A world recession in the mix?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by HK_User, Aug 12, 2019.


  1. HK_User

    HK_User A Productive Monkey is a Happy Monkey Site Supporter

    Motomom34 likes this.
  2. DKR

    DKR Interesting ideas, interesting stories

    Inflation cannot be far behind. Big money chasing limited goods.and services....all the fault of Government ‘intervention’
     
    HK_User likes this.
  3. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

    Deutch bank derivitive failures in action....
     
    HK_User likes this.
  4. SB21

    SB21 Monkey+++

    Ya'll are speaking above my paygrade ,, but any preventitive precautions we need to take prior to a complete collapse ,, please let us know .
     
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  5. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

    They are not goin to let it collapse.... that is what all the 'trade negotiations are about. lol

    but you do want to have food and water on hand just in case ;D
     
  6. SB21

    SB21 Monkey+++

    Food , water , or access to ,, and a small stash o cash ,,, got it ,,,
     
    Dont likes this.
  7. aardbewoner

    aardbewoner judge a human on how he act,not on look and talk.

    It looks to world wide ponzi system is to collapse as the all do.
    The reason is not enough new people ! Ever wonder why governments promote more children and give benefits, even do we are short on water,food,housing and healthcare ?
     
    Motomom34 likes this.
  8. HK_User

    HK_User A Productive Monkey is a Happy Monkey Site Supporter

    To keep the Carousel going!
     
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  9. Oddcaliber

    Oddcaliber Monkey++

    I'm loaded up with my PM's, brass lead and steel!
     
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  10. Motomom34

    Motomom34 Monkey+++

    I was listening to a radio program. They were speculating that Americans could be seeing negative interest rate in the near future. Interesting speculation but I cannot imagine what our world would look like if it happened. I have been watching the market go down, metals go up. Real Estate prices are dropping, rents going up, food prices are up. I was talking to a lender and the magic credit score number used to be 720. The lenders always wanted to see 720 or better. Now according to the fella I spoke with he said the number is now 740 or better. I thought that was interesting and to me it said the mortgage companies are not as stable as they appear.
    PS- Argentina is having a bad week also.
     
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  11. BlueDuck

    BlueDuck Monkey++

    "They" are always saying something" I would too, if I could influence the markets with a few words. Lots of agenda's out there.
     
  12. Motomom34

    Motomom34 Monkey+++

    Agendas, speculations and plain BS. It is all out there and takes time to weed through it all to find the solid facts.
     
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  13. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Gold is now over $1500 ($1501 currently) and, of course, I am kicking myself for not purchasing when it was $1300 or lower because I thought it truly had a chance to go lower but...no. Frankly, I think $1300 is the new low for Gold, I said this before and didn't follow my own advice as still new to Precious Metals (PM) but I begin to believe more and more that we will not see gold go below $1300 in our lifetime, more likely, ever again.

    I look at gold as a real indicator of many things not just the economy but of society in general and certainly politics. And, for those that like to ignore politics (as my wife has done until recently) I would remind you it is a survival necessity in the 21st century.

    Personally, I foresaw the fall of Walgreens and CVS quite a while back, all one has to do is take a walk through their stores. As far as Negative Interest rates - well - isn't it amazing what you can do with a fiat currency. LOL! On the brighter side, it would be a fine time to refinance one's home.
     
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  14. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    I'd imagine you paying THEM will always remain positive (but who knows)....the negative rates will be to punish those holding cash in banks, and savers. ACTUAL rates with inflation/taxes factored in have been negative for quite some time....but when savers are finally slapped in the face with getting less back than they deposit, they will look for other places to put their money.

    Many will chose to simply buy goods now they would have bought in the future (which is one of the chief reasons for negative rates....to force consumers to consume) figuring out beating inflation actually is a positive return.

    Some will turn to precious metals......the fact they pay no interest beat negative rates, and if held in one's possession will be safer than bank deposits, as many banks will fail if consumers quit using them. You can look for increasing reluctance on the part of banks to allow you access to "your" money (legally, it ain't yours no more once you deposit it....as many are going to find out)
     
  15. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    @TnAndy "...the negative rates will be to punish those holding cash in banks, and savers."
    Maybe I misread but I thought this 'Negative Interest Rate' was strictly for mortgages? I don't think it is for accounts...I've never heard of them for accounts but maybe... I see negative interest rates as the same as the Car dealerships or the Furniture stores using interest free loans; they're hooks to catch you cause they won't be negative or interest free forever. It's a gimmick to suck you in...hell, I got one this week offering 5 years interest free for furniture...

    As far as holding cash in banks, it's rather stupid to do so; however, when the interest paid is so low that it is not worth tying your money up for year - well - I have done that - meaning - done nothing but let it sit there rather than give it to a bank and not being able to touch it.

    Actually, the interest paid on different securities are better than they have been in years; however, my data is a bit old now and I do not know the current rates. On CDs via brokerage firms, I'm getting 3% definitely not great but an improvement over the past years and I have a 2.5% (or is it 2.8%, I forget) on a bank issued one. I've no idea what the current mortgage rate is but it's pretty low, but definitely not negative. I don't hold a mortgage, thank God, so it's one less thing to worry about.

    As far as gold, I see it as a mediocre investment at best but great security to insure one's principal. Hell, it's the only security!
    I still don't hold gold - yet - but I will. It's just hard to do when gold is at $1500 and doesn't appear to be going down. I would think if Trump wins we will see gold pull back for a few years, if he doesn't it will go through the roof.
     
  16. Tempstar

    Tempstar Praeclarum Site Supporter+

    I watched and took notes in 2008. Building was off the chain, everyone had money, and my only struggle was hiring enough people to do the work. Then I noticed what I came to call the Mexican Index. All of the rental properties around were full of Mexicans (well, South Americans to be exact), and the job sites required you to speak a little Spanish to get anything done. Then almost overnight the Mexicans started leaving and soon after the economy took a crap. I'm sure everyone remembers the DOW dipping to 7,000. Building here almost stopped completely as the "new money" (my term for those that recently made fortunes on the stock market or other speculation ventures) panicked and quit spending. The custom homes I worked on were no more. I kept making a living by servicing the working class, who never really seemed to suffer providing they still had jobs. By the summer of 2009, there were few Mexican laborers left. In a year my Mexican Index went from 99 to 1.
    I started looking hard at the causes for the market drop, aside from what the talking heads were saying on TV. I think I have made a plausible but tin foil hat guess: The Market is manipulated by those at the top and allowed to rise as more people invest, making a few millionaires along the way. At some point, the big boys do what they need to do to make a correction, relieving those new money millionaires of their investment. I saw many multi-million dollar homes stop mid-construction and rot because the dividends stopped coming in and net worth's dropped almost overnight. The money moved, it didn't disappear.
    Right now, the Mexican Index around here is about 90, meaning I feel pretty good about the economy. I put more value in that than gold prices. As long as a billionaire can buy lots of gold and inflate the price by doing so, or sell millions in stock and make the price fall, I will never trust economic indicators that are based on market reports. It's just too damn easy to manipulate.
     
    Cruisin Sloth likes this.
  17. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    There are approximately 15 trillion dollars worth of govt bonds now worldwide that have a negative rate....up from 10 trillion about a year ago. Not so far in the US, but at some point it will hit here as well. That will eventually trickle down to bank savings.

    As far as consumer goods and cars, "zero percent" rates have always been a con job.....the true rate is simply rolled into the PRICE of the item to get "zero" on the financing. Offer to pay cash for a car, and you'll get a lower price.....the difference being the true cost of financing. It is not their willingness to get cash, they don't like it.....because they actually profit more if you accept the "zero" financing...but a sale is a sale and moves inventory, reducing the interest THEY are paying for having that inventory.

    EXACTLY what ZIRP & NIRP (zero/negative interest rate policy) are designed to do....and one of the reasons the stock market is so high. It forces savers to seek higher returns in riskier investments.

    Current rates are running about 3.5% for 15yr, and around 4% for 30yr. They haven't changed a lot in 10 years.

    Gold isn't an investment.....gold is money.....and everything else is credit, to quote JP Morgan. Everything else depends on someone else's ability to follow thru with an obligation of repayment. The eventual destruction of a currency will mean eventually that credit will cease to exist and you'll be left with money, or no money. The Chinese have been sucking the West dry of gold for decades now.....you'd be wise to "follow the money" and hold some. $1500 gold is merely a reflection of how crappy paper fiat has become.....if you think that is bad, wait until it hits 5,000....or no offer at all in paper currency.
     
  18. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

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  19. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

    we are about to see the fall of teh Federal REserve followed by teh IRS..... [pop][pop]
     
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  20. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    Wouldn't count them out too soon.....as their motto is "Making it harder to put food on your table since 1913"
     
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