Is North Korea the Bait in the Trap?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Yard Dart, Sep 4, 2017.


  1. Yard Dart

    Yard Dart Vigilant Monkey Moderator

    [​IMG]
    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jingping via Getty Images

    Russian and Chinese forces are moving into the area. Both countries are clearly preparing for war. Few doubt that America can defeat North Korea alone, but what will happen if Russia and China pile in? The US military is at its weakest point for many years. Right now Russia and China have big advantages in both conventional and nuclear forces. NATO is weak and divided. America is preoccupied with internal strife not seen since the 1960s. What better time could there possibly be to launch WW3 – especially if President Trump can be lured into a first strike?

    Tactical advantages combined with the moral high ground if the US shoots first make for a very tempting and long awaited opportunity for Moscow and Beijing. It is now the ‘best time in history’ for the China-Russia relationship.

    Why not strike now? Why wait until President Trump has a chance to rebuild Obama’s gravely weakened military?

    Do we think that Russia and China did not learn a lesson from the humiliations of the Reagan era?

    From JR Nyquist.com:

    “The Strategic Significance of “Russia Hacking the Election”

    The political preparation of the morale of the people is of decisive importance in present-day conditions, since the use of weapons of mass destruction in war imposes exceptionally high and unprecedented demands on the political morale of the population.
    Soviet Military Strategy [p. 458]

    Last Autumn Russia held a massive nuclear war civil defense exercise involving 40 million people. Russian TV explained, “Schizophrenics from America are sharpening nuclear weapons for Moscow.” Such was the rationale. Meanwhile the United States has no civil defense training for its population at all. Last February President Vladimir Putin ordered a “snap check” of Russia’s armed forces, wanting to know if Russia’s troops were ready for battle. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, “Special attention should be paid to combat alert, deployment of air defense systems for a time of war.”

    On 20 April 2017 The Sunday Express published photos of Russian youngsters being trained with various weapons. There are pictures of children engaged in field exercises, holding rocket launchers, wearing gas masks. It would seem that the Russian government wants to properly train its young people for war. Yet who is really threatening Russia? Who would be crazy enough to launch a war of aggression against the world’s number one nuclear power?

    Another 20 April headline states: “WW3 TENSIONS RISE: Shock footage shows Putin’s forces moving to North Korea’s border” — which means that Korea is a place to watch, ideally situated as a hotspot. There is a video which supposedly depicts one of three military trains headed toward the North Korean frontier. There have been reports of helicopters and tanks moving through the area as well.

    The evidence of war preparations in Russia and China is plentiful. Russia and China’s prewar moves include: the accumulation of large gold reserves (for when paper currencies begin to collapse); an increase in agricultural output and the stockpiling of food in huge underground cities and bunkers; the production of a new generation of weapons (tanks, fighters, missiles, etc.); the infiltration and corruption of the West’s ruling class; the exploitation of political divisions in the United States for the purpose of destroying social trust or to encourage a civil war; and publicly pretending that the great power rivalry of previous decades is a thing of the past while secretly continuing that rivalry.

    It’s too bad, of course, that the CIA will never discover any of this. The facts may be known, but they will not be acknowledged; instead, they will be explained away. The political imperative of our time has been to claim victory in the Cold War. The economic imperative has been market optimism (i.e., the peace dividend). The West has always been blind to the big picture. Western leaders are psychologically incapable of seeing that Russia and China — as the No. 2 and No. 3 Powers — are logically obligated to strive against the No. 1 Power. As of this writing, the President of the United States may boast that America is ready to rain “fire and fury”on its enemies, but the reality is quite different. America’s enemies are now ready to rain fire and fury upon America; for America is a divided country, intellectually confused, deracinated and demoralized. It is not the powerful, united and stable country of the past. The American people have, in large part, lost their instinct for national self-preservation. They have no real civil defense, yet they do not even feel their defenselessness. They are unprepared and ignorant of their enemy’s motives. Their leaders are a patchwork of plausible crooks, panderers and empty suits.

    Last year an anonymous high-ranking NATO military official was quoted by La Stampa as saying, “We are at war, a hybrid war, the last step before the shooting begins.” This is the kind of quote a journalist gets from a frustrated military insider. In the first instance, the insider is frustrated because the national authorities are not raising more troops or building defenses. The insider speaks to the journalist because the powers-that-be are not listening to him. Therefore he pours out his complaints to a reporter. The truth must be told, after all — even if nobody listens. War is coming. War is being prepared against the West. As the anonymous NATO military official explained, “I’ve never seen so many Russian military exercises and provocations at the same time … [they are] meant to test our readiness.”

    Speaking of tests: Late last year it was reported that Russia tested 162 new weapons since intervening in Syria. Meanwhile, the communist government of China has officially told its citizens to prepare for the start of World War III. Do they know something we don’t? It seems they do. Graham Allison recently pointed out in a Los Angeles Times Op-Ed, “If war breaks out on the Korean peninsula, China is ready to protect its national interests.” According to Allison, the Chinese are preparing to “push deep into North Korea in the event of crisis.” Allison further noted, “If Chinese and American forces again meet in Korea [as they did during the Korean War of 1950-53] the PLA will not at all resemble the low-tech army of the past.”

    Some of our leaders imagine that China and Russia will help the United States contain the North Korean threat. This idea is yet another self-deception. The Russians have given North Korea its weapons of mass destruction. China provides North Korea with conventional weapons and food. There would be no North Korean threat to South Korea, Japan and the U.S. if Russia and China had not nurtured it. Ask yourself why Russia and China have gone to so much trouble? If we have the courage to see, the answer is not far to find.

    It has been my contention, for many years, that the KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn was generally correct in his analysis of the liberalization that led to the collapse of the USSR. Golitsyn predicted the liberalization before it occurred, and he accurately predicted where it would lead. He said that the communist party would appear to lose its monopoly of power. This would allow Russia access to capital and technology it could not have acquired during the Cold War. This capital and technology would enable Russia, further down the road, to build a military machine second to none. Golitsyn argued that Soviet liberalization was devised with this end in mind. It was also devised to eliminate anti-communism and destroy the West’s vigilance so that communism could make gains across the globe without anyone noticing. If we look at what has happened, from Venezuela and Nicaragua to Brazil and Nepal, South Africa, Congo and Angola, communism did not disappear. It has been victorious in country after country. But nobody in the media says anything. And this is quite telling. Even more alarming, the writings of Trevor Loudon and Cliff Kincaid suggest that communism has successfully penetrated the U.S. Government. There are many questions about the Obama administration which have not been asked; yet if we ask in earnest, the answers might prove more than a little alarming.

    The shame of today’s “experts” is their failure to recognize that Golitsyn’s main thesis has endured the test of time. Even more important, his thesis continues to explain what we see today — and what is presently unfolding. Whatever errors he made, Golitsyn grasped the essence of Sino-Soviet grand strategy. It is this strategy that is now manifest in the provocations of North Korea. The old Communist Bloc never went away. It still exists behind the facade of “capitalist” China and “Democratic” Russia. It’s tentacles in Eastern Europe remain intact. It’s agent networks and allied communist parties are still in operation. The North Korean regime is an openly communist regime, even now. It was part of the Communist Bloc and is still supported by Moscow the same as in 1950. The importance of North Korea for Russia and China lies in its geography. Korea is situated in the one theater of operations where Russian and Chinese military forces can unite most effectively together.

    The next point to be made about Russian and Chinese war preparations is tricky. In the modern world, military aggression is generally viewed as bad. Those who start wars of aggression are said to be criminals. It follows that the governments of Russia and China want the United States to start the next world war. They want the United States to be criminally culpable. In fact, for many decades Russian military textbooks have assumed that the next great war will be started by the Americans. We read in V.D. Sokolovskiy’s authoritative text, Soviet Military Strategy, “The class essence of bourgeois military strategy lies in the fact that it serves the reactionary aim of preparing war to destroy the most progressive social system — socialism — and to prevent the inevitable development of mankind along the road to communism.” (p. 515, Rand Trans).

    It is, in fact, part of Russian and Chinese military doctrine that a future war will be started by the Americans. But do not be fooled. The Russians and Chinese will choose the time and place to begin the war. Through a satellite country they will engineer an irresistible provocation (i.e., an alleged lunatic brandishing nuclear weapons). To this end they have built up Iran and North Korea. We should have no illusions about this. America will be goaded into striking first. But the truth is, Russia and China will use America’s desperate preemptive measures to justify a much larger war of aggression; for the Russian and Chinese military doctrines only pretend to be defensive. In fact, both countries have built their military forces for attacking a distant enemy — the United States of America. One Russian military text states, quite clearly, that, “We believe that the main determinant in the attack is the most decisive operation possible, having for its purpose the total destruction of the enemy’s armed forces, and particularly the destruction of his nuclear weapons; that is, the achievement of results such that he would no longer be capable of offering further resistance.” [From an article by Lt. Gen of Aviation, G. Lobov titled “Comments on Types and Forms of Combat Operations,” Voyennay mysl, 1964, no. 11, p. 15.]

    You cannot write such a thing unless you are contemplating a surprise attack; for the safest way to destroy America’s nuclear weapons is to attack them before they are launched. This idea is implied throughout Russian military literature. When I was interviewing the Russian military intelligence defector Stanislav Lunev in 1998, journalist Christopher Ruddy asked him what was the most decisive factor in determining the outcome of a future war. Lunev said it was surprise. Let us be perfectly clear: the Russians plan to strike first. Yet, this strike cannot be out of the blue.

    Here is where North Korea comes in. It is the geographical point at which Russian and Chinese forces can be combined. It is a regime predicated on nuclear provocation. How long can the United States continue to ignore the “North Korean madman”? Thus, it is only obvious that the United States is being goaded, little by little. The American president is being led to believe that he hasn’t any choice in the matter, that North Korea must be preemptively attacked.

    And what happens if the U.S. launches a preemptive attack on North Korea?

    The Russians and Chinese will denounce as “aggression” any preemptive strike on North Korea and launch a prompt counter-attack against the United States. In the resulting battle the United States would almost certainly lose an aircraft carrier. The blow to American prestige would be tremendous. The president of the United States would probably be forced to resign, or he would be impeached. Perhaps there would be a military coup. The dollar would fall and America’s allies would be encouraged by Russia and China to abandon the United States and realign themselves with the new East Bloc.

    Next, we must consider (in this context) the ongoing investigation of the 2016 election and the oft-heard public accusations against the President of the United States; namely, that he is in the pay of the Russians — or that the Russians put him in the White House. If so, why did they put him there? Such a question seems absurd in the context of peace. In the context of a world war, however, this question is like a dagger aimed at America’s heart; for as the U.S. commander-in-chief is accused of colluding with Russia, what becomes of national morale? Immediately the country is divided on the rightfulness of the highest military authority, and a “house divided” cannot stand.

    Therefore we must add to the list of Russia’s war preparations the idea — inserted into our national consciousness — that Russia “hacked the U.S. presidential election.” This idea wounds the U.S. president and damages national morale in advance of a war. In fact, it is probable that this idea was invented in a Russian think tank with a military purpose in mind. As we see from the “Golden Shower Dossier,” Russia has intentionally fueled this rumor of Trump’s disloyality.

    There is also the campaign, which began in 2013, in which Putin is portrayed as a Christian and defender of Western Civilization. This is absurd, of course, and only believed by people who haven’t studied Putin carefully. Yet Patrick Buchanan, a famous American conservative, praises Putin and encourages other conservatives to follow suit. Meanwhile, the same Leftists who would have been arrested if war had broken out in 1973 are posturing as anti-Russian patriots. If war breaks out, who is sent to prison? Conservatives or Marxists?

    The bizarre political situation of today, whereby the Left levels treason charges against an elected American president, represents a stunning role reversal. The evidence against President Trump does not warrant the resulting hysteria which continues month after month. And yet, if anyone wishes to understand this strange development they have only to realize that it’s part of a Russian prewar active measure — plain and simple. There is no other interpretation of these events that so succinctly and perfectly explains them.

    Is North Korea the Bait in the Trap? Will Russia and China Combine to Strike America?
     
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  2. Dunerunner

    Dunerunner Brewery Monkey Moderator

    Something to think about...

    I always thought China was smart enough to realize that the United States was its largest consumer. Destroy that source and their economy collapses. The Russians cannot fill that gap, their economy is in the toilet. Without a market for all the things China makes, they would fall into a financial depression that they may not be able to recover from.

    Here is my take. China and Russia see North Korea as a short fuse on the WWIII firecracker and I think is scares them as much as it does us. They don't want to deal with it and it is politically advantageous to them to have the Evil U.S. deal with it as they can then manipulate the UN to condemn the United States for any perceived to be unwarranted attack on NOKO.

    With the recent provocation of an ICBM fired over Japan and the testing of a nuclear device by the North, the have baited the trap. From now on, any ICBM they launch toward Japan, Guam, or the Continental U.S. must be considered to be a Hot Weapon and be dealt with as such by our military. At that point, it will test this administration on its willingness to create an international incident by attacking the North or following a more prudent path by intercepting the missile and destroying it.

    These are tense times and the Russians and Chinese would be well served to play the peacemakers rather that plot over some ill conceived plan to divide the spoils after the conflict. A World Wide Nuclear conflict would leave little to divide.
     
  3. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    The Chinese and Russians want to have their Troops on the Boarder, because they BOTH understand that if we decide to Take out NK, they do NOT want us, on their Boarders... So they will invade, to keeps out, and do the Ground Pounding in NK for their OWN Interests.... You can be sure that NOT ONE of the Little FAT BOY's Lapdog Generals will be left alive from the Top all the way down to the lowliest Private, it they invade... NO use Messing around and letting happen again, with a NEW Little Fat Boy.. They will NOT be kind to ANY NK Politico....
     
  4. Legion489

    Legion489 Rev. 2:19 Banned

    Pretty much what I was thinking. Since the US is keeping both eCONomies afloat, and feeding Russia, with the Chinese owning 90% of the USSA (all copper mines, most gold/silver mines, GM, HI, Hongcouver, 97% of our national debt) they do not want a radioactive waste land to move people into if they can avoid it.
     
  5. Ura-Ki

    Ura-Ki Grudge Monkey

    Interesting article, but it is fragmented, and didn't explain the strategic goals of war between the powers. Why would China and Russia wage war with the U.S?
     
  6. Ura-Ki

    Ura-Ki Grudge Monkey

    BT has most of it! As of right now, nether Russia or China have the naval assets to invade a foreign land with enough troupes to make it stick, and to resupply once they invade! Neither have a navy worthy of being called a navy, and with out one, they can never leave the home land!
     
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  7. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Yes, it was an interesting article but terribly flawed in many ways...not sure I have time to document them all this morning but here's a few thoughts...

    I think in general @Dunerunner has hit on one of the major points of concern for China and that is keeping the lid on its population by keeping them fed and employed and you do not do that by killing your consumers or destroying trade relations with them.

    Also, @Ura-Ki asks the correct question "Why would China and Russia wage war with the U.S?" What do they have to gain?

    Russia's military is not the powerhouse of the Soviet Union, not even close. And, their military has finally started to rebuild after years of neglect which takes time, a lot of time... Are they ready to risk conflict with the US over North Korea and if so to what purpose. They most I could see is if they offered material support to North Korea and let them do the bleeding but direct involvement with ground troops? No, I don't see and the Russian people would not support it either - which another big point for as I stated this is not the Soviet Union.

    "...the United States would almost certainly lose an aircraft carrier. The blow to American prestige would be tremendous. The president of the United States would probably be forced to resign, or he would be impeached." Absolutely ridiculous! Anything can happen in war and if we lost a carrier or even a carrier group this would not cause for impeachment. Silly notion...

    "Putin is portrayed as a Christian and defender of Western Civilization. This is absurd..."
    No it is not. It is quite logical and necessary. Putin's effort to get friendly with the Church is the same as all of our Presidents do in this country. It's a politically sound doctrine. Do our presidents want the support of the religious masses? Of course they do as it is a powerful political force.The Russians have a deep belief in religion and it carried on even through the Stalin years. The thought that they are 'Godless communists' was and is utter bullshit.

    A far as China and Russia massing forces on the border...well, why not. If we do indeed attack North Korea they would want their forces prepare to ensure that we do not cross the line into their country. I mean, we will have a large mobile battle ready force right there with all logistics necessary. We would do the same in their position to protect our country? I would hope so!

    Does anyone believe we would attack North Korea without telling and discussing it with the Chinese and Russians first? I assure you we will and in great depth. All such military actions are discuss at that level no matter where it happens in the world.

    Something is going to have to happen and soon or North Korea will become a nuclear power and I don't think anyone wants that. The question is how to rid the world of this is the question which all major powers will have to agree upon. We cannot and will not initiate a nuclear first strike because that would not be condone by the rest of the world, not just Russia and China, so that means either conventional warfare or a coup from within or breaking the golden rule and assassinate the bugger.

    All-in-all an interesting article but much of it doesn't pass the logic test. The big question is 'What do China or Russia have to gain by joining into a war with the United States?" And, the answer is not much...
     
  8. Imasham

    Imasham Monkey

    Umm...you should check a map...Russia and China border North Korea. They don't need naval assets to invade it? China can just drive over the Yalu river bridge and take the highway direct to Pyongyang. It's only 220km. And as the article states Russian forces are massing at NKs northern border.
     
  9. DKR

    DKR Raconteur of the first stripe

    The last time the Chinese military was used as a military (and not a low-cost jobs program) was back in early 1979 ( see Third Indochina War) . Short version - Henry J. Kenny, a research scientist for US Center for Naval Analyses, notes that most Western writers agree that Vietnam outperformed the PLA on the battlefield.

    China still has major issues with Russia and the border area is still heavily defended.

    The last thing China wants is a united Korea, controlled by an a gov't allied with the US on it border.

    I will also note that Kim (et al) will never give up his nukes as that may be the only thing keeping him alive. One must remember the US has quite the recent history of murdering foreign heads of state - either directly or via a proxy force, that the US finds...disagreeable. .
     
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  10. Ura-Ki

    Ura-Ki Grudge Monkey

    One other point to consider with Russia, they are seriously fragmented with most of the civilian population living in the Ukrainian districts, much of the industrial and farming is located in the Ukraine, much of the military production and training centers are in the Ukraine, so that leaves Russia with a major problem! Combine all that with a serious lack of naval bases controlled by Russian Federation forces, and a seriously land locked pair of active bases that can be swept from the board at will, and Putin has a MAJOR head ache! Russian air assets are at best 20 years behind in technology and capabilities, and they lack the numbers to fight both east and west, further more, the Russian air forces were never designed for offensive operations out side the very strict command and control of ground forces, so they are hamstrung by their own doctrine, and cannot deal with a fast moving fluid fight with a first rate air force that has a shit ton of operational experience using the latest assets!
    The notion of a great naval battle is as out dated as it is absurd, the U.S. Navy dosnt fight other navies head to head, they fight by attrition, and they fight to eliminate submarine threats before the battle group could be brought under threat!!! China is at least another 10 years behind Russia, and at best could only prolong the enevatable a short time!
     
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  11. Ura-Ki

    Ura-Ki Grudge Monkey

    Your thinking locally, not globally! What I pointed out is nether country has the ability to land HERE in the U.S. and you cannot take and hold land with out boots on the ground and support for those boots! The other thing, lacking a naval force, once ether of them March troupes across the river into NK, they fully expose those troupes to the full might and fury of the U.S. Navy from all sides of the pensula!!!!
     
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  12. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    Why would WE, the USA, attack the Chinese, and or Russians, for doing what needs to be done.... I think Trump would launch a conventional strike, on NK if provoked by a Missile Launch at Guam, or one of our Bases in, or near Japan.... and then Invite the Chinese and Russians to go grab whatever they want, and setup whatever Puppet .Gov they choose.... As long as ALL the ,MIL and Nuke Scientists are WHACKED, and the technology DESTROYED, completely.... That will send a message, WORLDWIDE, NO New Players in the Nuke Club... Hey Iran, are youListening???
     
  13. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Good discussion here...

    "The last thing China wants is a united Korea, controlled by an a gov't allied with the US on it border."
    This is a valid point but I wonder given the economically situation between China and the US and given the political situation of having a nutcase neighbor with nukes might make the Chinese reconsider.

    "Combine all that with a serious lack of naval bases controlled by Russian Federation forces..."
    The only warm water port under direct control that I can think of is Sevastopol...but they do have the new deal with India for a port but don't think it has become a reality yet. Also, even Sevastopol, which is a major naval base (if I remember correctly) could be bottled up quickly before it got out into the Med and besides it's a long ways away from NK.

    Here is another scenario... What if China or even Russia initiated an attack on NK? Or, a more likely scenario would be the US attacks under the agreement that China and Russia gets some of the spoils, mostly likely land.
     
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  14. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    My thinking, forecasting if you will:
    Fat boy launches something, anything, and no matter what it is, tracking watches and determines it might be headed for someplace we (or China, or Russia) like. Anti missile battery takes it out and one or the other of the US, China, or Russia allows as how that should not be repeated by fat boy. That will be on radio, TV, word of mouth and acoustics across the 38th parallel, and quite possibly by hollow bomblets with notes inside. Fat boy's dot mil gets the message and takes him out of the equation somehow, and a new, less chest thumping premier is brought up to serve as the face of the military regime. It is well within the realm of possibility they will look for lots of economic help in return for on site witnessing of the nuclear weapons program destruction by the main players. Uv cuss, nuclear fuel for power will be exempted but all other nuc isotopes will be exported to someplace more reliable. Guess who --
    Alternatively, fat boy continues chest thumping until a big. nasty surprise is found in his palace arriving from someplace high in the sky and things go to a heap of dung from there.

    ETA:China may be the real target of North Korea's pressure: Analysts
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
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  15. VisuTrac

    VisuTrac Ваша мать носит военные ботинки Site Supporter+++

    Well if Rods of Thor exist. This may be a good test of the theory.
     
  16. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    What makes him think that a Cobra, or BlackHawk couldn,t make mincemeat out of those things with a short Burst of 20mm... I mean the US Army has plenty of them in SK, to do the job,,, and with a Bell OH-58 Kiowa, using a Millimeter Radar, those things stick out like a "Sore Thumb"... Now if it were made out of Spruce Covered Canvas, with Plastic Fuel Tanks, Maybe.... but with Aluminum Skin, and Framing, and that GIANT Radial Up Front... Not a chance in Hell....
     
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  17. duane

    duane Monkey+++

    Most of the people in the USA seem to think that the goal of China and Russia is to conquer the USA and occupy it. I believe that Russia wishes to remove us from our dominant economic, political and military position, restore the vassal states that created a defense in depth around mother Russia, and restore their former glory. China wishes to expand its political, economic, and military thru out Asia and into the rich resources of Africa.For that to happen they need neither a navy or a nuclear war. The present project is working quite well. We are indeed at war and under the present leadership, of all political parties, we are rapidly losing. The big headlines, budget, failed super weapons, gender changing operations, removing leaders for supposed political, social, or gender comments. etc, is rapidly destroying much of our formerly magnificent military. The F-4 etc may have crude by today's standards but they worked as did the people who crewed them and maintained them. I hope that we don't stumble into a major war, as I think no one wants one, but we no longer have a sensible world wide military control system and Iran, North Korea, some rouge islamist group, etc, may trigger events that lead to a total war.

    I am afraid that the next real war will be fought with wheat rust, hoof and mouth disease, fruit flies, modified malaria, etc, and it will probably be delivered not in a bomber or missile, but in a can of beans in a case of imported food delivered to some terrorist's house by UPS. That is my real nightmare.

    We haven't done well with the present accidental introductions, fire ants, African bees, Gypsy moths, Ash borers, citrus canker, etc come to mind .
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
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  18. VisuTrac

    VisuTrac Ваша мать носит военные ботинки Site Supporter+++

    And the cruise speed and range kinda suck.
     
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  19. sec_monkey

    sec_monkey SM Security Administrator

    the OH-58s have been retired

    replaced by AH-64s :D
     
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  20. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    Ok, but their Millimeter Radar is still in use as is all the Targeting DataLinks back to the Shooters...
     
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