Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by 5artist5, Oct 10, 2012.
So what is your take on the current "Silver Bubble"? Will it pop soon? Is silver going back to $10?
Hell I hope it goes back to 10, I'll buy on the way down too!
that being said, with QE what ever number it is and the ECB saying they will buy worthless bonds. People will always flee to safety. For some people it will be the USD (i think they are stupid to swap one fiat for another) but, it's their choice.
I'd prefer to say that with the pressure being applied by the central banksters to keep the price of PM's artificially low is analogous to having a bottle of soda / pop / coke and keep shaking it. As soon as the people realize that fiat is a sham, someone is going to open the bottle of soda , all the entrapped carbon dioxide will come rushing out.
Yep, It's going to be a bubble but the wrong way. Those that haven't hedged against the devaluation of fiat will swap their useless paper for tangible things like food, shelter, fuel and wish they could have PMs during this turmoil.
That's my monkey opinion.
With the current ammount of purchasing power lost to the US Dollar, I doubt we will ever see $10/oz. AG ever again. Now if we adjust it for inflation, then under $20/oz. silver isn't out of the question.
I'm with VisuTrac, I'd buy on the way back down also.
If i were a sage of PM I'd say.
33-38 between now and election
35-42 between election and inauguration
40 - 45 2013 if romney 40-55 if obama.
Odds of it being below 30 for more than a week. less than 10%
But I'm not a sage.
I would love to see those metrics. I really hope everyone is diversifying with their investments because precious metals would be a somewaht risky business if its the only thing that you are into. I like silver and gold if QE3 doesn't stop. BUT I like Bond Indicies more than PM. People think that the low interest rates are driving down earnings in bonds but the government buying them has caused scarcity and kept returns solid. Stay diverse, stay in the markets, just DON'T go for that homerun ball right now. Bet across an index rather than trying to pick one stock/commodity.
Could not agree more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love commodities!
Firewood,Beans, Rice, live hogs, rabbits, chickens, maters, taters, bullets and a wee bit of PMs to round it out.
Stock market? Let's see, I remember getting hammered in index funds in the 90s and a couple of times in 00s, I've no clue how I'm doing right now as I've set it to rebalance based on original percentages quarterly. but I'm probably still loosing at least my company match.
I'll stick with the commodities thank ye very much.
Metric , Nope this is a WAG.
I hope it goes the other way so i can buy more.
As for the general market. It's been major suckor since the mid 90's.
I know lots of people that lost their retirement nest eggs because 'The Market is only going to go up!!!' and their risk weighting was way too high. But hell, the CFA's were telling us to push for the returns so we can retire in good shape.
Well, those that didn't consider that the CFP / CFA's got higher commissions based on which funds they got you in basically are going to be working into their golden years. Right up until about 1 month before they drop dead. The are mortgaged to the hilt, upside down on the house, their car, and the credit cards are maxed. Oh and what money they have in their 401k half has been taken out as a loan.
Yep, not a good time for someone to become a financial planner unless they can work miracles with negative savings and inflation that is out stripping wage increases. Those doing well are either in the top wage earners or those that got off the merry-go-round years ago. The rest of us are just trying to survive.
My money is in NYL Anuities that pay only 3%.... However that 3% comes in every month, just like clockwork... Nothing fancy in the 401K either, Stable Long Term Bond Funds. While others were making, and then losing their respective "Shirts" I didn't lose a nickel, and still made some small amount. My father, the Banker, taught his children well, "Never speculate with your future, because if you lose, you can never make it up." Good sound advise.....
Yeah.....when silver went from 5 bucks to 6 bucks, I heard the bubble talk start. IF it hits 100 next year ( it won't ) I'd be worried about it crashing back to 50 ( like it did when it got near 50 this time, and fell back in the mid 20's ).
But in 5-7 years ? I think 100 is an easy goal....and 200-300 is not out of reach......assuming there is still a "dollar" around to measure it in.
Interesting article here on Govt Bonds:
T-Bonds: A Lighted Stick of Dynamite
I see variety as a good thing. It is still viable to catch ETFs while silver is still on its way up. But I don't think trust in ETF delivery is going to last.
I'm just not sure if ETF aren't oversold and way under backed with physical. Kind of like selling the title to the brooklyn bridge. If it's not in my hand, I'm not paying for any PM backed by a promise to deliver at a future time. I'll trade FRNs straight up upon delivery. Just my paradigm ( or 2 pre-1965 dimes)
40 billion / month .
Bankers playing the books ?
I'm investing all in the stock wall street ,so I become a 1%.
I can't eat it , but Fiat also has a bad taste .Bloated or sink ?
What? Bonds? you mean the things they promise to give you returns on in the very same currency we're hedging against? The laws of mathematics are at play here. There is no safe fiat bet.. :scary:
It depends on what you are going for. Are you trying to hedge against the currency or RISK in general?
The currency IS the risk. I'm placing my bets on sound money, not currency.
I would actually agree with you about its long-term viability. Even I have long sold what shares I had. But that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities for profit, if that is your thing.
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