I'll Sell When Gold Hits $1750

Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by TXKajun, Apr 17, 2020.


  1. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Did you sell?
     
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  2. TXKajun

    TXKajun Monkey+++

    Maybe an ounce or 3 and some silver. There's a dealer in town that pays spot, a little more than spot for the good stuff. And next sale point is gonna be $2500.
     
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  3. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    An all time high isn't a bad place to sell some.
    If silver hits all time highs I hope to have sold hundres of ounces at dealer prices.
     
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  4. DKR

    DKR Raconteur of the first stripe

    Uuummm - be careful who you sell to Or buy from). Reports go the FedGov so they can collect Capital Gains Tax (38%) on the rise in your PM.... Sadly, it is far more difficult to take a tax loss on PM with selling...
     
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  5. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Another obama error winning policy.
     
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  6. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

    Buy with no SIR name or SIN =Gov # bs and address .
    Sell the same way , , I have machines to check the metal im dealing with , 4 types ..
    I found a bad bar 2 years ago from a bank dealer ,, before I left , sales person wanted to rush , I said , fine , i'll buy from a real dealer who asses metal for you, cost a bit more , but you can check from the serial # who did the checking.
    Now a days , Metal is in short form. Im just getting trickles in from the beginning of this year.
    Don't over extend buying , swap a carton of cigs/ case of wobble pop into a few pieces of silver /AG..
    Sloth
     
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  7. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

  8. Tully Mars

    Tully Mars Metal weldin' monkey

    I ain't selling $#!t-why trade gold for paper??

    I understand the allure of selling when the price is high. But gold, Silver, diamonds and other PM's are not stocks. They are called PM's for a reason. As someone who is storing them against/for a SHTF event why on earth would you sell them for the very thing(FRN's) that you are hedging against? That's foolish IMHO. If you "need" paper money right now to survive you shouldn't be investing in PM's. You are not at that point in your preps. We all work for money, I understand that. What I'm saying is that if $1750 is such a strong urge to sell then you should be spending your income on other more basic preps before PM's. Junk silver is something that most can figure into their budgets and a better play than gold if there are more pressing needs. It may well turn out to be an easier barter good than gold for many folks.
    To me, gold is like playing poker-the ones that are willing to go all in buy gold. They are playing the long game not a quick hit and run. If you can't/won't do that then perhaps gold isn't for you at this time in your prepper life.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
  9. TXKajun

    TXKajun Monkey+++

    Silver? What kind of idiot would have bought silver years ago when it was all the way up to $7.50 an oz???? (J/K).
     
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  10. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Eventually you are going to sell it unless you live in Alaska there it appears people are smart enough to use it as a means of Commerce.

    So if gold goes up to $3,000 and you don't sell any or trade it, then it goes down to $1,300 when you do trade, it doesn't matter.
    You can tell everyone how you had gold when it was $3,000 an ounce and sat on it. So you get a cool story, that isn't cool.

    The problem with gold staying at an all time high is last time that happened the gold supply doubled. So there's significant pressure not to stay that high.
     
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  11. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    Since gold is real money, and fiat is not......and gold "price" is a reflection of the value of fiat.....what would make fiat go up nearly 3 times in value to force gold down to 1300.......given they are printing it by the rail car load ?

    World Gold Council estimates a bit over 6 billion ounces of gold has been mined in all of human history. Assume most of it is still around in the form of bullion/jewelry/etc. World population is close to 8 billion. That means there is less than one ounce per person for each individual on the planet. (and I've got way more than my 'share' :D)

    You don't specific a date for "last time" when you say gold supply doubled, but from what I find, that isn't true at least back 20 years. The amount of new gold discovered (proven reserves in the ground) has gone down significantly since 2006. No large deposits are being discovered anymore.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Paper doesn't go up 3 times in value.
    Gold will go back down when more supply hits the market. Mines have been shut down due to china virus, but investors and jewelry demand had been dramatically lower than normal too. So not a whole lot was happening with the price until recently.
    Right now there's 3 unsustainable things driving the price up.
    1 Election year. Election years drive the gold price high or low.
    2 Mines are closed the gold supply is artificially being held low.
    3 Because supply is low, prices surge and people are panic buying, a lot of first time buyers.
    Once prices go high enough for long enough a central bank or banks some where will sell a chunk of their gold once they get an idea of how their added supply will effect the market.
    Old mines will reopen. When gold is at record highs everyone is a gold miner.
    4 Baby boomers are buying up gold and securities, further driving up the prices and rates.

    Eventually mines will open, banks will sell, sheepel will stop panic buying and turn right around and sell at a loss, baby boomers will stop buying.

    So 1 ends november 4th then 2 is done for sure some time next year don't really know when, after that 3 ends.
    The only one that continues for more than a year is 4. But eventually number 4 stops buying, it may take 5 years or more.

    The gold bulls focus only on how high it might go and how fast it could get there. They refuse to entertain the possibility that it will level off and eventually go lower.
     
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  13. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    I believe you're pretty much off the mark. Some additional supply may come to market, but as I pointed out above, the amount available TO mine is just going down.

    The #1 and #2 reasons gold is going higher is MASSIVE currency printing, and artificially low interest rates, enforced by the FED "buying" what ever amount of bonds are required to keep rates low. Neither of those is going to change in the future, in fact, will get worse as the govt is forced to support the unemployed population with more fiat, and the FED simply can't allow rates to ever rise again to what the true, open market would set them at for the amount of debt/risk involved in financing this folly....so gold will never come down again in any significant manner.

    Yes, there may be dips of as much as 100 bucks/oz, give or take....nothing ever goes straight up......but we're never going back to sub 1800-1900 buck gold, and I suspect silver will get dragged along for the ride and we likely will never see sub 20 buck silver again.

    We'll see in 3-5 years which of us is right. If I'm wrong, I've merely missed a timing opportunity to sell and buy more later....I'll still have the same number of ounces. If you're wrong, you'll never own PM's again without a huge cost increase.
     
  14. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    There was massive currency printing during the last manufactured crisis and the gold price eventually came back down. Gold lost nearly half it's value at one point after its all time high.
    And that's probably what will happen again.
    Yeah I heard "we were never going below $1,600, $1,700 gold again" 8 years ago. Then less than 3 years later it was below $1,200, it had lost more than 1/3 it's value then inched closer to 1/2 it's value.
    The main reason all the expert's agreed was because the fed was printing money like crazy and monetizing debt.

    I will be so quoting the shit out of this in 3 or 4 years when prices come back down.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
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  15. Tully Mars

    Tully Mars Metal weldin' monkey

    I believe you to be very close if not dead on the mark.
    I've never bought PM's with a plan to sell them for profit. First, I don't need the money, second, sooner or later this paper chase will catch it's tail and crash. One of the only true things of value will be PM's. That's when I'll use it and bartering. for the betterment of my family.
     
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  16. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    The 2008 financial mess was mainly a banking problem. The currency they created, for the most part, did not make it into circulation.....it balanced the phony books of the banks.

    This time, they have handed cash out to all kinds of businesses and people (thru direct checks....more to come....and unemployment....also more to come). Nothing at all like 2008. Take direct payments that went to MILLIONS of people....the $1200 ea. And TRULY EXCESS unemployment that went to millions more....like my wife.

    She had a little part time, self employed gig at the local senior center teaching dance. Made a little pocket money.....300-400 month...doing something she likes to do. She qualified for the 600/wk fed payment + 120/wk TN minimum unemployment (paid by the feds, no self employed in TN...and most states....ever qualified for unemployment). 16 wks x 720/wk + the 2400 is right at $14,000 that flowed into our household versus the 1200-1600 normal. (and all of it + some went into gold)

    Now multiply that times untold millions of people.


    But yeah.....Feel free to quote me if I'm wrong.....because I plan to do the same to you if you're wrong. :D
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
  17. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

    @Tully Mars @TnAndy
    I agree with all your previous posts , Plus our canuk Drama Queen sent us cheques for ?? Asian flu problems , went straight into PM's ..Now on this warm up test on the shut down , I could see where i was weak , I made changes , to rectify my weak areas and change that to be more stable. I have been dumping FIAT from accounts and exchanging that for goods I use . Rather than having a huge bank balance , I replaced the old birds with a few new No-Tars and they were the cheapest i've seen for a long time .. Just like cars , they are overstocked with birds. Boeing has new dreamliners stored in AZ for orders cancelled. I still drive a 40 YO Vee , replacements are 30yo ones in storage .All paid for , never lease / borrow when a great tax break or i lease it to my company / pilot buddy company..
    Sloth
     
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  18. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

     
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  19. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    People can say that after the price went down.

    Let's see what happens when the gold supply isn't artificially low, there's no longer a major election looming and people aren't panic buying.
     
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  20. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    To compare pricing:

    ITM Trading (video above) 3-9 gold eagles $2205ea

    Colorado Gold/Silver (dealer I use) 4 gold eagles (min sale) $2167 (plus $25 fee to entire purchase of less than 7 ounces)
     
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