Intrinsic value post SHTF

Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by g stacker, Oct 31, 2014.


  1. g stacker

    g stacker Monkey

    There's enough articles out there that speak to topic of the intrinsic value of PM's. What I can't seem to find is an assessment of the long lasting affect a "SHTF scenario" itself would have on that value.

    For those that also stack as a hedge against inflation (and presumably, hyperinflation) what are your thoughts?
     
  2. tacmotusn

    tacmotusn Mosquito Sailor

    I prefer silver over gold, but then I have fewer disposable dollars than many PM buyers. I also like Silver Eagles and 90% Silver both for the same reason. They are legal tender with an assigned dollar value. I hold them both for their long term stable value. Silver, Gold, and precious gems have been used for barter and jewelry for thousands of years. Paper, fiat money ALWAYS loses value, often to the point of Zero. The US dollar and every other fiat currency in the world is on shaky ground and has been for too long. A real collapse is overdue. Economic collapse is only one possible major SHTF scenario. It is one of many I prepare for. I hope I never see a need to exhaust my prep's stash of supplies.
    .
    Value of any barter item after a collapse will vary by supply and demand. Fiat paper will only be good to wipe your butt with.
     
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  3. BTPost

    BTPost Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    Get out your "Crystal Ball" because that will be as good as anything else, in answering that Question... There is no Real, Answer, and anyone who tells you different is full of [BSf]
     
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  4. Seacowboys

    Seacowboys Senior Member Founding Member

    Well, being full of [BSf]is my favorite trait! I once bought the entire supply of 1/2" bolts, nuts, and washers on Grand Bahama Island, going to every hardware store on the island and asking for their entire stock and when asked why, said I was going to become the island bolt magnate and if anyone on that island had a half-inch hole they needed to fill with a bolt, would have to negotiate with me.. Didn't want to explain the real need was a piece of equipment that was "Some assembly required" that was needed for a modification.
     
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  5. g stacker

    g stacker Monkey

    Some theorists say that the NGM will institute a new dollar worth a fraction of the USD (the Patriot Dollar?) ostensibly to hack into the crushing debt load. But a stock market crash? Natural disaster? Viral contagion? Terrorist attack? Civil unrest on a mass scale? There are too many threats to be able to make predictions with any real authority (the crystal ball analogy is spot on) but perhaps metrics can be applied to statistical eventualities, if nothing else.

    Specifically, our fiat is doomed. That is a mathematical certainty. No fiat in history has ever avoided that fate. And the NGM are hastening its finality.

    Unfortunately most Americans will be ill-prepared when the fiat SHTF. But even they will emerge (albeit, battered and bruised). What's also certain is that a new currency will be born. Hopefully, ours will once again be based on metal, but I doubt it.

    I'm done stacking 90% (most would agree I'm well situated there). And as far as bullion (Au or Ag) is concerned.. well, who can ever have enough?

    No, I'm attempting to gain deeper insight into the value of PMs after the recovery phase, when a fully functioning society returns.

    Many commodities are priced in USD's. At no time in history has a single fiat been so globally intertwined globally. As such, the failure of this fiat called the USD has the potential to be the worst in human history.

    So, what will happen to the value of our favorite commodity when a localized event has global ramifications? Will the intrinsic value rise or fall? Seems to me that a case can be made both ways.

    Yes, but the silver price would have to drop to the equivalent of $1.40 oz before using junk at face value would even be thinkable. But I suppose if my stack had lost that much "value" I might need to!

    A common benchmark is that historically an ounce of gold will buy you a nice suit. Considering the impact of USD's demise on economies worldwide what will it buy in the "new normal" marketplace?
     
  6. tacmotusn

    tacmotusn Mosquito Sailor

    My point on legal tender US silver with a dollar value assigned is that it as apposed to bullion is that is not taxed at time of sale and cannot easily be traced to the point of confiscation. I do not intend to let any I may or may not have go for face value. I will throw what I have left in the ocean before I would surrender it to those carpetbagging lying greedy incompetent SOBs in Washington DC. In fact since I look so much like Santa Friggin Claus I have been giving my 90% away in change just to make people smile. No loss or profit claimed in any of it. Just spent as US tender. Prove differently.
     
  7. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey

    The only metal they are going to confiscate from me is lead.
     
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  8. g stacker

    g stacker Monkey

    @tacmotusn: Wise. And generous. And you bring up another point I often hear..that being, confiscation. Can you imagine that after stacking for all these years, we come to find that pms are outlawed just when we need them most?
     
  9. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey

    They outlawed drugs, how did that work out? Even without a breakdown they won't be able to control an underground economy, with a breakdown they won't be able to control anything.
     
  10. kellory

    kellory An unemployed Jester, is nobody's fool. Banned

    I disagree. They would clamp down on everything they could, just to try to prove they were in charge.
     
    AmericanRedoubt1776 likes this.
  11. g stacker

    g stacker Monkey

    No offense but I don't see the analogy. The price of recreational drugs is not determined by supply and demand, rather it is artificially inflated because of prohibition. And as for the market, it's driven mostly by addiction, which is why outlawing them has had no appreciable impact.

    The topic I'm speaking of is life after recovery, in a new normal. If PM's were outlawed, and a new currency was in place, how could that not severely impact demand and therefore drive down the price?

    Seems to me that offshore storage would be the only safe bet.
     
  12. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey

    If things break down here I don't see any place that will be safe to store your wealth. I think it needs to be something real and in your possession.

    I brought up drugs to demonstrate that the authorities can't control something just by declaring it illegal. If I have silver and they don't know about it I don't fear confiscation. If/when it gets used it will be during emergencies where they won't have control of anything. PM's have been real money for the history of civilized man. They aren't going away. There are a few alternatives like things that are always needed and have an unlimited shelf life. A 25 lb bag of salt (the basis for the word salary) is peanuts right now, but a month or two into WROL and it could be gold.
     
  13. tacmotusn

    tacmotusn Mosquito Sailor

    .
    Seems to me you are getting the carriage ahead of the horse. Most of us here are not too concerned with life after recovery. I'll get back to that. Recovery is not going to happen overnight, or in 3 days, or probably 3 months. It is not going to be painless. Our population will shrink. The government as we now know it will collapse. Survival is what most of us are concerned with. I suppose if I were Big Daddy Warbucks, sitting on a ton of wealth, I would consider offshore storage of PM wealth, or at least some of it. Those of us anchored to the earth, probably won't move far from our bugout location. Some of us will have various somewhat remote storage caches here and there, but within our capabilities to get to, not offshore or overseas. For me these caches would have to be within a reasonable walking or horseback distance. YMMV just sayin'
    .
    None of us has a clue what the new normal will be, or how long a recovery will take. I would love to leave a legacy within my family / tribe of a vast amount of PM for future generations after the recovery, but for me and many that just is not possible.
     
  14. vonslob

    vonslob Monkey++

    I really dont care what pm's value is going to be in a post-SHTF world, i am going to be more concerned about my family and tribe. I purchase pm's for when the economy goes funny. I was out of work from sept 2008 to sept 2010 (working off and on). Precious metals kept my butt out of the fire, that is why i bought them. I did not to cash in retirement or anything that would have me to pay taxes. My dad got me into pm's back '92 or '93. I was starting to make good money and he wanted me to start to save. I would go to the coin store every week and pick up whatever 20.00-40.00 dollars would buy. Precious metals for me are a hedge against bad economic times and mean very little as far was a post-SHTF world. jmho
     
  15. Mindgrinder

    Mindgrinder Karma Pirate Ninja Jedi Bipolar WINNING M.L.F.

    Sure can buy a lot of seeds for a silver maple....even at (checking spot silver) OMG down to $15.oo OZ...
    Buy buy buy....

    Still....580 serious kale seeds would be a better hedge if you already got a stack of silver...

    Winterbor Kale Seeds for Organic Growing How to Grow Kale - West Coast Seeds
    Winterbor (Sorry, this size is sold out)

    :( seems I aint the only 1 who thought so.
     
  16. Mindgrinder

    Mindgrinder Karma Pirate Ninja Jedi Bipolar WINNING M.L.F.

    You could have 2 oz of silver or 5000-10,000 carrots....
    How long could you live off 10k carrots?
    How long could you live off 2 oz silver?
    This is the question....

    Bolero Carrot Seeds for Organic Growing - West Coast Seeds
    ............................WGT Seeds $CDN
    Bolero (Available) 25 g 14175 24.99

    Edit - i've grown these with pellets at 1 of my fishing holes this year...
    More carrots than fish.
    :( and :) same time.
     
  17. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey

    You do have to prioritize and not put all your eggs in one basket. Seeds and non perishables are part of the strategy. So are PMs, bullets, etc.

    There will be situations where you will need something you don't have, and they just might not be interested in carrot seeds.
     
  18. Gator 45/70

    Gator 45/70 Monkey+++

    Be the outlaw that you and I are....
    The gobberment fears people that think on their own...
    I like that!
     
  19. CATO

    CATO Monkey+++

    I share @Mindgrinder 's point of view on the utility of stocking up on seeds as "wealth" and think in these terms:

    There are some things that are super-cheap right now, that will be worth their weight in gold come SHTF. That's what I'm stocking up on. Then, I can trade for things I need. While I do have PMs, I'm not so sure I'm going to be able to go to the "market" after SHTF with my sack of junk dimes and buy whatever I need like in a Rawles' fiction book. But, I will be able to trade stuff . . . I spent too many summers around a flea market as a kid.

    Here's someone else who is a step ahead . . . good ideas. I hadn't thought about bike tires/patches, but, I'm gonna gets some now, in addition to chains and brake pads. And, if you're going to stock seeds to sell people, what are all the other stuff that goes along with it.

    I have a garbage can full of leather work gloves--all different sizes. Lots of work post-SHTF.

    When the SHTF, These Cheap Items Will be Worth Their Weight in Gold | Ready Nutrition

    When the SHTF, These Cheap Items Will be Worth Their Weight in Gold
    Joshua Krause
    Ready Nutrition
    Comments (2)
    [​IMG]

    If society were to break down tomorrow, the value of the things we own and the skills we have would be turned on its head. Everybody knows that certain items will be far more valuable after a grid ending event. Stuff like gold, guns, and food are a given in any conversation on preparedness. Skills like hunting, reloading, and first aid would be indispensable, while skills accounting and day trading would be completely worthless.

    There are of course, other items that we may be overlooking. While things like gold and guns will be expensive in the future, they’re already quite expensive now. Once you have those bases covered on your preparedness checklist, you can start thinking in terms of “What’s really cheap now, but will definitely be more valuable when the SHTF? What’s going to give me the greatest return on my money?”

    With that said, here’s a few barter items you can buy right now, for a fraction of what they’ll be worth when the grid goes down.

    Bike Tire Patches[​IMG]
    If say, there was an EMP type of event to hit America, it would take several years for the grid to be repaired. If it’s a worldwide event it will probably take even longer. Either way, the need for transportation would not go away. However, I don’t see horses making a comeback anytime soon. Even if it takes a decade for the lights to come back on, I don’t think you could breed them fast enough to accommodate the survivors. What would be far more abundant, is bicycles.

    Even without maintenance, the current stock of bicycles in circulation would last a long time. The only exception to this would be the inner tube, which is prone to punctures and leakage. So having a fully stocked repair kit would be a good idea. You can keep spare inner tubes for your own bicycles, or maybe even buy a couple more to trade with (most common sizes are 27, 28, and 29 inches). Fortunately, repair kits and inner tubes are both small, and very cheap.

    Vitamin C[​IMG]
    In a society where the medical infrastructure has collapsed, and doctors are hard to come by, vitamin C will become one of the most important nutrients. It will also become one of the hardest to find. As far as food goes, the most obvious source is from fruit.

    Consider this though; how much of the fruit in your grocery store comes from hundreds or thousands of miles away? If it comes from the other side of the country, you have to consider what kinds of fruit you can grow in your region. So now let’s say you decide you want to grow your own. You better start now because most fruit comes from trees and bushes that may not produce right away.

    As for stocking up on fruit, every method of preservation has been shown to reduce the vitamin C content, and cooking can destroy roughly 50 percent of the vitamin C in fruit. So in all likelihood, what we’re left with is a severe vitamin C gap during any long term disaster. The only way to stock up on it is with supplements. Personally I would recommend ascorbyl palmitate if you’re looking for something a little more potent. Keep them in a cool, dry, and dark place, and in an unopened container. That should keep them viable for a very long time. The bottle I bought a few months ago has a 4 year shelf life.

    If our Western society crumbles, we’ll become prone to far more illnesses than we are now, and there will be no medical system to fall back on. For many people after the collapse, Vitamin C may become a matter of life and death.

    Power Inverter[​IMG]
    This one is the most expensive on this list, but it will still become extremely valuable after a collapse. I would argue more so than most electronic devices, because without this item you’ll never be able to charge any of those gadgets.

    A power inverter is designed to turn DC power into AC, which is what most electronic devices run off of. During any long term collapse, people will be turning to alternative sources of renewable power, like solar and wind. Almost all of these sources of energy produce DC, so it will be essential to find a way to turn that into AC electricity.

    DC/DC Converter[​IMG]
    Along the same lines as the power inverter, you might consider getting a DC to DC converter. This piece will adjust any given voltage, into a higher or lower voltage. I’m betting that this gadget will be far more overlooked than the power inverter, which is typically made to turn 12 volts DC into 120 volts AC.

    What most folks don’t consider however, is that the sources of energy that will be made after the collapse will be made from improvised parts, and will be highly irregular. Whereas you can buy a solar panel or generator right now that produces something close enough to 12 volts (which is pretty standard), the improvised parts of a post collapse generator aren’t likely to produce the more typical 12 volts that most power inverters are designed for.

    If you’re working with whatever scrap you can scrounge up to build a motor or generator, the kind of voltage you’ll be getting is going to be very unpredictable. So a DC to DC converter will go for a pretty penny after the collapse. Being able to adjust the voltage means it’s the only thing that will allow you to connect a homemade generator into a standard converter, and then turn that energy into the AC power to run your appliances.

    Polar Pure[​IMG]
    I believe this item will quite literally be worth its weight in gold during a collapse. Many of you might have heard of it, but for the uninitiated, Polar Pure contains highly concentrated crystallized iodine. It’s held inside a tiny bottle with instructions and a thermometer pasted on the side. I’ve been using the same bottle on backpacking trips for many years without it ever running out. That’s because one bottle of Polar Pure contains enough iodine to purify 500 gallons of water.

    If our infrastructure collapses, there will still be a lot of water in most places. It just won’t be safe to drink. And since you can’t go for very long without water, finding ways to purify it will become the top priority for most survivors. Just imagine for a moment, if you were in that situation. How much would you be prepared to trade away for a pocket sized bottle that can clean 500 gallons of water? I bet it’s a hell of a lot more than the 20 dollars it costs now. And if you find yourself bugging out this will probably become your most important item; even more so than a firearm. After all, even in the apocalypse you probably won’t be getting into gunfights every day, but you will be drinking water on a regular basis.

    For an even better price, you can buy the iodine crystals in bulk on quite serious.



    Joshua Krause was born and raised in the Bay Area. He is a writer and researcher focused on principles of self-sufficiency and liberty at Ready Nutrition. You can follow Joshua’s work at our Facebook page or on his personal Twitter.

    Joshua’s website is Strange Danger
     
  20. Mindgrinder

    Mindgrinder Karma Pirate Ninja Jedi Bipolar WINNING M.L.F.

    It's worth mentioning that I'm biased and a bit of a hypocrite....mainly because I started stacking silver as a "hobby" since my Grandfather got me into it at 10 years old from change at the corner store.
    :)
    I've had to dump some of my pure and Junk Silver on multiple occasions over my adult life to pay unexpected vet bills, family issues and once when I was between jobs for 3 months around Y2k when the US tech bubble popped.

    So going all the way back to the OP -

    Ya - maybe stack your PMs first to preserve "some" hedge for barter...maybe think like "How much silver would I need to buy 3 months worth of groceries at current spot prices?" and set that aside. Same with gold if u can afford it....but don't discount what @CATO and I are saying....

    A bag of seeds is cheap.....right now.
    Groceries are cheap....right now.
    "Handy" stuff is a "luxury".....right now.

    I still gotta get me some of these toys....xmas...

    BioLite KettleCharge - Mountain Equipment Co-op. Free Shipping Available

    BioLite BaseCamp Grill - Mountain Equipment Co-op. Free Shipping Available

    BioLite CampStove - Mountain Equipment Co-op. Free Shipping Available

    BioLite CampStove Grill - Mountain Equipment Co-op. Free Shipping Available

    BioLite KettlePot - Mountain Equipment Co-op. Free Shipping Available

    That whole kit.... $750 CDN.

    Worth more than an Oz of gold post SHTF?

    Youbetchya.
     
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