Flu Avian Flu Update.... You might want to read this....

Discussion in 'Survival Medicine' started by Bear, Oct 4, 2005.


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  1. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    FYI.... read carefully..... Thoughts?

    "Q Mr. President, you've been thinking a lot about pandemic flu and the risks in the United States if that should occur. I was wondering, Secretary Leavitt has said that first responders in the states and local governments are not prepared for something like that. To what extent are you concerned about that after Katrina and Rita? And is that one of the reasons you're interested in the idea of using defense assets to respond to something as broad and long-lasting as a flu might be?

    THE PRESIDENT: Yes. Thank you for the question. I am concerned about avian flu. I am concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world. I am -- I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean. I tried to get a better handle on what the decision-making process would be by reading Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918. I would recommend it.

    The policy decisions for a President in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult. One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country, and how do you then enforce a quarantine? When -- it's one thing to shut down airplanes; it's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to effect a quarantine? One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move.

    And so that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have. I noticed the other day, evidently, some governors didn't like it. I understand that. I was the commander-in-chief of the National Guard, and proudly so, and, frankly, I didn't want the President telling me how to be the commander-in-chief of the Texas Guard. But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the President to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe, or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak.

    Secondly -- wait a minute, this is an important subject. Secondly, during my meetings at the United Nations, not only did I speak about it publicly, I spoke about it privately to as many leaders as I could find, about the need for there to be awareness, one, of the issue; and, two, reporting, rapid reporting to WHO, so that we can deal with a potential pandemic. The reporting needs to be not only on the birds that have fallen ill, but also on tracing the capacity of the virus to go from bird to person, to person. That's when it gets dangerous, when it goes bird-person-person. And we need to know on a real-time basis as quickly as possible, the facts, so that the scientific community, the world scientific community can analyze the facts and begin to deal with it.

    Obviously, the best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins. As you know, there's been a lot of reporting of different flocks that have fallen ill with the H5N1 virus. And we've also got some cases of the virus being transmitted to person, and we're watching very carefully.

    Thirdly, the development of a vaccine -- I've spent time with Tony Fauci on the subject. Obviously, it would be helpful if we had a breakthrough in the capacity to develop a vaccine that would enable us to feel comfortable here at home that not only would first responders be able to be vaccinated, but as many Americans as possible, and people around the world. But, unfortunately, there is a -- we're just not that far down the manufacturing process. And there's a spray, as you know, that can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease, which is in relatively limited supply.

    So one of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic. In other words, can we surge enough production to be able to help deal with the issue?

    I take this issue very seriously, and I appreciate you bringing it to our attention. The people of the country ought to rest assured that we're doing everything we can: We're watching it, we're careful, we're in communications with the world. I'm not predicting an outbreak; I'm just suggesting to you that we better be thinking about it. And we are. And we're more than thinking about it; we're trying to put plans in place, and one of the plans -- back to where your original question came -- was, if we need to take some significant action, how best to do so. And I think the President ought to have all options on the table to understand what the consequences are, but -- all assets on the table -- not options -- assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant. "

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/10/20051004-1.html
     
    Bear, Oct 4, 2005
    #1
  2. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Sounds like it's more than a Scenario game to me
     
    melbo, Oct 4, 2005
    #2
  3. monkeyman

    monkeyman Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Yup, and Im not sure which is more scary, the chances of the flu not being able to be quarentined or giveing the government the authority to use our military to enforce the governments will on us, after all 'emergency' is a relative term and so the fact that it would only be for emergency purposes means only that they hollar that thier will is an emergency, at least the first few times.
     
    monkeyman, Oct 4, 2005
    #3
  4. phishi

    phishi Psy-Ops Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    I'm not sure that it can be contained.

    phishi
     
    phishi, Oct 4, 2005
    #4
  5. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    It can't, Birds fly
     
    Quigley_Sharps, Oct 5, 2005
    #5
  6. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    Unless you kill everything in that area at once
     
    Quigley_Sharps, Oct 5, 2005
    #6
  7. swinefornicator

    swinefornicator Monkey+++ Founding Member

    and the real scary part

    is what Quig just said. Quarantines are worthless for this. Bringing in the military is only so they have the ol' thumb on the survivors. The mentioned 1918 outbreak is only interesting and important since the records were pretty fair for the time. Flu has been a massive global killer forever.

    Heres one for you:
    Say ahmad the terrorist goes to se asia in hopes of catching the flu. Rapes a couple hundred chickens and kisses every sick whore he can find. Flys to here or Canada etc.

    Welcome home.........

    PF
     
    swinefornicator, Oct 5, 2005
    #7
  8. phishi

    phishi Psy-Ops Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Glad to see you are as nervous as me.

    phishi
     
    phishi, Oct 5, 2005
    #8
  9. TLynn

    TLynn Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    You can't kill everything in the area at once...without doing more damage.

    You can't contain it, you can't quarantine it (except people wise - and I'm not sure that's really possible - even with what the President is trying to get Congress to let him do).

    However...

    Welcome to the third world (this is not the country we used to know).
     
    TLynn, Oct 5, 2005
    #9
  10. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    I thinking of that movie with Dustin Hoffman.... "Outbreak" :eek:
    What was that big drum that they were gonna drop on that town?.....
     
    Bear, Oct 5, 2005
    #10
  11. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    I have been banging my head against the wall in laying the foundation for this scenario with my wife. Last night I brought it up and finally the light bulb went on. She said, "So, if our state was quarantined and we wanted to get out, we would be forced to stay here and ride it out because the .gov didn't want us to protect our family and get out of here? Well, we need to have an alternative to that that gives us time to ride out the epedimic." Well, after 1.5 years, she is catching on. I have the opportunity to purchase 20 acres in the UP for cheap and put a small cabin on it. I have been considering this soley as an initial bug out scenario like the avian flu. For about $35,000 I could buyland and build a metal building with a garage and a single living/family room and a well and septic and enough space to store a year's worth of food. I have a friend with 120 acres adjacent and his wife's family lives there and could check on the property weekly. Not sounding so bad right now.
     
    Clyde, Oct 5, 2005
    #11
  12. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    That's a good point Clyde....
    All those folks with "bug out locations" out of state..... may not be able to get out.... Plan C ?.....
    Bug In plans need to be reviewed.... or watch this and other developments and plan to get out early before a "quarantine".....
    Lots of chatter on this one all over the net....
    I wonder what they know that their not sharing..... :eek:
     
    Bear, Oct 5, 2005
    #12
  13. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Posse Comitatus Act

    Some background....

    http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/politics/3377358

    "Oct. 1, 2005, 7:20PM



    Bush considers changes to Posse Comitatus Act
    Both right and left wary of giving domestic police power to military
    By STEWART M. POWELL
    Copyright 2005 Hearst News Service

    WASHINGTON - The law is from a bygone era, it has a Latin name and it's never led to a prosecution, much less a conviction.

    ADVERTISEMENT
    Yet the mere hint that President Bush might try to tinker with the 1878 Posse Comitatus Act is stirring opposition across the political spectrum, prompting conservative and liberal activists to line up against any move that would empower U.S. troops to shoot or arrest civilian looters in the chaotic aftermath of national disasters.

    The Civil War-era law bars federal troops from carrying out law enforcement duties inside the United States during peacetime, short of suppressing an insurrection. Congress enacted the prohibition to curtail alleged excesses by union" occupation forces in former Confederate states after the Civil War.


    Law up for review
    Bush signaled that the law was up for review when he said in a nationally televised address from New Orleans on Sept. 15 that the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina showed "a challenge on this scale requires greater federal authority and a broader role for the armed forces."

    White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan later said revision or repeal of the Posse Comitatus Act was an issue that "needs to be looked at" by Congress and the administration, adding that officials are in the "early planning of discussing it."

    Some of the initial impetus for changing the law stemmed from a public outcry over some hurricane victims in New Orleans exploiting the chaos to loot appliance outlets, jewelry shops and clothing stores before police, National Guard troops or active duty soldiers reached flooded areas.

    Amid more recent indications that initial reports of lawlessness were exaggerated, concerns over giving federal troops wider authority have moved to center stage.


    Potential for misuse
    Paul Weyrich, a conservative activist who heads the Free Congress Foundation, says granting military commanders authority to carry out arrests, searches or seizures would risk potential misuse to crush political dissent.

    Another reason he's against giving military commanders that power is that such a move could erode citizens' faith in the armed forces. "That would be the end of the all-volunteer military and a sure way to bring back the draft," Weyrich contends.

    The American Civil Liberties union" also opposes any changes.

    "We need accountability for the failed response in New Orleans rather than trying to scapegoat legal restrictions that didn't affect the outcome," says Tim Edgar, the lawyer handling national security policy issues for the organization.

    "The problems in New Orleans had nothing to do with federal troops being unable to enforce the law."

    That view is largely shared at the Pentagon, where Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is quietly working to slow, if not torpedo, any changes. Law enforcement is "a very narrow piece of the task of dealing with a catastrophic difficulty or problem," Rumsfeld emphasized last week.


    72,000 troops deployed
    Nearly 72,000 troops were deployed in Gulf Coast states in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, including 22,000 active duty troops under presidential command and 50,000 National Guard troops under the command of governors in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas.

    Outside experts see little need to revamp the law. Active duty armed forces already have authority to provide humanitarian relief and to quell insurrections with or without a state request. Military rules of engagement routinely permit U.S. troops to defend themselves if fired upon.

    James S. Gilmore III, the former Republican governor of Virginia who led the Congressional Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction, says "nothing in the response to the hurricanes makes it necessary to change that law."

    Michael A. Wermuth, director of homeland security issues at the Rand Corp., says wider legal authorities are unnecessary — "maybe just a little tweaking."


    Old legal traditions
    The law, with the Latin title that means "power of the county," draws upon the centuries-old legal traditions that empower sheriffs or other local law enforcement officers to deputize a "posse" of civilians to help enforce the law.

    The act stipulates up to two years' imprisonment and fines of up to $10,000 for violations.

    Even with the restrictions of the Posse Comitatus Act, a president has wide leeway to order active duty federal forces to carry out law enforcement duties under various exceptions enacted by Congress over the years and provisions of the Insurrection Act, originally adopted in 1809.

    President George H.W. Bush ordered nearly 4,000 federal troops into Los Angeles in 1992 at the request of California Republican Gov. Pete Wilson to quell racial rioting after the acquittal of Los Angeles police officers in the videotaped beating of black motorist Rodney King.

    President Kennedy ordered federal troops into Oxford, Miss., in 1962 and President Eisenhower ordered federal troops into Little Rock, Ark., in 1957 to enforce federal desegregation laws.

    Federal troops also have provided indirect support for civilian law enforcement actions, helping to combat illegal drug trafficking in the 1980s; and patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border in the 1990s."

    http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1251/MR1251.AppD.pdf

    This one is a general overview of the act.....

    "thing that make you go.... hmmmmmmmmm"
     
    Bear, Oct 5, 2005
    #13
  14. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    The benefits of living in the High Mnt areas, I can walk to my bug out in 2 days from my new home.
     
    Quigley_Sharps, Oct 5, 2005
    #14
  15. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    Do not kid your self. [peep]
    It will be done for the greater good of man kind :eek:
     
    Quigley_Sharps, Oct 5, 2005
    #15
  16. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    October 8, 2005
    Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
    By GARDINER HARRIS

    WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

    A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

    If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.

    The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

    The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents that would justify quarantines. Written by health officials, the plan does yet address responses by the military or other governmental departments.

    The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.

    It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within six months, more than 10 times the present capacity.

    On Friday, President Bush invited the leaders of the nation's top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.

    In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration's efforts to plan for a possible pandemic flu have become controversial, with many Democrats in Congress charging that the administration has not done enough. Many have pointed to the lengthy writing process of the flu plan as evidence of this.

    But while the administration's flu plan, officially called the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan, closely outlines how the Health and Human Services Department may react during a pandemic, it skirts many essential decisions, like how the military may be deployed.

    "The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."

    Still, the official, who asked for anonymity because the plan was not supposed to be distributed, called the plan a "major milestone" that was "very comprehensive" and sorely needed.

    The draft provided to The Times is dated Sept. 30, and is stamped "for internal H.H.S. use only." The plan asks government officials to clear it by Oct. 6.

    Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt, responded, "We recognize that the H.H.S. plan will be a foundation for a governmentwide plan, and that process has already begun."

    Ms. Pearson said that Mr. Leavitt has already had one-on-one meetings with other cabinet secretaries to begin the coordination process across the federal government. But she emphasized that the plan given to The Times was a draft and had not been finalized.

    Mr. Leavitt is leaving Saturday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations, where he will meet with health and agriculture officials to discuss planning for a pandemic flu. He said at a briefing on Friday that the administration's flu plan would be officially released soon. He was not aware at the briefing that The Times had a copy of the plan. And he emphasized that the chances that the virus now killing birds in Asia would become a human pandemic were unknown but probably low. A pandemic is global epidemic of disease.

    "It may be a while longer, but pandemic will likely occur in the future," he said.

    And he said that flu planning would soon become a national exercise.

    "It will require school districts to have a plan on how they will deal with school opening and closing," he said. "It will require the mayor to have a plan on whether or not they're going to ask the theaters not to have a movie."

    "Over the next couple of months you will see a great deal of activity asking metropolitan areas, 'Are you ready?' If not, here is what must be done," he said.

    A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage distribution for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, National Guard and other national security groups were left out.

    Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, the police, firefighters and government leaders are next.

    The plan also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million courses of antiviral treatment. The administration has bought 4.3 million.

    The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the Department of Defense.

    Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television movie-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic situation that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."

    "Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.

    The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. The scientists discover that "the vaccine developed previously for the avian strain will only provide partial protection," the plan states.

    In June, federal health officials find airline passengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities," the plan states. By July, small outbreaks are being reported around the nation. It spreads.

    As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid of becoming sick. Hospitals are overwhelmed.

    "Social unrest occurs," the plan states. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories." Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed.

    Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.

    Lawrence K. Altman contributed reporting for this article.

    Even the .gov knows what will happen1
     
    Clyde, Oct 8, 2005
    #16
  17. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    I think the only thing we can do is to make sure our own immune systems are in tip top shape... Now's a good time to get into better shape. Start taking a multi vitamin if you aren't already.

    Also, we went down to the family clinic and got 4 scripts for Tamiflu. Not a guarantee but better than nothing. I personally witnessed Tamiflu halt my fathers Flu last year. I've also heard that I'm not alone and it is "flying off the shelves"
     
    melbo, Oct 20, 2005
    #17
  18. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Yup.... I think we should prepare for taking care of ourselves on this one... no different from normal disaster preps you should be doing.... and then ramp it up for the lessons learned by the recent hurricanes...
    Glad to hear you were able to get the Tamiflu for your family..... I also hear there is a or is going to be a shortage... especially when the general public wakes up on this and realizes what they need to do....
    Melbo is giving good advice.... take care of your health.... oh and make sure your vacs are all up to date.... especially Pneumonia vacs.... its a secondary lung infection that can kill you pretty quick with this flu or any flu for that matter.... wouldn't hurt to make sure your shots are all up to date anyway... just finished my up with a pneumonia vac on Monday....
    Keep an eye on this one.... a second wave seems to be hitting Asia and new deaths are popping for the first time in countries there....
     
    Bear, Oct 20, 2005
    #18
  19. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Do they make Cuban Cigars with an inhalable "all-in-one" vaccination? :D
     
    melbo, Oct 20, 2005
    #19
  20. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    If they do..... I'll take two ! [beer]
     
    Bear, Oct 20, 2005
    #20
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