Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by melbo, Mar 2, 2006.
Wow... THat's a big line to cross for alot of reasons.
Found this today:
5 yr Silver:
Maybe I have misunderstood the reason for buying Silver & Gold.
I thought that it was for buying stuff when shtf. You are reccomending selling part of it when it hits certain amounts?
But you will just get Fed Reserve notes (of dubious value) when you do.
So help me out here, what's your reasoning?
Someone in another forum asked "When do I sell Silver?"
Here was my response:
When do you sell silver ?
That's like asking When do I sell FRNs ......I 'sell' them when I have something else I want to buy.......recently, I 'sell' FRNs a LOT since they don't have the one quality of money I'm looking for......a store of value.
Silver is money. Spend it when you have something you want to buy.
Simple as that.
but actually I woud modify it to say "Spend your FRNs as long as they have value, then you can start on the silver" Gresham's law.
Melbo you are looking pretty smart.
CG, THere are a few strategies here. THey are mine and may not work for all....
One is for SHTF and future Barter, storage of wealth etc. THis I have in 90% (pre-65 Us Copins) and will more than likely never sell TRADE for FRNs (Federal Reserve Notes or Dollars)
Another strategy is looking at PMs as an alternative to other investments like Stocks, Real Estate, and Bank accounts ~YUCK....
Others look at Gold and Silver as the true units of "Wealth". Can't inflate it by printing more. It doesn't exist as a series of 0s and 1s on a Citibank or Federal Reserve server... Doesn't rust, fade or deteriorate in bad weather etc.
My personal strategy and PM position has about 50% for SHTF/ Wealth preservation. I won't move off it even if silver goes to $2,000 an oz. The other 50% is for profit taking if rises in price occur. That piece I quoted above lists If at X, sell 10%, if at X, sell 10%, and so on for a total of 40%. That seems to hold back 60% in reserve.
Yesterday or the day before there was an error in the FOREX quote feed. It listed silver at $200 an oz. Wow. I knew it was an error but did some quick math. That would have put a $1000 bag of 90% at $138,000. At 10 an oz, they're selling for $7,100ish.
When I see $25, $50, $100, or $500 an oz.... I'll sell my 'Investment stuff" for FRNs. (which will be even more worthless than they were this morning)
Why would I ever want to trade real Money for worthless FRNs?
Dunno. I read on the internet that I should...
J/K. I would trade Half my metal for paper for only a few reasons. Most have current 'fixed' debts consisting of a Mortgage or 2 and a few auto loans. Even if silver goes to $1000 an oz, That mortgage will still be $100,000. Trade the metal to pay off the loans.
Another reason to trade would be to further our lists of preps. We all have a few items we would love to have in a SHTF but can't aford right now. Think Self sufficient, 500 acre ranch in state of your choosing. Use the Obscene profits to make that happen.
Another thing to keep in mind is that we all have to continue to 'function' now, before the Collapse. That may include College for kids, Home improvements, 30th Anniversary gifts etc. We are in a state of preparing for something that most hope will never happen. Can't live in a hole now all the time- You'd go mad Take some profits and go to Hawaii or somthing
Again. I only leave half my metal for trade or profit taking.
One thing I don't see talked about much on these boards is what Bear calls the reverse bell curve that emcompasses The spiral down to SHTF, actual SHTF, and the ramp back up from SHTF. The downward move and Upward move will last much longer than the actual doldrums. At least that's our theory. Humans are pretty innovative at times and I feel that almost anything that drops on our heads can be overcome when we all roll up our shirtsleeves and get to work.
I'll let Bear chime in on the Ramp up and ramp down uses for PMs
So CG, I'm not advocating selling Silver because it is at a 25 yr high. I'm planning to sell some at 25, some more at 50, and then some more at 100. Pay off some debt, Buy my Island and then hold the rest for the Dark ages.
Also. I really hope that the upward trend in silver continues at a slow pace. A sudden Skyrocket to $200 would scare people and it may be considered an artificail panic price that is the result of other SNAFU'd situations around the world. That becomes a game of Hot Potato... No one wants to hold the metal for very long for fear that the price might dive again. Slow and steady will become accepted along the way. Incrementalism to PM holders advantage. Nice $1 leaps every couple weeks with a slight pullback and then a few days at a plateau and repeat will make me a very happy camper
Hope this makes sense. I went back on Crack today
Hope this makes sense. I went back on Crack today [/quote]
Makes too much sense for you to be on Crack.
Ok another question. If everything is paid .. no debts & you have your place maybe not everything you could want for SHTF time, but not bad either. Would you still sell for FRN's when things are going to cost more at the same time?
BTW got Molon today and am on page 67, very good read so far ...thanks for mentioning it
At that point I would look at that 50% as an investment in lieu of a IRA/401K
One thing to keep in mind. An ounce of Silver does not change in value. Only the Dollar rises and falls against it. But, The rest of the economy is slow to see this.
Case in Point:
Gold has doubled in the last 5 yrs. But a Glock 19 is still around $500. You can play the lag time in the economy to load up on some durable goods if the price is right.
Some of the low was the Post Y2K selloff, with people selling off their temporary positions in PM, driving the price artificially low. The volitility, the ramp up and downs are when you can make the most money.
Some other things that I would consider in selling off PMs for FRNs (if I had the money to invest in them in the first place lol) would be like mentioned above that you may have fixed debts like say a mortgage and if a collapse is comeing get the worthless FRNs they want and pay off those loans so no one comes to repo say your land or car, also it is likely to take the sheeple some time to comprehend their pretty paper is worthless and so they may still accept it even well into a collapse. Other than that you may be able to turn it into FRNs and use that to pick up loads of other barterable things like say a bunch of TP, seasonings and so on that other folks may consider more valuable than the PMs.
One realy great point I saw made on another forum was that the most important thing to be prepaired for is nothing. In other words, yeah its good to be prepaired for TEOTWAKI but its also just as likely that we may NOT see that occure in our life time and so its also important to continue to live in the world as it is while we prepaire for whatever may come. A good example might be say if you were low on FRNs and got the chance to buy a bunch of ammo that you would use or maybe your vehicle breaks down and needs to be fixed/replaced, the PMs are there for barter (and/or investment) so if you need something then you can use them to get what you need now just the same as you would post SHTF, after all whats the point of haveing 20 bags of PM setting around in case of SHTF if you starve or whatever before hand.
Just my take on it. :dunno:
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