Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by Bear, Jul 29, 2006.

  1. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    So GDP is down, corporate earnings are "ho hum", Real Estate is still softening, Israel and Hezbollah are still exchanging blows, North Korea is still sabre rattling, we still have pretty porous borders, the superpowers seem to be polarizing on the middle east and nuclear capabilities, Oil is a wildcard, consumer spending may be slowing, our financial system's sustainability is questionable and personal savings has been negative for some time now....:rolleyes:

    But the market had a great run on Friday and Gold and Silver seem to have been successfully detached from their historical "flight to safety" status.....:rolleyes:

    So what's next? :D
  2. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    I think it's party time Bear!

    This can't last so enjoy it while it does

    I feel so alone., I may have to max out a CC just to be a part of this bullshit
  3. ghostrider

    ghostrider Resident Poltergeist Founding Member

    Preliminary figures for the quarter showed a GDP growth of 2.5%, showing that the Federal Funds Rate hikes slowed down the overheated economy. Corporate America is not sure if that means this is a peak, so they are cautious, but still hiring. The real estate market was overpriced, so is doing an adjustment. North Korea just wants money, they figured Bush II would be as easy as Clinton to blackmail.

    The best thing the U.S Congress could do would be to allow offshore drilling off our other two coasts. The supply would drive down costs, the extra jobs created in the oilfield and various service industries would mobilize a few hundred thousand of the unemployed. Everybody wins except for a few Democrats, who don't want to see the economy booming, so they will fight it to the death.
  4. ghostrider

    ghostrider Resident Poltergeist Founding Member

    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=440 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=headlineblack style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 5px">U.S. Economy Adds 113,000 Jobs in July, Unemployment Rises to 4.8 Percent</TD></TR><TR><TD class=storytext style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px">Friday, August 04, 2006
    [​IMG] <TABLE id=nointelliTXT cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=262 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
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    <SCRIPT language=JavaScript>writeScroll(openTab2,'2');</SCRIPT>

    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>WASHINGTON — Hiring slowed in July as employers added just 113,000 new jobs, propelling the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 4.8 percent and providing fresh evidence that companies are growing cautious amid high energy prices. Wages grew solidly.
    The latest snapshot Friday from the Labor Department added to the evidence from a variety of economic barometers that the economy is slowing and inflation is rising. Those conflicting forces present the Federal Reserve with a dilemma over interest rates when policymakers meet next week.
    Click here to visit FOXBusiness.com's Economy Center.
    The tally of new jobs last month did not match the 124,000 added in June and was the lowest total since May, when payrolls grew by 100,000.
    The civilian unemployment rate jumped from 4.6 percent in June to 4.8 percent in July, matching the jobless rate in February. The rate had not risen since November.
    Economists had forecast a gain of about 145,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.6 percent.
    Manufacturers shed 15,000 jobs in July, while employment in retailing was flat, combining to restrain overall hiring.
    (Story continues below)
    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=430><TBODY><TR><TD class=adHead></TD></TR><TR><TD><SCRIPT type=text/javascript>adsonar_pid=150758;adsonar_ps=406668;adsonar_zw=440;adsonar_zh=120;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com';</SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=JavaScript src="/js/adsonar.js"></SCRIPT><FORM id=qas_frm style="DISPLAY: none; MARGIN: 0px" name=qas_frm action="" method=get target=""> </FORM></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    Workers' average hourly earnings rose to $16.76 in July, 0.4 percent higher than in June. Economists anticipated a 0.3 percent rise. Wage growth is welcomed by workers. But a rapid and sustained pickup in wages, if not blunted by other economic forces, can touch off inflation fears.
    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last month that he was concerned about rising prices, but hoped a slowing economy eventually would ease inflationary pressures.
    The Fed is meeting on Tuesday, and some economists believe the central bank will leave interest rates alone, taking its first break after tightening credit for more than two years.
    Friday's weaker job growth would justify such a breather, offering more evidence of slowing economic activity.
    Others Fed-watchers who are worried about inflation think policymakers have another interest-rate jump in store.
    The Fed steadily has raised rates 17 times since June 2004, each in increments of one-quarter of a percentage point, to prevent inflation from taking off.
    The hiring slowdown comes as companies cope with soaring energy prices and higher interest rates. Oil prices reached a new closing high of $77.03 a barrel in the middle of July, though they have moderated slightly since then.
    In these conditions, businesses and consumers -- engines of economic activity -- have turned cautious. That, in turn, has slowed the economy.
    Growth in the second half of this year is expected to stay subdued, at pace of about 2.5 percent to 3 percent, according to projections from some economists.
    The economy slowed to a pace of 2.5 percent in the April-to-June quarter, compared with the 5.6 percent growth rate in the first three months of the year.
  5. ghostrider

    ghostrider Resident Poltergeist Founding Member

    Should mean the economy is slowed to a sustainable rate of growth, and the rate hikes are over. This is the end of the second quarter, so more economic news is coming. If any more is bad, and I were a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board, I would vote for a quarter point drop, just as an adjustment. That should be close to the natural rate of cost of capital for our economy.
  6. Ardent Listener

    Ardent Listener Monkey+++

    All I know for sure is that opinions are the cheapest commodities on earth.:D
  7. ghostrider

    ghostrider Resident Poltergeist Founding Member

    Fed met today, no rate hike. Federal Funds rate @5.25 %, I saw an actual 5.29 today. Maybe my drop will be next meeting.
  8. stimpy117

    stimpy117 Monkey+++

    Back away from the CC little doggie...................
    AND DROP THE HYPO!!!!!!!!!!!!
  9. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Well... the asteriod didn't hit, August 22 came and went, Oil dropped, PMs dropped, the dollar dropped, the markets are flat... elections are coming up.... Nations are huffing and puffing and sabre rattling all over the globe....

    Nothing follows any common sense or historical trends for that matter anymore....

    Maybe that's the problem.... there is no such thing as "common" sense and the historical trends don't apply when it comes to these things these days....:cool:

    Be prepared to be unprepared and expect the unexpected.... after that and not before .... party on!:D
  10. Wild Trapper

    Wild Trapper Pirate Biker

    Bear, It did give me a chance to trade FRNs for gold... hehehe

    You wouldn't be the same bear, (different name), I know from another forum, would ya?
  11. ghostrider

    ghostrider Resident Poltergeist Founding Member

    What's really amazing is the strength of this economy, that even $70 oil couldn't derail the growth. A half-the-price spike in 1990 put us in a recession, but this one is still growing at a borderline inflationary pace.
  12. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Hey WT.... welcome to the board... not sure if I know you.... there's alot of "bears in the woods"...:D

    Ghostrider... Yup... all the predictions about the price of oil and gas derailing something or another and causing some kind of economic "cascade" seem to be a bunch of "huey"....

    Or... there's just so much momentum in this consumer spending "train" that little things like "loose tracks", "debris ahead", "bad food", "not enough rooms" and "conductors asleep at the wheel" don't seem to bother folks enough to get off at the next stop.....

    Fear and Worry are downers.... "passengers" don't like to hear or talk about it when they are on the "train".... so they "party on" to forget about it... its no wonder savings are at a negative... too much to fear and worry about... so spending is at a high and savings is at a low.... living life like there is no tommorrow is going to be a real bummer for alot of folks when they realize that there is a tommorrow and the train will stop by the "river" and there will be a "ferryman" to pay... unfortunately... most will have nothing to "pay the ferryman"....

    Guess I like analogies huh....:D
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