater the need for maps that cover the trip especially though cities you may be unfamiliar with, in the event you must circumvent conventional paths. The town I live, is continually evolving.
the civilian grade GPS and commercial GPS might not be available up to the point of any shooting phase of a war >>> good chance the FED GOV shuts it down to anybody not highly authorized - I can see even the lowly daily used civilian GPS version being enemy used ......
