A book written in 1997 predicted the trouble we see today

Discussion in 'Survival Reading Room' started by DKR, Jun 8, 2020.


  1. DKR

    DKR Raconteur of the first stripe

    The book?

    The Fourth Turning (https://www.amazon.com/dp/0767900464/?tag=survivalmonke-20)

    Ran across this at Business Insider, oddly enought.

    "A great crisis in 2008, followed by an even greater one in 2020, as an "authoritarian, severe, unyielding" leader from the baby boomer generation resists a historic moment of change afoot in the US.

    Would you believe this was all predicted almost 25 years ago? In a book championed at the highest levels of the Trump administration, no less? Oh, and it was also written by the guys who invented the term "millennial."

    It was all prophesied in 1997 in Neil Howe and William Strauss' "The Fourth Turning," and, depending on who you ask, it was either a breakthrough in "generational theory," a strange work of pseudo-science, or both.

    In the book, Neil and Strauss — who cowrote several books on generational theory, following careers in Washington DC-area consulting circles — argue that history moves in 80-year cycles that stretch back thousands of years to the ancient Greeks. Why 80 years? Because each cycle roughly corresponds to the length of one long human life, what the Etruscans ritualized and the Romans called a "saeculum" (from which the French got the word "siecle," for "century," and we get the word "secular").

    Howe and Strauss argued that each 80-year saeculum is divided into 20-year cycles, defined by each generation as it comes into adulthood. Each of the four generations that makes up a saeculum gets assigned an archetype or Tarot-like identity: prophets, nomads, heroes, and artists."

    The blurb on the Amazon sell page has this:
    "n a nutshell, the book advances the view that history roughly repeats itself every 80 years. Further, every 80 year period is characterized by the arrival of Artists (silent generation in this cycle), Prophets (boomers), Nomads (Gen Xers) and Heroes (millennials). Previous incarnations of this cycle ended with the war of independence, the civil war and world war II. This naturally sets up the denouement for this cycle which the authors expect to occur in the 2025 time frame. Each cycle is divided into turnings: the present one is characterized by First (High: 1946-1964), Second (Awakening: 1964-1984), Third (Unraveling: 1984-2008) and Fourth (Crisis: 2008-202X). From the book's perspective and Neil Howe's subsequent blog posts, we entered the Fourth Turning in 2008. There's nothing spooky or mystical about these cycles and turnings: instead the authors stress that human nature and culture seem to have these rhythms and that Anglo-American history is stable enough to be characterized in this manner. Other cultures may either be too stable or too chaotic to follow this type of pattern".

    Takes an interesting look at events and people.

    I'd never heard of this work, yet, in the story (Sunburn) I also used the 20 YO/ 80 YO as a way to divide the different generations in the post Burn world. While the shred-out is intuitive (my degree is in Sociology) to many, what makes their work of interest is how they decided to group the generations (Artist/Nomad/etc.)

    I see it differently, but still see 4 basic 'groupings' - - Young & Stupid (inexperienced); Family man/woman; Elder and finally, Graybeard.

    Or as used in this story -
    Young (Hopefully seeking knowledge)
    Family man/women (building experience / using knowledge)
    Elder (Implementing knowledge / experience - ie Teacher)
    Graybeard (Sharing knowledge / experience ie Mentor)

    Anyway, for those that might value the 'insights' offered by this book, I thought it worth the time to post this for your consideration.

    Enjoy/
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2020
    Ganado, chelloveck, 3M-TA3 and 4 others like this.
  2. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Interesting...thanks!
     
    DKR likes this.
  3. HK_User

    HK_User A Productive Monkey is a Happy Monkey

    Read it back when!
     
    DKR likes this.
  4. mysterymet

    mysterymet Monkey+++

    Yeah but i disagree with his “generational personality”. Do i think we are in trouble and due to a load of crap, yes. However, personality is individualistic. Its the power that our society gives to certain groups of personalities that is the key right now. Also, given our society being more of a post scarcity society than many others in the world our people have forgotten what it really means to be poor and go without. Even our “poor” have never know true hunger in most areas if the country. There are a lot of things going on in our society but a better predictor of this is Jordan Peterson and his talks about personality, socialism, sjw types etc. his views are based on both science and history. Either way it still doesn’t change the fact that we are in deep crap!
     
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  5. DKR

    DKR Raconteur of the first stripe

    "Poor", IMO, is mainly a matter of perspective. By the standards of the day, I grew up 'poor', but didn't know it as it was just the way life was at the time.

    Them there is this -
    The Poorest 20% of Americans Are Richer on Average Than Most Nations of Europe
    By James D. Agresti
    August 26, 2019
    https://www.justfacts.com/news_poorest_americans_richer_than_europe.asp

    Caution is urged as statistics are used extensively.
    Liars may lie, but bullshit artists / politicians use statistics. Ensure you look closely at any numbers/sources. Not just at this site, but everywhere....

    I don't agree or disagree with this, it is just posted for your consideration...
    Run by James D. Agresti, a born again type.- well, in his case a, former atheist..
    The site is a '501(c) 3 'non-profit in DC.
    IRS Form 990 here
     
  6. HK_User

    HK_User A Productive Monkey is a Happy Monkey

    BTW, a change has come about as to the CCP Virus was man made.
    For your reading pleasure.
    Maybe the US will join in on this.
    Norway Scientist Claims Report Proves Coronavirus Was Lab-MadePosted on 6/7/20 at 5:59 pm
    [​IMG]34[​IMG]3
    Norway Scientist Claims Report Proves Coronavirus Was Lab-Made

    quote:
    EDITORS' PICK|88,559 views|Jun 7, 2020,03:42pm EDT

    Norway Scientist Claims Report Proves Coronavirus Was Lab-Made
    David Nikel

    quote:
    Norwegian scientist Birger Sørensen has claimed the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is not natural in origin. The claims by the co-author of the British-Norwegian study—published in the Quarterly Review of Biophysics—are supported by the former head of Britain’s MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove.

    The study from Sørensen and British professor Angus Dalgleish show that the coronavirus's spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted. They also highlight the lack of mutation since its discovery, which suggests it was already fully adapted to humans. The study goes on to explain the rationale for the development of Biovacc-19, a candidate vaccine for COVID-19 that is now in advanced pre-clinical development. Properties that have never been found in nature Sørensen told NRK that the virus has properties that differ greatly from SARS, and which have never been detected in nature. He explained that China and the United States have collaborated for many years on coronavirus research.

    Sørensen claimed that both countries participate in "gain of function" studies, in which the pathogenicity or transmissibility of potential pandemic pathogens can be enhanced in order to understand them better.
     
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  7. mysterymet

    mysterymet Monkey+++

    Of course this is how WW3 us vs china begins... :::starts digging bunker:::
     
    Tully Mars and HK_User like this.
  8. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey


    Article already taken down. Glad you posted some content.
     
    HK_User likes this.
  9. HK_User

    HK_User A Productive Monkey is a Happy Monkey

    May have hurt some feeling are just bogus, I'll see what else I can find.
     
  10. Catullus

    Catullus Monkey+++

    NOTE --> I grabbed the raw html. I am posting here for informational purposes. I am not going to go through and edit out all the html but the article can still be read with any links. :)

    ####START HTML#####

    <p class="color-body light-text" aria-expanded="false">Wuhan Institute of Virology is one of China's leading research centres and has been the subject of <span class="plus" data-ga-track="caption expand">... [+]</span><span class="expanded-caption"> claims from senior Trump administration officials that it was linked with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.</span></p>
    </fbs-accordion>
    <small>AFP via Getty Images</small>
    </figcaption>
    </figure>
    <p><em>June 8: This article has been substantially updated to reflect criticism of the published study, along with the general scientific consensus on Covid-19. It also clarifies Sørensen’s financial interest in the development of the </em>Biovacc-19 <em>coronavirus vaccine</em>. <em>This context did not appear in original post</em></p>
    <p>New claims that the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was engineered have been dismissed by scientific and intelligence experts.</p>
    <p>The authors of a British-Norwegian vaccine study—accepted by the <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv..._general_method_of_action_for_infectivity.pdf" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv..._general_method_of_action_for_infectivity.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv..._general_method_of_action_for_infectivity.pdf" aria-label="Quarterly Review of Biophysics"><em data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv..._general_method_of_action_for_infectivity.pdf">Quarterly Review of Biophysics</em></a>—claim that the coronavirus's spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted.</p>
    <p>In their paper, the Norwegian scientist Birger Sørensen and British oncologist Angus Dalgleish claim to have identified "inserted sections placed on the SARS-CoV-2 spike surface" that explains how the virus interacts with cells in the human body. Virologists, however, note that similar sections appear naturally in other viruses.</p>
    <h3><strong>Accidental release claims challenged</strong></h3>
    <p>Sir Richard Dearlove, who was head of MI6 from 1999 to 2004, told the<a href="Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss" aria-label="Daily Telegraph"> <em data-ga-track="ExternalLink:Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss">Daily Telegraph</em></a> that Sørensen and Dalgleish’s research shows that the pandemic may have started in at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. He added that he thought it unlikely to have been released deliberately, but that China had clearly tried to cover up the release.</p>
    <p>However, intelligence sources from Britain’s MI5 dismissed the idea as “rumor and conspiracy,” according to the <a href="MI5 believes coronavirus came from Wuhan market | News | The Times" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="MI5 believes coronavirus came from Wuhan market | News | The Times" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mi5-believes-coronavirus-came-from-market-mghqw3bxr" aria-label="Times of London"><em data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mi5-believes-coronavirus-came-from-market-mghqw3bxr">Times of London</em></a>. Dearlove was previously criticized in the Chilcot Inquiry into the Iraq War for promoting “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36713003" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36713003" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36713003" aria-label="flawed intelligence">flawed intelligence</a>.”</p>
    <p>Since the coronavirus took hold in the United States, senior officials in the Trump administration have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/...istration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/...istration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/...istration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html" aria-label="amplified rumors">amplified rumors</a> that the virus emerged from a virology lab in Wuhan. However, public health researchers have traced the earliest recorded cases of the virus to an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52369878" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52369878" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52369878" aria-label="animal market">animal market</a> in the city.</p>
    <p>Management at the Wuhan Institute of Virology have <a href="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...ology-Let-science-speak-QJeOjOZt4Y/index.html" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...ology-Let-science-speak-QJeOjOZt4Y/index.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...ology-Let-science-speak-QJeOjOZt4Y/index.html" aria-label="previously told Chinese state television">previously told Chinese state television</a> that such claims were “total fabrication” and that the lab had not encountered SARS-CoV-2 until samples from patients with an then unidentified pneumonia-like disease were referred to them in December.</p>
    <h3><strong>Scientific claims questioned</strong></h3>
    <p>Sørensen and Dalgleish’s work contradicts the international scientific consensus that although the coronavirus pandemic originated in Wuhan, there is no evidence that it had been artificially engineered.</p>
    <p>An analysis of the first 41 Covid-19 patients published in medical journal <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext# " target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext# " rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext# " aria-label="the Lancet">the Lancet</a> found that in 27 cases, there had been direct exposure to the Wuhan market, although not with the first known case. The World Health Organization has since <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/c...from-animals-to-humans-in-live-animal-markets" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.who.int/health-topics/c...from-animals-to-humans-in-live-animal-markets" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.who.int/health-topics/c...from-animals-to-humans-in-live-animal-markets" aria-label="released guidance">released guidance</a> to those working in and visiting such markets, to reduce animal-human transmission of emerging pathogens.</p>
    <p>The report’s authors also claim the lack of mutation in the virus since its discovery, suggests it was already fully adapted to humans. However, there have been several published studies noting evolution and mutation among SARS-CoV-2 strains.&nbsp;</p>
    <p>Sørensen told Norwegian broadcaster <a href="https://www.nrk.no/norge/norsk-fors...t-har-ikke-en-naturlig-opprinnelse-1.15043634" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.nrk.no/norge/norsk-fors...t-har-ikke-en-naturlig-opprinnelse-1.15043634" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.nrk.no/norge/norsk-fors...t-har-ikke-en-naturlig-opprinnelse-1.15043634" aria-label="NRK">NRK</a> that the virus has properties that differ greatly from SARS, another coronavirus, and have never been detected in nature. He claimed that China and the United States&#65279; have collaborated for many years on coronavirus research through "<a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/212431...ing-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/212431...ing-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/212431...ing-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop" aria-label="gain of function&quot; studies">gain of function" studies</a>, in which the pathogenicity or transmissibility of potential pandemic pathogens can be enhanced in order to understand them better.</p>
    <p>Gunnveig Grødeland works as a vaccine researcher at the University of Oslo. In a <a href="https://www.nrk.no/norge/norske-eks...et-har-oppstatt-pa-et-laboratorium-1.15044750" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.nrk.no/norge/norske-eks...et-har-oppstatt-pa-et-laboratorium-1.15044750" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.nrk.no/norge/norske-eks...et-har-oppstatt-pa-et-laboratorium-1.15044750" aria-label="rebuke of the original interview">rebuke of the original interview</a>, she told NRK that what Sørensen referred to as inserted sequences cannot be taken as evidence of a non-natural origin: “You will find this in several other viruses as well, including HIV. We have also seen something similar in other coronaviruses.”</p>
    <p>Other leading voices in the scientific community and fight against the pandemic has dismissed claims that the coronavirus was man-made. Anthony Fauci, director of U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has stated there is no <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...he-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...he-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...he-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/" aria-label="scientific evidence">scientific evidence</a> for the claims, while leading researchers from the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...w-about-origins-trump-chinese-lab-coronavirus" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...w-about-origins-trump-chinese-lab-coronavirus" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...w-about-origins-trump-chinese-lab-coronavirus" aria-label="World Health Organization and Galveston National Laboratory">World Health Organization and Galveston National Laboratory</a> also dismissed the rumours.</p>
    <p><strong>The report was allegedly previously rejected</strong></p>
    <p><em>The Telegraph</em> claimed that the study was initially rejected by several academic journals, including "Nature" and "Journal of Virology," which indicates they considered the article unsuitable for publication. Sørensen claimed the original study tied the vaccine development to the origin research, and that they have since split the research. He claimed a second study with more details on the origin of the virus will be published soon.</p>
    <p>The report published in the <em>Quarterly Review of Biophysics</em> explains the rationale for the development of Biovacc-19, a candidate vaccine for COVID-19 that is now in advanced preclinical development. Sørensen has a financial interest in Immunor, the Norwegian company&nbsp; behind the vaccine.</p>
    <p><strong>No, COVID-19 Coronavirus Was Not Bioengineered. Here’s The Research That Debunks That Idea (</strong><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...lab-study-shows-natural-origins/#78713f8a3728" target="_self" class="color-link" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...lab-study-shows-natural-origins/#78713f8a3728" data-ga-track="InternalLink:https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...lab-study-shows-natural-origins/#78713f8a3728" aria-label="Forbes">Forbes</a><strong>)</strong></p>
    <p><strong>Fauci, Top U.S. General Throw Cold Water On Trump’s Coronavirus Claim (</strong><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...ter-on-trumps-coronavirus-claim/#61214a84468b" target="_self" class="color-link" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...ter-on-trumps-coronavirus-claim/#61214a84468b" data-ga-track="InternalLink:https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...ter-on-trumps-coronavirus-claim/#61214a84468b" aria-label="Forbes">Forbes</a><strong>)</strong></p>
    <p><strong>The Controversial Rumor COVID-19 Originated In A Wuhan Lab Creeps Into The GOP Mainstream</strong> (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...-creeps-into-the-gop-mainstream/#6311ac04d4d1" target="_self" class="color-link" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...-creeps-into-the-gop-mainstream/#6311ac04d4d1" data-ga-track="InternalLink:https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...-creeps-into-the-gop-mainstream/#6311ac04d4d1" aria-label="Forbes">Forbes</a>)</p>
    <p><strong>A Timeline Of The COVID-19 Wuhan Lab Origin Theory</strong> (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...ovid-19-wuhan-lab-origin-theory/#54312f8a5aba" target="_self" class="color-link" title="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...ovid-19-wuhan-lab-origin-theory/#54312f8a5aba" data-ga-track="InternalLink:https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...ovid-19-wuhan-lab-origin-theory/#54312f8a5aba" aria-label="Forbes">Forbes</a>)</p></div>

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  11. HK_User

    HK_User A Productive Monkey is a Happy Monkey

    Until CCP opens their labs and all publications and notes, which most are reported to be destroyed, it is a no win.
     
  12. Merkun

    Merkun furious dreamer

    Good catch, Cat.

    Now, I am more than willing to buy into the generational theory. Moreover, I dare say that the generational span is longer than 20 years, what with gains in health and longevity. It won't take a lot of squinting at history and personality trends to figure out what was going on among the "thought" processes of the groupings. Do whatever you like with the thoughts, but how do you suppose free thinking and laissez-faire child raising came about? (Hm. Is Timothy Leary still using up my air?)
     
  13. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey

    Pretty much anything that doesn't go along with the agenda gets marginalized or censored. I've already started to download YT content that I see as reference material or controversial but accurate.
     
  14. Oddcaliber

    Oddcaliber Monkey+++

    Orwell 1984 coming true.
     
  15. Dont

    Dont Just another old gray Jarhead Monkey

    Link worked for me. Save as a PDF..
     
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