Flu Avian Flu - Next Pandemic?

Discussion in 'Survival Medicine' started by Bear, Aug 11, 2005.

  1. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Has anyone here been following this developing threat?..... or is this topic already posted......
    I have and it scares the heck out of me..... I'm not a "doomer"... but you'll use all your preps and then some on this one if it develops into the next pandemic......
    I can list some links if anyone is interested.....
    Basically its a strain of bird flu that has developed into the potential next pandemic on the scale of the 1918 pandemic..... courtesy of China.... this virus has gone unchecked in migratory birds and officials are worried that the summer migratory patterns will spread it quickly.....
    I'll stop there.... but I will add that I have spoken with my daughters pediatrician, to confirm if this is something to worry about and he confirmed that this has them very worried...... :shock:
    Let me know if this is of interest here and we can fire up a real "survival bonfire" on this topic...... [beer]

  2. Minuteman

    Minuteman Chaplain Moderator Founding Member

    I have been watching this pretty closely too.My wife and several in-laws are all in the medical field and they have been talking about it for sometime.I think the whole medical community is worried about it.
  3. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Yup my daughter's pediatrician is on the board of his medical center.... man you should have seen his face when I brought it up..... :cry: my daughter has asthma and I'm quite concerned.... I also made sure her pneumonia vacs were all up to date....
    I think people should watch this as closely as they watch all the other indicators.... like anything else.... when it hits it will be too late to prepare.... if there is anything you can do to really prepare.....
    the stats look really bad for the U.S......
    Do you have any info to share being from the medical community?
    Do you think it will be helpful to post links for people to read and make up their own minds?.....

  4. Minuteman

    Minuteman Chaplain Moderator Founding Member

    Yeah if you have links go ahead and post them.This is a survival oriented site and this is certainly a survival issue.As far as any recommendations, I really haven't been studying it that much,but I will ask my wife about some common precautions.
  5. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Thanks Minuteman.....
    A couple are already bogged down with info.... also if you want to most up to date info do a new alert on your search engine... like I use Yahoo....

    Been some updates and the U.S. state department has updates as well....

    Here are some of web sites I watch....
    http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=40 THIS IS THE BEST IMHO
    Here's an interesting article about the rationing of Tamiflu
    here are the links for the NanoMask... I think this has promise... in a pinch N95 or N100 masks a better than nothing.... or your gas masks are just about the best....
  6. E.L.

    E.L. Moderator of Lead Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

  7. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Great links E.L......
    Hit the local newscast tonight here in Honolulu..... authorities are planning contingencies.... interesting... they showed a document for pandemic planning....

    I've read about plances for everything from strict quarantines to martial law like scenarios....

    Looks like if this thing hits big .... we're all gonna get a chance to use some of our survival skills and supplies to ride it out.....

    Not too scarey yet...... not as "sexy" as a terrorist attack, market crash or some other SHTF / TEOTWAWKI event..... but worth watching.....

  8. phishi

    phishi Psy-Ops Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Bear, I would be interested in knowing what the specifics of the contingency plans are.

    I don't have a hard time believing that this could occur. But I do have a hard time believing that we could do anything to stop it. I think that this would be on top of us before we even knew it. Most of the plans that I have heard of consist of identifying the sick, isolating/containing the sick, and treat the sick, all to avoid further contamination. The problem is that this would possibly be wide spread before we could ID those that are ill. Kinda scary.

    Not to raise anyone's blood pressure, but..... if that is the case, I don't see how we can protect ourselves against this. Unless you are living on your own private island when this hits, you are going to get some exposure. The best things that I have come up with are definately low tech.

    First, wash your hands. (Yeah, I know hard to get excited about a bar of soap & running water. b:: ) Studies have shown that the best way to stop the spread of infection, including to yourself, is hand washing. With that goes covering breaks in the skin. I don't know if any of these superbugs can get access to you this way, but why take the chance. At a minimum you are making sure that something else doesn't get into you.

    Second, influenza is respiratory in nature. That means that it has to get into your lungs in order to hurt you. I am guessing (please correct me if I'm wrong) that those of you with gas masks may have a leg up on those that do not. This tactic will only work however if you have it on. Since you can't easily wear a mask 24/7, and these will be in short supply if this ever comes to pass, the next best thing is to maintain some distance from your fellow man. Three feet is better than right next to you, six feet is better than 3, ect., ect. If you are picking up items from the idividual that you trying to avoid, wear some latex gloves.

    Finally, on a more personal level, draw some lines concerning what actions you will take with your loved ones, including yourself. If your significant other for instance, or yourself, or even your child, becomes sick, what will you do? Do you isolate them from yourself and the rest of the family? Do spend resources, which may be in short supply, to treat them? Do you risk exposure to get medicine from town? What do you do? These are hard questions, that only you and yours can decide. Make a plan, and stick with it, regardless of who is involved. Make sure that those around you understand what is expected of them. Give them a chance to talk about what is happening, and be flexible enough to allow them some choice in the final plan. It won't work if you don't help them to understand what is going on, and why the plan is in place.

    Sorry for the ramble, just some thoughts.
  9. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Hey Phishi,
    No worries on the rambling.... all good questions and I certainly don't have all the good answers.....
    Here's a great link on some preparations thoughts of alot of people.... http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=17139 keep in mind that this site is frequented by alot of folks in the medical community as well as those starved for information.... check it out and read through it...(its a ton of info)...... then check out the other posts.... this is the forum that I have found to be the best source of breaking news as well as discussion on the subject.... IMHO......
    You're right.... there's alot of tough questions you'll have to make and decisions to ponder.... I think its no different than or at least darn close to any disaster scenario alot of folks prepare for.... Biological threats, that are of this nature are a special problem.... I'm reading 2 books on the 1918 Pandemic, keeping in mind the travel and medical technology of the day, and its pretty darn sobering.....
    Yup... setting up a plastic lined room for quarantine of a loved one.... eye,ear, nose and mouth protection when you go out.... sheesh!... remember the anthrax scares.... the set up is similiar.... but its in your own house.... this stuff lives a long time in bird droppings as well..... Tamiflu, Nano Masks are things to check out for travel and prevention IMHO.....
    That's why its so important to stay on top of this one and as reasonably as possible get your supplies and prep now.... there's gonna a be a run on things when the news gets more "interesting" and the general public starts to get worried....
    Although I see it as no different as some of the Bug in or Bug out scenarios.... I think you'll use alot of your preps if not all of them on this one if it comes our way.... Read the thread carefully.... alot of people sick or dying means not alot of services or food..... biggest worry is where to put all the bodies....
    I have an older parent and a young daughter ..... I've informed my siblings in San Diego and San Antonio to prepare or at least be aware.... but you are correct.... if they are sick.... what am I going to do..... well.... going to the doctor if there is one and if there are facilities still operational and there is still room is Plan A.... but if not.... then I'm preparing , at least mentally, for what I need to do to make the best of it at home..... medications, supplies, oh and whatever "civil unrest" this may cause.....
    Read the thread.... its all there.... Its been a good exercise over the past months that I've been following this.... I found alot of my knowledge and experience on first aid, crisis management, hurricane preparations, "other" preparations etc.... all appy in this situation.... you may be better prepared than you think..... I'm just trying to make people aware.... they will make their own decisions for themselves and their family....
    Otherwise... between Iran, North Korean, Oil, Porous Borders, Terrorism, Real Estate Bubble, Fiat Currency, Tidal Waves, Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Volcanos, Red tides and the jerk at work.... hey its still a Beautiful Life.... go out and enjoy it..... me .... I go to Cold Stone Ice Cream and get a big cup of my favorite Flavor when the possibility of the "Perfect Storm" starts to really bog me down.....
    Sorry for the lengthy reply..... this is a good discussion.... don't forget to check out this forum..... and the Master Preps thread at the top....

  10. BRONZ

    BRONZ Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Tip: Remember....2 gallons of water per person per day. You can never have enough water including me.

    A lot of people talking about this.
  11. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Hey Bronz,
    Good to remember..... lots of fluids.... especially with the flu.... some gatorade or some type of replacement drink... foods are hard to go down when you're sick with the flu....
    Hey here's an interesting one I learned.... tylenol suppositories.... hard to take medication or swallow... pop a couple in to take care of fevers.... I have a little girl and I remember when she was little and sick.... that's what the doctor ordered to keep the fever down....
    Picked up some at the drug store for my medical kit.... you never know when you'll need something like that for other emergencies.....
    This Bird Flu thing, if nothing else, is giving me some good practical tips.....
  12. E.L.

    E.L. Moderator of Lead Moderator Emeritus Founding Member


    Corporations may start stockpiling bird flu drug

    by Ann Bagel on August 12, 2005

    In preparation for a possible bird flu pandemic, multinational
    corporations are being advised to stockpile the antiviral drug Tamiflu.

    According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, International SOS, a
    London-based company that provides medical and security services to 6,400
    corporations, is advising clients including Coca-Cola and Motorola to
    consider purchasing Tamiflu to protect employees and keep overseas
    businesses operating during a pandemic.

    Tamiflu can be used to treat or prevent regular flu and bird flu. In
    case of a pandemic, it would likely be administered to select groups once
    daily for about six weeks.

    The potential problem is that Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., the company that
    manufactures the entire global inventory of Tamiflu at a single Swiss
    plant, may not have capacity to meet growing demand for the drug.
    Limited supply has already pushed Tamiflu's price to more than $10 a pill in
    some places.

    Roche has significantly expanded its European production, however, and
    plans to begin making Tamiflu in as many as six U.S. facilities this

    Meanwhile, on Thursday senior Asian health officials agreed to set up a
    regional stockpile of drugs and vaccines that could be flown within
    hours to any country experiencing a human bird flu outbreak. It was not
    decided where the stockpile would be based or when countries would begin
    contributing to it.


    copyright 2005 Marketing & Technology Group

    For daily industry news coverage visit www.meatingplace.com




    www.chinaview.cn 2005-08-12 14:42:16

    。。BANGKOK, Aug. 12 (Xinhuanet) -- Asian countries threatened by the continuing bird flu epidemic agreed here Thursday to set up a centralized reserve center of anti-bird flu virus vaccine.

    Speaking after a meeting of public health ministers from 11 Asian countries affected by avian influenza, Thai Public Health Minister Suchai Charoenratanakul said that the idea to establish a single holding center for bird flu vaccine was endorsed by all the participating countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, the Philippines, China, Myanmar, Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan, Bhutan, Laos and Thailand, the Thai News Agency reported.

    Suchai said that stocking the medication in a single location should be made so that vaccine supplies could be flown to an outbreak location within 24 hours.

    He said the World Health Organization would investigate funding and supply options and undertake the implementation of the idea.

    In addition to the vaccine bank, the partner countries agreed to form a rapid information exchange network regarding bird flu and to lend technical support to one another, the report said. Enditem
  13. E.L.

    E.L. Moderator of Lead Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    It's Spreading

    It's Spreading.........

    Mass bird deaths found in European Russian region
    Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:41 PM BST
    Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS

    By Maria Golovnina

    MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is investigating mass bird deaths in a region to the west of the Ural mountains in what could become the first case of the deadly bird flu virus spreading to Europe, officials said on Wednesday.

    But Russia's chief animal health official said a preliminary analysis had shown the deaths in Kalmykia may not have been caused by the dangerous virus that can also kill humans.

    The Russian state health watchdog, in a statement posted on its Web site, said the bird deaths occurred on a farm in the Caspian region of Kalmykia -- 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from the region where Russia's first flu outbreak was reported.

    "This case is being investigated," the Federal Consumers' Rights and Welfare Watchdog said, adding no cases among humans had been confirmed in Russia.

    Russia has fought to contain a bird flu outbreak since mid-July when the first case of the disease was registered in Siberia and later in neighbouring Kazakhstan and Mongolia.

    The Agriculture Ministry said in a statement health and emergency officials had culled 113,000 birds in all affected regions -- from Novosibirsk to Kurgan -- to stop the disease from spreading.

    Officials fear migrating birds could export the virus to Western Europe, Africa and the Middle East over coming months.

    The H5N1 subtype of bird flu, confirmed in Kazakhstan and a number of Siberian regions, has killed more than 50 people in Asia since 2003.

    There was no final word on what had caused the Kalmyk deaths but Sergei Dankvert, chief animal and plant safety officer, said the birds may have died from an infection caused by parasitic worms.

    "The result of a preliminary analysis has not confirmed the existence of bird flu in the village of Manych ... in the republic," he told Itar-Tass news agency.

    Kalmykia is 1,800 km south of Moscow and is the only Buddhist region in Europe. Russia is one of the world's biggest poultry importers.


    Separately, Interfax news agency reported that health officials were looking into mass deaths of ducks near a reservoir in the Sverdlovsk region which borders a number of Urals regions hit by the virus.

    In Kazakhstan, the Emergencies Ministry said the death of more than 120 birds in a northern village was due to avian influenza, the sixth location in the country where a bird flu outbreak has been recorded.

    The prospect of its spreading has prompted warnings that the virus might mutate in humans and unleash a global influenza pandemic that could kill millions.

    A message from the U.S. embassy to Americans in Kazakhstan this week said the U.S. State Department was stockpiling an anti-viral medication, Tamiflu, to treat U.S. government employees and their families at its embassies in southeast Asia.

    © Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.
  14. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Yup... doesn't look good..... in a couple weeks it went from China to the Caspian Sea.... Knocking on Europe's door......
    How's this for a perfect storm..... another hurricane strikes the gulf, another earthquake generates a tsunami, oil skyrockets, real estate bursts, another terrorist strike on US soil and a nuclear threat in the middle east.....
    Glad we're all prepped to the gills...... ooops better start reading the survival posts again....... Glad you all started this up......
    Thanks for posting E.L..... Got Tamiflu?....

  15. E.L.

    E.L. Moderator of Lead Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Nope, wish I did though.
  16. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Yup... about 3 or 4 weeks ago.... it was pretty plentiful.... now I'm afraid its pretty tough to get your hands on some.... but not impossible :cry:
  17. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Don't be Scared!
    Fear will Kill

    I seriously question the Tamiflu doesn't work" stories coming out after many .mil bases have fully stocked up on it. Bear told me the base has 6 million doses in Hawaii....

    nothing to see here... move along....It's under control"
  18. Minuteman

    Minuteman Chaplain Moderator Founding Member

    Another thing to watch is what measures the Government comes up with to deal with it.
    Every "crises" seems to result in more police state measures being enacted "for the public good".
    And I am not so sure that this isn't a lot to do about nothing. 70 deaths worldwide in what? The last 1 or 2 years? Until I see this on our shores I am more afraid of Government overeaction. But then I am an admitted conspiracy nut. [tf]
  19. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    The govt mismanagment of 1918 made katrina look like a Prom Dance.
    The propaganda machines were working overtime peddlind disinfo and preaching Calmness, even as people were dropping like flies.

    I'm looking for under-reported Flu news on this one. I will be the first in my state to go into lockdown... Even if everyone just rolls their eyes at me. In 1918, Gunnison, CO was totally spared by putting up Road blocks and forbidding anyone/thing from coming in. They did have it easier as it started here more easterly and they could watch it roll in... If it kicks in here in the US, with travel like it is. I bet we'd have less than a day to really be safe by BI
  20. RightHand

    RightHand Been There, Done That RIP 4/15/21 Moderator Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    I've been hearing a little more about Avian Flu lately - at last - even though the source is a drug company who is developing a vaccine. At least it is some coverage being the topic to the forefront.
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