MGen (ret) Vallely" the Summer 2010 is pivotal for Israel"

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Tango3, May 23, 2010.

  1. Tango3

    Tango3 Aimless wanderer

    (Video)Maj GEN ret Vallely commenting: "The summer of 2010 will be pivotal in the middle east "situation":Things heating up

    RE: Iranian movements in the middle east setting up against Israel (i.e soviet submarine seen docked in beirut off loading hazmat,flying Iranian flag)

    PJTV - Mpg
  2. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    Strange things are a-foot at the Circle-K..
  3. Tango3

    Tango3 Aimless wanderer

    that story lead me to this blog:

    Monday, May 10, 2010

    The Summer Games

    I've been travelling up and down Israel the last several weeks talking with the young men and women who are either in service or recently out of service. They are an incredible group. They are bright, fit, clear, and incredibly pleasant company. They are also very sober with how things are shaping up. They will be the ones in Harm's Way.

    There's a place where I go to look at stars where the Israel Trail cuts through.


    On any given night, I will run into four to six young people eager to play with telescopes, share some tea and food around a campfire, and talk about things to come.

    The coming war is on everyone's mind.

    One group I met was made up of a core of young women who started walking the trail a month and a half ago, about a month after they got out of service. They are joined by friends, their guys who are still serving, and others, like me, they meet and enlist in their Progress. One woman commanded a missile battery in the Negev, two others were education officers, a few of the guys walking with them were submariners, and one of the beaus is a Navy XO who took his spring leave of two weeks to walk the trail with his belle. He says with a smile he's not sure when he'll get another chance.

    None of the ones serving gave straight answers but we all played a game of twenty questions.

    Here's my take.

    It's a two by two table. Either Israel takes the first round or strikes first. Either Tel Aviv gets the first BIG hit or Jerusalem. While the obvious scenerio is with Tel Aviv, the market center getting hit, there is far more potency for Iran to strike Jerusalem hard. I'll come back to this later. No one here has any doubt that Iran has a big weapon and that they will use it. To play the American Game (like in 1991) will mean that Israel will have to wait for Iran to fire first. The longer that time plays out, the greater the risk that the first strike will be atomic. A Hiroshima sized weapon will hurt.

    For Israel to attack first will immediately set off rocket bombardments from Syria and Hizbullah. The lunatics in Hamastan will also join in but they will be the first to feel the IDF fist. There will be no pulling punches this time. The question is whether the West Bankers will also open fire. The general Israeli feeling, given their training, is that the expectation is that all hell will break loose.

    Israel has required all new housing to include bomb shelters--BIG ones built into the foundations of all new constructions--iron, steel, and thick concrete. These things will hold; so, the majority of damage will be real estate. Ironically, those at risk are those who have been flaunting the housing codes--many of the Israeli Arabs in the north. As in 2006, rockets can't tell the difference between believers and infidels.

    In 2006, Hizbullah lacked both accuracy and power. This will not be the case in this war. Their fire power is hot and heavy. But they are up against a professional army that has been drilling and preparing constantly for the last four years under a tough and charismatic infantry soldier. This will not be an IAF war. The IDF is prepared. After the missiles, expect the Israelis response to be strong.

    For a country where officials are not accountable in local elections directly to the electorate, there is a lot of road building, resurfacing, and repair going on. Virtually EVERY major roadway has been resurfaced right down to the matrix. Amazing. One might say that these roads are now able to handle loads of up to 50 tons on 18 wheels.

    Security is tight. Young men and women in green dress in Kevlar now as a matter of course. Small convoys are everywhere--earlier this week on my drive to the Negev, I saw numerous squads of green armor clad warriors on foot going house to house. Route 443 that runs from Jerusalem to Modi'in has new razor wire as of yesterday. AND, the reserve police (in green) are staffed by gristled men our age patrolling parks and back roads.

    This was NOT the case DURING the 2006 war.

    Materiel is being moved north and south regularly. Flatbeds are hauling Jeeps and tanks south; hundreds of Johnsons and Evinudes in both directions. My young XO suggested that the Navy is not going to be idle--there are UAVs in all branches of the theater.

    What befounds everyone here is, "what's doing with the US Navy?" When Mullens was here before talking about "unintended consequences", these young soldiers wanted to know--"what's this guy thinking?" All those young Americans are sitting in a duck pond named after the prevaricator of the coming BIG ONE--don't they get that the Persians want it and mean to sink a couple of big boats if only to gloat?

    If the Americans think they are going to sit this one out, then the only unintended consequence is that Mullens was given command. EVERYONE here is in theater and that includes the guys and gals sitting in Persia's Gulf.

    That brings me back to the "hit" side of the two by two table. No one's talking about who will hit first. But, the nods and sober looks suggest differential probabilities on the hit.

    It cannot be overstated enough that anyone who thinks this coming war is about Israel is either an idiot or a fool--and that is a command consequence that one wants to think about. This war is about Xerxes and the New Persians. They are back. Israel is just the example. The real target is to the South and East.
    Back in 2006, Hizbullah rocketry sucked. They through large amounts of metal and given targets and couldn't hit the broad side of a mountain. Their hits were confined to large grey spots on the local roadmaps where the urban area was large enough that at least ONE rocket would hit. At the time, I joked that what they needed was a large bulls eye target and a group of pigeons in the nose cone of the rocket peaking their way to ground zero.

    Let's just assume for a minute that Xerxes commissioned some Tehran University students to recreate Skinner's Pigeons in the Pelican. Where can Iran score the biggest hit that will send the greatest message to the Saudis, and to the Europeans--Jerusalem.

    Jerusalem is a Bull's Eye City. ​
    [​IMG] The Old City is quite visible high up; very dense and sits inside a pronounced bowl.

    [​IMG]Aside from the Temple Mount, most of the place is old real estate of Italian European origins and more Christian Domes that Muslim. Given that the Israelis are NEVER going to let Jerusalem be divided again, Xerxes's solution is a pathetic homage to Solomon--let NO ONE HAVE IT. Blowing away the Faithful only hastens their entrance into Paradise.

    The Message, however, to the Saudis, as custodians of the Faith, Mecca, and Medina is crystal clear: "Mecca is another Bulls Eye City. We took out Jerusalem; we'll take out Mecca--and no one will stop us."


    So is Rome. For that matter, given the new Russian containerized missile launchers, virtually every Blue State in the US is a target. During 2006, when Israeli Arabs were killed by Hizbullah fire, Nasrallah praised their deaths as martyrs for the cause. Don't expect appeals to the horror of collateral damage to work on that side of this conflict. But Israelis fully expect that they will be held accountable for all incoming.

    Well, these sure are interesting times. We shall have to wait until this summer to see how things fall out. My friend Arik says, I sure hope they wait until August when everyone is on vacation. I say, I hope I'm wrong.

    [​IMG]<script src="" type="text/javascript"> </script>
    By Daniel Jackson [​IMG]
    Categories: Foreign Affairs, Iran, Israel, Middle East


    Sense of Events: The Summer Games
  4. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    We have an Israeli resident member, hopefully he'll check in on this. We prep, they prep, everybody preps. And, we hope, unnecessarily. Looks like the IDF is prepping, and we can hope they don't need it either.
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