Euro dead in 5 years

Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by Tango3, Jun 6, 2010.


  1. Tango3

    Tango3 Aimless wanderer





    1. Home
    2. Finance
    3. Finance Topics
    4. Budget

    <!-- googleon: all -->
    Euro 'will be dead in five years'

    The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph.



    By Edmund Conway
    Published: 10:23PM BST 05 Jun 2010
    10 Comments


    [​IMG] The survey's findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office


    The single currency is in its death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the survey – the first major wide-ranging litmus test of economic opinion in the City since the election. The findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.

    Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided. The finding is only one of a number of remarkable conclusions, including that:







    Euro 'will be dead in five years' - Telegraph
     
  2. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    1.18 now.. dude, once the Euro hits parity with the USD, it's done for. People won't bother in investing in a currency that is not the world currency but has the same value or less and has been marred by countries with massive debt. Right now, it's just gaining momentum and no Central Bank can save it.
     
  3. Tango3

    Tango3 Aimless wanderer

    Make sense to me;I only feign (fake) understanding all this financial foo-foo raw...
     
  4. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    I can't see that it makes a lot of difference. Both the USD and Euro are hampered by debt. Both can recover given time and fiscal restraint. I can see where the pigs can maul the Euro more easily than (say) Vermont can maul the dollar, but other than that, what's the preference?
     
  5. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    We can go full bore on our printing presses and they can't and the dollar is still currently the reserve currency. If you think a Fiat currency can recover, then I point you to Rome and the currency called the Denarius which started out as Silver and ended up at .02% silver at the time of Rome's demise. The only TRUE money is gold and silver.
     
  6. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    I didn't intend to ring PMs into the equation, nor to ignore the lessons of history. What I intended was to point out that whatever the fiat currency might be, it is subject to the same rules. I can see the dollar as continuing as the preferred medium of exchange simply because our individual states will be less able to muck up the value (whatever it may be) of the FRN. The EU doesn't have the relative political stability between its states to dampen the swings of value in the Euro.

    As far as I'm concerned, the "full faith and credit" of the US is still better than the full faith and credit of the EU. And don't jump on me about that, I know it's shaky at best.
     
  7. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    Ok, let me rephrase my statement.

    You have 2 rooms. Both are on fire but one has less fire and can last a bit longer than the other room. Which room do you run to?
     
  8. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    Point taken but beggars the question. I'm going for the one with water, not the one with metals. That said, I read the tea leaves to forecast that FRNS will outlast the euro. Both are circling the drain, but the FRN is floating higher.

    At the end of the day, what will be needed is commodities that will be in high demand, emphasis on commodities. I can't eat paper, no matter what the engraving plates put on it, nor will pms do a lot for my digestion.
     
  9. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    I think you and I are on the same thought cycle here. Yes, the FRN will outlast the EURO, and yes, they are both circling the drain...and yes, commodities will most likely be the safest bet. I was more or less trying to point out the when parity is hit, the shift will be to the room with less fire which will last longer but will eventually burn up as well, i.e. the FRN.. and then into commods.
     
  10. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    Yup, same page. The question will be what particular commodity? I'm thinking stuff that will grow, replenishable. That rules out, par ex, pms and ammunition. Talent and knowledge will be king, once the ravening hordes are thinned out.
     
  11. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    I think in the immediate and shorter run that your statement will be proven true. After some semblance of recovery, i.e. a PROPER economy has been established, that we will see pm's as coinage once again and HOPEFULLY, no Central Bank.
     
  12. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!

    I doubt it will ever happen. There is just too much to be gained in manipulating fake money. At least it won't end without a long bloody fight.
     
  13. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    Manipulation is only possible when people being manipulated (those involved in trading forex) are agreeable to it, don't care, or have the perception of being able to make money. In case you haven't noticed, the game is rigged and they're not buying it, literally. So many people are sitting on their cash that it's not funny any more.. and I mean that.. it's really not funny any more. They're all in disbelief about how bad things are dislocated and when it seems things are going one direction, algo's kick in or central banks intervene and it goes the other direction.. people lose a lot of money that way. Nope, it's so volatile that people are just taking a step back and watching the show from the outside in and it's become so blatantly obvious now that computers are involved in shuffling around money that there as been a noticeable reduction in traders willing to play the game. They're all like "WALL HACK!" and leave the game because they know they can't win and they know cheaters always screw the up the game for everyone else and sooner or later, you're left with a bunch of cheaters playing that game while the honest ones go play something else.
     
  14. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!

    I'm not referring to the current state of affairs but to the whole concept of fiat money in general. No one in power ever wants to settle for asset backed currency. Most current fiat currencies are a mess, but all those in charge long for a day when great gains were to be had by the stretching and kneading that fiat currency affords. They won't easily part with those ideas.
     
  15. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    Agreed, but that means denying humanity as well as math and that has never worked.
     
  16. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!

    They don't care about humanity and the math has ALWAYS worked for them.
    Fiat money is a form of slavery.
     
  17. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    It worked right up until the point that it didn't and the slaves revolted.
     
  18. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!

    We're still waiting for that type of revolt. A few bottles thrown in Greece doesn't get us there yet.
    The last time we had a real revolt resulted in the US constitution which had a lot of protections for currency built in. Then ~ 150 years later, we have the federal reserve, and we're right back to fiat.

    All I'm saying is that governments all tend towards tyranny and fiat is a tool of tyranny. In the course of human history, freedom has been rare and short lived. Sad but true.
    I'd have to be a heck of an optimist to think that it will change this time around.. Might give that a try - I could afford to lose the frown for a while ;)
     
  19. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    I subscribe to that same notion on a wider scale. On a personal level, well.. lets just say " I refuse to comply" ;)

    I have tried to remain optimistic, but it just seems that once those who actually experienced the suffering and hardships of a depression are dead, we lose our collective memories on how to avoid returning to those lows in life.
     
survivalmonkey SSL seal        survivalmonkey.com warrant canary
17282WuJHksJ9798f34razfKbPATqTq9E7