Fasten your seatbelts

Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by melbo, Aug 10, 2007.

  1. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    The no smoking sign has been turned off.
    I think the 'ride' has begun and I feel that most are still oblivious.

    Watched the network guys who have to wear makeup before they can talk to us say that everything is alright and we should be BUYING into this market... WTF??

    Everything you hear from the News, your banker, your REALTOR, and your neighbor is carefully planted propaganda; placed to part you and what's left of your money.

    I know you can't eat Gold but you also can't eat your evaporated Roth IRA or 401k in 20 yrs if ITS GONE!!!

    The world saw 6.9 TRILLION in market value evaporate this week.
    The FED declared yeaterday that it would NOT intercede in the markets and then did so 3 time 24 hours later. Central banks (Like the Fed), around the world injected 384 Billion in loans this week. (That is 384,000 piles of ONE MILLION dollars.)

    This is about as smart as pulling out the whip on your exhausted and dying horse to win the race. The horse is still going to lay down at some point...

    There has never seemed to be much interest in the state of the economy around here and many of you may hear the term 'subprime' and think it doesn't effect you but it does and will and will continue to effect us all for the next few yrs. Sub-prime is just the current scapegoat for a situation that has been set up long ago.

    The perfect storm is on the horizon.
  2. griffin1340

    griffin1340 Monkey+++

    I think you are right. The clouds are just starting to build, and this will make Katrina look like a spring shower.

    Well, my folks made it through 1929...I will too.
  3. ChemicalGal

    ChemicalGal Monkey+++

    i am an elderly person, but I was born after the depression. But I can remember my husbands parents thinking they were lucky, they lived on a farm and had only turnips to eat one year. The reason they were lucky....they had those turnips, a lot of people didn't.

    If the FEDs continue to bail out the stock market, prices on everything people buy are going to go up. From one week to the next, hamburger at wally world in my area went up $2.00 for 5.5#. A grape drink the family likes went from 2.50 to 3.68 a 12 pack. That's just 2 examples, I'm sure everyone can come up with more. So if they continue with this bail out these prices are going to look good.

    So we are going to finance it one way or another. I think Monday will be more of the same. People, even the sheeple are starting to worry and getting out of the markets, losing their homes and struggling to put food on the table. This is real life and it's getting bad.....the frog is almost done.
  4. Tango3

    Tango3 Aimless wanderer

    Uh alex, I'll take"Things that make you go hmmmm...." for 1000...
  5. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    The beginning of the week should be "mild".... PPT will intercede in a big way....
    Mid to end of the week will get "wild" as the "weary" panic....
    Watch the last hour of trading everyday... and listen for the "cracks" in the foundation....
    Printing presses are being greased and revved up....
    All those "billions" take tons of paper... so orders for paper must be up....[winkthumb]

    Time to revisit your strategies.... some may no longer apply or new ones you never considered may need to be considered...

    Melbo has a good point... people would be wise to listen and ponder and then act if they can... no panic here... Think..... "Deep Survival"....


    Click on the theme song above in the stickies....

    "Don't Worry... Be Happy"[LMAO]
  6. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Fair Use

    Lessons for today's market in 1907 panic

    Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:42AM EDT
    By Jennifer Coogan
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The current upheaval in global markets has many on Wall Street drawing comparisons to turmoil seen in 1998, 1987 and even 1929, but a new book suggests investors should look back as far as 1907 for insight into the mechanisms that can trigger a crash.
    "The Panic of 1907" (Wiley, $29.95) begins with the Park Avenue suicide of Charles Barney, a prominent New York banker. Barney was one of many casualties -- both individual and institutional -- of an attempt to corner the market in shares of United Copper Co., which brought a string of banks to the brink of collapse.
    Authors Robert Bruner and Sean Carr illustrate the domino-effect of the panic, from the plunge in United Copper shares all the way to the bankruptcy threat for the city of New York. "The Panic of 1907" also paints a picture of the many conditions that made the economy vulnerable to such a brutal chain reaction.
    Timed to coincide with the 100th anniversary of one of the worst financial meltdowns in U.S. history, the book's arrival on shelves in September is all the more fortuitous, since even mom-and-pop investors are now aware of the volatility that has gripped Wall Street over the past few weeks.
    Some of the conditions that laid the ground for 1907 panic may look familiar to anyone who has read the business pages this year: a booming economy and unprecedented rash of corporate mergers and acquisitions and a profusion of "borrowers and creditors (who) overreach in their use of debt."
    "Credit anorexia" set in once "bank directors awoke to the inadequacy of their capitalization relative to the credit risks they had taken," causing them to cut off the new loans available to their clients. Soon afterwards, long lines of panicked depositors were forming outside several banks waiting to withdraw their funds.
    Bruner and Carr, both professors at the University of Virginia, identify seven elements that can converge to create a financial "perfect storm," no matter what the century. Key among them is some kind of real economic shock. In the case of 1907, one of the shocks was the San Francisco earthquake the year before.
    If such a storm were to strike today, we wouldn't be able to identify the shock until after it hit, the authors point out. But one of the potential culprits they cite are the high amounts of leverage used by hedge funds and their tight relationships with major banks, which could make any losses ripple through the financial system.
    In 1907, it was J. Pierpont Morgan who led the charge to stop the bleeding on Wall Street. Bruner and Carr credit the financial titan with putting his own firm's capital on the line to save smaller banks from collapse, compelling his counterparts to act as a collective to stave off contagion.
    One hundred years later, Bruner and Carr pose the question, does today's rapid, automated style of trading leave any room for such a cooperative rescue effort, should such a panic occur again?
  7. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Fair Use

    [​IMG]Dow TheoryBY TIM W. WOOD
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Many proclaim that the recent decline below the June 2007 lows by the Industrials and the Transports served to trigger a Dow theory sell signal. Based on the evidence as I read the averages, this is not the case.[/FONT]
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]The extended advance up out of the 2002/2003 lows has proven to be one of the longest advances in stock market history. As a result, it has proven that the single most important aspect of Dow theory is price, and that what we may perceive as value or a given market phasing is in fact secondary. In other words, price itself is the single most important aspect of Dow theory and the old time Dow theorists knew it.[/FONT]
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]In Robert Rhea’s work titled The Story of the Averages, it is made very clear by the numerous examples that confirmation of a Primary up trend occurs when both averages better their previous Secondary High Point, and that a Primary down trend is established when both averages violate their previous Secondary Low Point.[/FONT]
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Moving on to the chart below and according to this basic principle of Dow theory, the Primary Trend turned up, or in Rhea’s words it was “authoritatively established as bullish,” way back in June 2003 when the 2002 Secondary highs were bettered. Since that time the averages have made six consecutively higher advances. Each of these advances have established yet a higher Secondary High and Low Point with the last joint closing high that occurred on July 19th having marked the 6th Secondary High Point since the 2002/2003 lows. Many are looking at the joint decline below the June 2007 lows as having violated the previous Secondary Low Point and thereby confirming the Primary Trend as being down. I do not believe this to be correct because the June lows were not, in my opinion, sufficient enough to be classified as having marked a Secondary Low Point. It is my belief that the decline from the July 19th joint high marked the beginning of the decline into a new Secondary Low Point. Thus, the market is still fishing for the next Secondary Low Point, and at this time, the previous Secondary Low point also remains intact. Therefore, from my perspective of Dow theory, the Primary Trend remains bullish.[/FONT]​
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]We also find in Robert Rhea’s writings this specific quote about the transition between bull and bear markets. “Under Dow’s theory the primary trend, once authoritatively established as bullish, is considered to be continuing in force until negated by a confirmed bearish indication such as would be the case when, after a reaction of full secondary proportions in a bull market, a rally fails to lift both averages to new high ground, and a later decline carries both averages below the preceding secondary low.”[/FONT]
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]If we apply what Rhea is saying here to the current market, the averages would first have to establish a Secondary Low Point, which again I believe it is now doing. Then, from that low the averages will have to fail to better the July 19th highs and then turn down below the Secondary Lows that are now being established in order to confirm that the Primary Trend has turned from bullish to bearish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Therefore, based on the fact that the averages have not yet violated their previous Secondary Low Points, nor have the averages experienced a failed rally followed by a decline below their previous Secondary Low Points, I cannot find justification to say that the Primary Trend, in accordance to the Dow theory, has turned bearish.[/FONT]
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Now, looking at the market from a cyclical and statistical perspective, which has absolutely nothing to do with Dow theory, all indications continue to suggest that the market is extremely over extended in what has now become the second longest advancing 4-year cycle in stock market history. The Dow theory simply has not confirmed a Primary Trend change at this point. Anyway, this extended move has obviously been fueled by the liquidity campaign to keep the market advancing.[/FONT]
    [FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]However, even the Fed can only do so much. The intermediate-term internals have been fading as the markets “broke out” into their recent new highs. New lows are registering readings not seen in years and the intermediate-term breadth indicators that I follow have been weak for months. The issue now is that the market has become so stretched on such weak internals that it is becoming increasingly harder to keep the advance going. I believe that the Fed understands the house of cards very well and an example of this came with the massive liquidity infusion reported by CNBC on Thursday when the market once again began to soften. There are two noteworthy points to be made here. One, the Fed knows the danger of the market and stepped in with the liquidity to try to save it on Thursday, but it still fell some 387 points. So, it is getting harder and harder to save. Two, if the market wasn’t at great risk, do you think the Fed would be taking the measures that they are? No, they are afraid to let any reasonable correction begin because they know the risk of an implosion. Maybe the market can be saved again and maybe it can’t. But, it really doesn’t matter because even if it is saved again, it will be on even worse internals and create even greater complacency. The market is stretched well beyond any historical norm and this cannot continue forever. Ultimately the Fed is fighting a losing battle. The internals stink and the decline into the now very extended 4-year cycle low is coming, and there will ultimately be nothing the Fed can do to stop it. You have been warned![/FONT]
    Tim W. Wood
  8. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Fair Use

    [FONT=times new roman, times]THE UNFOLDING CRISIS[/FONT]
    [FONT=times new roman, times]An Interview with Doug Casey[/FONT]
    [FONT=times new roman, times]by Casey Research[/FONT]
    [FONT=verdana,arial]August 11, 2007[/FONT]

    <CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=650><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%"><CENTER></CENTER>[​IMG]Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research is a renowned investor, best-selling author and editor of the monthly newsletter International Speculator, now in its 27<SUP>th</SUP> year of providing independent-minded investors with unbiased recommendations on investments with the potential to double or better within a 12-month horizon. He has made it his life’s work to study financial crisis and how investors can protect themselves and profit, sharing his results in New York Times best-sellers such as Crisis Investing and Strategic Investing.
    With global markets in turmoil, we turned to Doug to give us his interpretation of the big picture.
    Q. The dollar is under increasing pressure. Do you think it’s realistic that the U.S. dollar could lose its status as the world’s reserve currency anytime soon? What are the implications and how soon do you think it could happen?
    A. The U.S. dollar will eventually reach its intrinsic value; it’s simply a question of time. The Forever War in the Middle East is greatly accelerating the process. The whole idea of a reserve currency is meaningless if the currency is backed by nothing but the good will of the issuing government. That’s why gold has always been used as money; you don’t have to rely on anyone’s full faith and credit, good will, competence, trade surpluses, self-restraint or anything else. And it’s why gold will again be used, in everyday transactions, as money.
    The dollar is a hot potato. There are trillions—nobody knows exactly how many—floating outside the U.S. But only Americans have to accept them, and only the U.S. Government can create them (although the North Koreans do their best). The Chinese have good reason to worry about all those dollars. When they tried to buy the Unocal oil company, they were turned away by the U.S. Government. So, obviously, their dollars weren’t good for that. When Dubai wanted to buy companies that manage six U.S. seaports, they found their dollars had no value.
    At some point there’s going to be a panic out of the dollar. When it happens, it’s likely to be the biggest financial upset since the 1930s. Part of the question is what they’ll panic into. The euro? As I have said many times, if the dollar is an “I owe you nothing,” the euro is a “Who owes you nothing?” I think the big beneficiary will be gold. The problem for the world’s economy is that just a trillion dollars—which is only about 1/6 of the dollars outside the U.S. alone—can buy a billion ounces of gold, even at $1,000 an ounce. But only about four billion ounces have ever been mined.
    It’s an explosive situation. The one thing you can count on when there’s a crisis is that the government will “do something,” which means controlling its subjects—not, God forbid, itself. And that something is likely to be foreign exchange controls. A small straw in the wind is the new regulation making it illegal to export more than $5 worth of pennies and nickels, because their metal is worth more than their face value—even though there’s no longer much copper in the pennies or nickel in the nickels.
    If an American doesn’t get significant assets outside the U.S. now, it may be impossible in the future. The best thing to do is buy real estate abroad, since it’s currently not reportable, like bank and brokerage accounts, and they can’t very well make you repatriate it. I expect, however, very few people will take my advice, even though they may agree with it. But everybody gets what he deserves, so it’s not a problem.
    Q. Looking at the broad picture, it seems like the U.S. government is facing nearly insurmountable odds. The cost of government has soared to something over 50% of GDP, weighing heavily on the private sector, yet there is no end in sight to the wide river of can’t-stop spending… on the military, on Social Security and Medicare—especially in the face of the baby boomers beginning to retire. How does the country manage to maintain that?
    A. Nothing lasts forever. I’ll be surprised if the U.S. is able to maintain its present geographic boundaries for this century. The Mexicans talk of the Reconquista; the gringos stole the Southwest from them in the 1800s, and they’re likely to take it back. What do you think the odds are that a young Latino male in California, 20 years from now, is going to pay 20% of his wages in Social Security and Medicare to support some old white broad in Massachusetts? Especially since he knows he’s never going to get an aluminum nickel back? Even today, polls show that more kids believe in aliens than believe they’ll see any Social Security money.
    We’ve had really good times for a whole generation. People become fat and sassy, or in the case of Americans, obese and arrogant, during good times. They don’t think of hanging their leaders from lamp posts until things get seriously bad.
    I don’t know how bad things will get. But when I’m asked, I’m prone to quip “Worse than even I think they’ll get.”
    Q. You and the team at Casey Research have been vocal about expecting a major inflation. Yet, other than occasional surprises, inflation doesn’t seem to be much of a problem. What gives?
    A. Things that you expect to happen usually take longer than you’d think. But once the process gets underway, they usually happen much more quickly. It’s like a boulder balanced on the edge of a cliff; nothing seems to happen until it happens all at once. Just adjust that analogy to the scale of a human lifespan.
    The word "inflation" covers two different concepts, and it's important to keep them separate. One concept is monetary inflation, which is an increase in the supply of money that outruns growth in the supply of goods and services. Papering over problems with yet more money is now the default solution for governments around the world. Case in point, when faced with the growing problems associated with the subprime mortgage sector, the European Central Bank announced that it would make “unlimited” funds available to the banking sector. The Fed will, predictably, react in the same way, running the printing presses overtime.
    The other concept is price inflation, which is an increase in the overall level of prices for goods and services.
    The relationship between the two is the relationship of cause and effect. Monetary inflation causes price inflation. But while almost everyone sees price inflation when it happens, few people notice the monetary inflation that is causing it. And so they tend to blame the producers of goods and services for higher prices—rather than the money-creating government that is the true culprit.
    We’re now experiencing a lot of monetary inflation, which eventually will be reflected in price inflation. What’s really going to tip this over the edge, however, is the rest of the world deciding to get out of dollars. A lot of those $6 trillion abroad are going to come back to the U.S., and real goods are going to be packed up and shipped abroad. Inflation will explode.
    It’s just a matter of time. But I think it’s going to happen this cycle.
    Q. How do you think the Chinese currently view the U.S.? Recently they threatened to use the “nuclear option”, dumping their U.S. dollar reserves in response to anti-Chinese legislation making its way through the U.S. Congress. Do you think there is any scenario under which they would let the dollar collapse, given that they own about one trillion of the things?
    A. It’s said the Chinese need us to provide a market for their goods. Which is absurd. Markets are about trade. You send me a load of VCRs; I send you a new Cadillac. Right now the Chinese are getting nothing in return for their VCRs but IOUs. If those IOUs aren’t redeemed—and at this point there are so many I’m not sure how they could be—they might as well send their goods to the North Koreans in return for IOUs. Or dump them into the ocean, if the only idea is to keep the factories humming and people employed. At some point the Chinese will want payment in something other than dollars.
    In the meantime the yuan will go higher. It’s a good thing for them. It will lower the cost of importing capital goods, technology and raw materials. It will force their manufacturers to be even more efficient. It will make buying foreign companies cheaper. It will raise the standard of living of the average Chinese, defusing some political problems. A strong currency is a good thing. Too bad the U.S. will be on the opposite side of that trade. It was a pathetic embarrassment to see Bernanke and that other buffoon from Treasury lecturing the Chinese on how to manage their currency.
    Q. You are on record as leaning toward an inflationary meltdown versus a recessionary one. But what about all the debt? Won’t people paying down their loans and refusing to go further into debt—because for one thing, pretty much everyone who ever wanted a house now has one—result in less spending? And less money chasing more goods would seem to suggest a recession.
    A. The first point is not to confuse terms. In today’s vernacular, a recession can be defined as a very mild or short depression. A depression can be given any of three definitions. One, most broadly, is a period when most people’s standard of living drops significantly. Two, it’s a period when the business cycle climaxes. And, three, it’s a period when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated. There’s much more to be said on all of these, but now’s not the time.
    Inflation, on the other hand, is a monetary phenomenon. You can have either an inflationary depression, like Germany in the ‘20s, or a deflationary one, like the U.S. in the ‘30s. The opposite of depression isn’t inflation; it’s prosperity. And you certainly don’t need inflation to create prosperity. Inflation is a drag on prosperity; it’s a tax on cash, because the government gets to spend the new money it creates while your old money depreciates.
    What do I think is likely? Certainly a depression, probably of the inflationary type. But if there are widespread defaults in the mortgage market because of a housing bust, hundreds of billions of dollars worth of buying would disappear, which is deflationary. You could have both things happening at once, in different parts of the economy.
    Q. Last year you went on record early calling for gold to top $700, which it did. But you expected it to end the year at about $750. Currently, it trades at around $665. Why do you think it didn’t hold up? And, just for entertainment purposes, how high do you think it will trade in 2007?
    A. I’m sure the government, directly and indirectly, did everything it could to keep the price down. The last thing they want to see is a gold panic. So the short run is hard to predict. But we’re still relatively early, certainly in terms of price, in what will be a bull market for the record books. It’s as if you can see the perfect storm brewing. Since I’ve been involved in the markets, there have been a number of times when things could have come unglued—‘70-‘71, with the stock market crash and the devaluation of the dollar, ‘73-‘74, with another market meltdown and financial crisis, ‘80-‘82, when commodities and interest rates both went through the roof, ‘87, ‘92, ‘98, the tech meltdown… Throughout that time, I’ve always tended to be a bear. In other words, I’ve tended to make my money during the crises; it’s relatively easy to make money during good times. As the tech boom proved, any idiot who knows nothing about the markets or the economy, can do it.
    My guess is that the next crisis is going to be breathtaking. And it’s not going to be just financial, but economic, social, military and political. Of course, I hope I’m wrong. If I’m wrong, I’m not likely to get hurt, for a number of reasons. But I don’t want to be inconvenienced if I’m right.
    So where is gold going? I notice that it is starting to move counter to the equity markets in this current crisis, as it should given the inflationary implications of the massive government bail outs and the increased likelihood that the Fed will be forced to rates, making the dollar a less attractive holding for foreigners. I hate making predictions, but if things continue down this path, I think we could see gold going over $1,000 within the next 12 months, and maybe even before year-end. And then the mania starts for the mining stocks.


  9. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

  10. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    <big class="pr">AP</big>
    Stocks Higher After Banks Add Liquidity
    Monday August 13, 11:38 am ET
    By Lauren Villagran, AP Business Writer <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="4"><tbody><tr><td height="4">
    </td></tr></tbody></table>Stocks Move Higher After Banks Add Liquidity, Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rebounded Monday after the Federal Reserve and other central banks added more cash to their banking systems, helping investors set aside some concerns about credit tightness.The New York Fed, which carries out the central bank's market operation, minutes after the opening bell announced $2 billion in overnight repurchase agreements.
    The Fed's "repo" follows a move by the Bank of Japan to put $5 billion into the markets and an addition by the European Central Bank of $65.3 billion; the ECB added more than $200 billion last week. The moves, following similar injections by the Fed last week, appeared to placate Wall Street for now and allowed it to look ahead to a week of fresh economic data. Since Thursday, the Fed has added $62 billion in liquidity.
    So far, the central bank moves seem to be calming a market that has been torn by volatility for weeks.
    "The environment we're in is really truly extraordinary. The best way for investors to view this is from a 30,000-foot view -- to be positioned defensively and to continue to pay close attention to the U.S. economy and the consumer," said J. Michael Barron, chief executive of Knott Capital in Exton, Pa.
    In late morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 60.40, or 0.46 percent, to 13,299.94.
    Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 9.28, or 0.64 percent, to 1,462.92, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 15.94, or 0.63 percent, to 2,560.83.
    After enduring sharp swings to the downside last week, the Dow Jones industrials and other major indexes ultimately finished the week with a modest gain. Last week's trading showed that the most predictable thing about the markets lately is high volatility.
    Investors were in a better humor Monday, despite the great deal of uncertainty in the market over the extent of problems in the subprime mortgage sector. Defaults among subprime mortgage holders -- borrowers with weak credit -- began the chain of events that led to the turmoil on Wall Street and other stock markets in recent weeks.
    Those defaults recently led to the collapse of two Bear Stearns funds with risky mortgage-backed investments and last week prompted French bank BNP Paribas to freeze three funds with exposure to the U.S. subprime mortgage market.
    Barron contends that investors should look past the Fed's liquidity injections and to the housing market problems that underlie many investors' concerns about the availability of credit. He sees the fallout from an overheated housing market and an overextended consumer as just beginning to emerge.
    "Even if the Fed does cut rates what stimulative effect does that have on the economy? The Fed can make money available but banks still have to lend it," Barron said.
    He said banks likely will still be hesitant to make loans easily available only a few months ago.
    Last Tuesday, the Fed left short-term interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent as it has for more than a year and reiterated that its primary concern remains inflation.
    Investors appeared pleased with the Commerce Department's report that retail sales edged up 0.3 percent in July, slightly ahead of market expectations. Wall Street has been closely monitoring consumer spending, as it accounts for two-thirds of the nation's total economic activity.
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Monday its funds using quantitative strategies, or computer modeling, "are currently under pressure" after global markets sold off on worries about debt and credit. The investment bank said it and certain large investors including Maurice "Hank" Greenberg and Eli Broad have committed to a $3 billion equity investment in its Global Equity Opportunities fund, which has "suffered significantly." The fund had a net asset value of about $3.6 billion before the equity investment. Goldman rose $1.12 to $181.62.
    Before announcing its latest liquidity injection, the Fed said Monday it stood ready to supply more liquidity to the market. The federal funds rate traded at the central bank's target 5.25 percent; last week, a fed funds rate of about 6 percent triggered cash injections last week.
    Bond were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remained flat at 4.80 percent from late Friday.
    On Monday, struggling subprime lender Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. said it has sued Lone Star Fund V LP and two affiliates to get the private equity firm to follow through with an agreed takeover. Lone Star said Friday in a regulatory filing that Accredited no longer met the conditions of its $400 million acquisition offer. Without a deal, Accredited has cautioned that it may face bankruptcy. The company fell $3.01, or 33.9 percent, to $5.89.
    In its first quarterly report as a public company, private equity firm Blackstone Group LP posted second-quarter revenue of $975.3 billion, below analysts' consensus of $1.06 billion. The company's much-anticipated initial public offering in June raised about $4 billion, but the stock has fallen short of expectations. On Monday, however, Blackstone rose $1.36, or 5.4 percent, to $26.64.
    Overseas Monday, Japan's Nikkei stock average gained 0.21 percent. European stocks showed sharp gains after a sell-off Friday. Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 2.85 percent, Germany's DAX index added 1.52 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.77 percent.
    The dollar was mixed against other major world currencies. Gold futures fluctuated, while oil futures rose. Light, sweet crude rose $1.42 to $72.92 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
    Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 641.1 million shares.
    The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 2.74, or 0.35 percent, to 791.52.
    New York Stock Exchange:
    Nasdaq Stock Market:
  11. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    You don't even to click on these links, just read the headlines.
    The horse is exhausted and will need a rest soon but the Central Banks keep on whipping.

    European Central Bank offers cash to the euro-region money markets for a third day

    Bankers Report Interbank Lending Shut For Two Hours Over German Bank Crisis

    Barron's Online:

    Why the Blowup May Get Worse

    The Bill Lands on Wall Street's Desk

    Financial Times:

    Bank of Japan injects Y600bn into market

    Goldman leads $3bn quant fund rescue

    Chinese inflation hits 10-year high

    Central Banks Pouring Money into Markets

    <table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Move along. Nothing to see here. Go to Disneyland. Buy junk from Wal Mart. Stay asleep.

    The Federal Reserve will print money to keep your reckless, crap shoot, dog shit investments afloat. (For now.) This is the “free market” after all. </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
    Magic 8 Ball Gambling Antics Going Off the Rails

    Structured Investment Vehicles’ Role in Crisis

    The System, Like the Berlin Wall, Must Come Down

    LATOC main site:

    <table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Folks,

    It looks like we may be about to go off the cliff. Who knows, maybe the "powers-that-be" will manage to hold things together for a while longer and maybe there won't be any unexpected catastrophes. However, between the markets going haywire, Mexico on the verge of imploding, Cheney itiching to attack
    Iran, China threatening to pull the plug on the dollar, Putin preparing for a nuclear confrontation, the federal government running massive nuclear war preparations, the Pentagon analyzing how billions of people will react to food shortages, and countless tipping points all being hit at about the same time, I sort of doubt "business as usual" (BAU) will continue for much longer. So whatever you can do to prepare that you haven't already done, now is the time to do it as the window of normalcy appears to be closing.

    Heck, Karl Rove just freakin' resigned. That alone should tell all us something really bad must be comin' this way.

    Food, supplies, ammunition, etc. will likely never be cheaper or more readily available then they are at this time. So now is the time to procure whatever you can as we plunge head first into this cluster****.

    If you're not able to prepare or maneuver you and yours for reasons related to family, finances, personal health, etc, well then just prepare yourself psychologically however you can.

    I suppose I'm obligated to tell you that "you should get to know your neighbors." In some cases, that's a smart move and hopefully one you made a long time ago. Realistically speaking, however, most of your neighbors have probably been turned into Prozac-popping zombie fatasses so I can't say I'm optimistic that getting to know them is going to do much good. If they're like most of the North American population, you can pry the remote control and bag of cheez-doodles from their cold dead hands. "Credit-crunch", "energy-crisis" and "climate-change" all be damned, as long as they can flip on the 42-inch plasma television they could give a shit if the country (and the world) is on the express train straight to hell.

    Best of luck,

    -Matt</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

    More from LATOC:

    Fortune Magazine: "The world almost ended last night"

    NY Times: Contagion is Spreading Wide and Far

    We're on the Verge of a Meltdown

    Central Banks Pour In Billions but Panic Continues

    Markets Go Red as Contagion Spreads

    Cyclone's Real Deal: RED ALERT

    Kunstler: "the US now stands on the brink of an unprecedented liquidation of assets"

    Has there ever been a financial collapse with louder warning signals?

    The Grim Reaper Pays a Visit to Wall Street

    The System is Coming Down

    What We can Learn About Today's Market from the Panic of 1907

    For American Who Lived Beyond Their Means, The Day for Reckoning has Arrived

    UK Independent: The Boom Generation Wakes up to Reality

    Forbes: Goldman Sachs Alpha to Fail?

    Telegraph UK:

    Hedge fund panic was behind global stock markets collapse

    LSE website crashes as volumes soar

    Stock Market Brushfire; Will there be a run on the banks?

    Homesteading Today: Possibility of Financial Disaster?

    Interesting time for this to happen... middle of the summer, everyone on vacation. Sooner than many had expected. Is this the real deal, or just another hiccup? Will the collapse proceed quickly now, or be drawn out over several more years? Will there be a rush on the banks and a shortage of PMs, cash, food, ammo and solar panels?

    Are TPTB pulling the plug? Is the Amero closer than we think? The panic seems to be multiplying by the hour.


    CIBC to take $290M hit in U.S. subprime mess

    <table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce says it has about $1.7 billion US at risk in bets on the troubled U.S. mortgage market — as much as $1 billion of it relating to subprime, or junk, mortgages. </td> </tr> </tbody></table>

  12. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    All this and a freakin hurricane too [booze]

    Unfortunately.... very unfortunately.... its too late for most folks to try to undo, redo, make do or get out... this die is cast for many... and when they all head for the door.... its gonna be ugly....

    When will it happen?.... sooner? later? its already happening? never?....

    People have too much "invested" in the "party" to let it end... but we are trying so hard to "keep this patient" alive.... I fear the worst ... and that would be a sudden fall.... rather than a "slow burn"....

    Sheesh... I'm glad I don't drink[LMAO]
  13. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member



    • <script type="text/javascript">// <![CDATA[ if(typeof window.close != "undefined") {document.write( '
    • Close' ) }// ]]<</script>
    • Close
    <script type="text/javascript">// <![CDATA[ if(typeof subs!="undefined" && subs=="Y") {document.write('Subscription page

    ');}// ]]></script>

    <script type="text/javascript"> var prnt = new Advert(AD_PRNT);prnt.setRenderImmediately(true);prnt.init();</script><script src=",GN,GN06,ON24,GN11&ftfund=undefined&13=USA&14=USA&17=USA&18=&transId=1187096289845&ind=undefined&wrap=null&rsi=,,&asset=story&referrer="></script> <noscript>[​IMG]</noscript>
    <script type="text/javascript">// <![CDATA[ if(typeof window.print != "undefined") {document.write('[​IMG]') }// ]]></script>[​IMG]
    Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned

    By Jeremy Grant in Washington
    Published: August 14 2007 00:06 | Last updated: August 14 2007 00:06

    The US government is on a ‘burning platform’ of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon, the country’s top government inspector has warned.
    David Walker, comptroller general of the US, issued the unusually downbeat assessment of his country’s future in a report that lays out what he called “chilling long-term simulations”.
    These include “dramatic” tax rises, slashed government services and the large-scale dumping by foreign governments of holdings of US debt.
    Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, Mr Walker warned there were “striking similarities” between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including “declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government”.
    “Sound familiar?” Mr Walker said. “In my view, it’s time to learn from history and take steps to ensure the American Republic is the first to stand the test of time.”
    Mr Walker’s views carry weight because he is a non-partisan figure in charge of the Government Accountability Office, often described as the investigative arm of the US Congress.
    While most of its studies are commissioned by legislators, about 10 per cent – such as the one containing his latest warnings – are initiated by the comptroller general himself.
    In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Walker said he had mentioned some of the issues before but now wanted to “turn up the volume”. Some of them were too sensitive for others in government to “have their name associated with”.
    “I’m trying to sound an alarm and issue a wake-up call,” he said. “As comptroller general I’ve got an ability to look longer-range and take on issues that others may be hesitant, and in many cases may not be in a position, to take on.
    “One of the concerns is obviously we are a great country but we face major sustainability challenges that we are not taking seriously enough,” said Mr Walker, who was appointed during the Clinton administration to the post, which carries a 15-year term.
    The fiscal imbalance meant the US was “on a path toward an explosion of debt”.
    “With the looming retirement of baby boomers, spiralling healthcare costs, plummeting savings rates and increasing reliance on foreign lenders, we face unprecedented fiscal risks,” said Mr Walker, a former senior executive at PwC auditing firm.
    Current US policy on education, energy, the environment, immigration and Iraq also was on an “unsustainable path”.
    “Our very prosperity is placing greater demands on our physical infrastructure. Billions of dollars will be needed to modernise everything from highways and airports to water and sewage systems. The recent bridge collapse in Minneapolis was a sobering wake-up call.”
    Mr Walker said he would offer to brief the would-be presidential candidates next spring.
    “They need to make fiscal responsibility and inter-generational equity one of their top priorities. If they do, I think we have a chance to turn this around but if they don’t, I think the risk of a serious crisis rises considerably”.
  14. BAT1

    BAT1 Cowboys know no fear

    Did you know when the BLM took over the national parks, they were dubbed as collateral for the mess we are in today. So, don't think you can run to the hills to get away. Wait until China wants to foreclose on Yellowstone with troops. All the crooks are jumping ship, Bush has land in Paraquay, Cheney in Dubai, [ no extradition] and Rove just jumped ship. They have looted this country and not paid the bills! They know that when the dumb masses of this nation find out they better be gone. Talk about cut and run! When it hits and everything is foreclosed on, It think I know what the 1400 detention camps Halliburton is building is designed for. China and Russia deals in human slaves. :shock:[own2]
  15. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Was talking to a Banker friend today and asking his take on all of the current hoopla... What to do how to play, etc etc...

    He told me that we "Are so Screwed".
    He just left town on an impromptu vacation.
  16. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Nikkei took a hit and European markets are starting off their sessions down... all the talking heads are predicting a tough session....

    Well... 300+Billion from the central banks certainly didn't last long.... ouch!
  17. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    Ben....Ben...pump in some more liquidity and tell us to buy buy buy in the stock market.
  18. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    <!-- headline start --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="2">[​IMG]</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">[​IMG]</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold;" valign="top" width="99%">Federal Reserve poised to pump more money into markets</td> <td rowspan="3" align="right" valign="top">[​IMG]</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">[​IMG]</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="99%">Aug 15 09:13 AM US/Eastern
    </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">[​IMG]</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- date/author end --><!-- article start --> The US Federal Reserve said Wednesday it may pump more money into the jittery financial system when the stock markets open for trading to meet increased liquidity demands. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that market conditions suggest that an injection will be needed in the federal funds market "to accommodate heightened reserve needs."
    The operation would be conducted at the bank's desk opening at 9:30 am (1330 GMT), it said in a statement. The Wall Street markets open at that time.
    The New York Fed, which is responsible for such operations for the central bank, said it "stands ready to conduct further operations later in the day if needed."
    The Fed pumped a total 64 billion dollars into the financial markets in operations on Thursday, Friday and Monday to soothe investors' fears over a credit crunch tied to the troubled US housing sector.
  19. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    Thanks, Ben, you read my mind. b::b::
  20. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    "Uncle Benny" is worried about the news that Merrill's analysts are thinking that CountryWide may have to declare bankruptcy.... that "little" tidbit would certainly have added to the "panic" of investors without some kind of offsetting news... CountryWide has @200 billion in "assets" last time I checked....
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