Special Report: A New Phase of the War

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by melbo, Aug 8, 2006.


  1. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    SPECIAL REPORT
    08.08.2006


    Special Report: A New Phase of the War
    We have not written publicly available alerts on the Israel-Hezbollah
    conflict for several days, simply because there has been nothing to report. This is
    not to say that nothing was happening; brutal fighting was going on, rockets
    were being fired and airstrikes were being carried out. However, the basic
    pattern of the war appeared to be fixed, with Israeli troops fighting
    well-entrenched Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon, and with the results of those battles
    uncertain. The diplomatic process was lurching along without any clear
    direction.

    We are now beginning to detect some changes on the Israeli side. At its
    meeting Aug. 7, the Israeli Cabinet appeared to have given up on a diplomatic
    solution -- if it ever actually believed diplomacy would work -- and made it clear
    that Israeli forces were going to be given a much freer hand in Lebanon.
    Today, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz announced that Deputy Chief of
    Staff Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky was to become Halutz's representative at
    Northern Command -- which owns the Lebanese operation -- for the duration of the war.

    There are political ramifications for this in Israel Defense Forces, but what
    is essentially being done is that Kaplinsky, an army officer who commanded
    the elite Golani Brigade, has been put in charge of the Lebanese operation.
    Halutz, an air force officer who had been criticized for waging an extended air
    campaign that did not shut down rocket attacks, is ceding authority over the
    war. Obviously, this is also a criticism of Northern Command's performance over
    the past weeks -- but the important message, following recent Israeli Cabinet
    decisions, is that the Israelis are going to unleash their ground forces.

    What this means is unclear. It might mean that one or more additional
    divisions will be thrown into the southern Lebanese campaign, trying to force a
    decision. It might mean that the attack into the Bekaa Valley that we have
    discussed is in the works. It could also mean that Israel might move toward Beirut.
    What seems to be happening, however, is that the Israelis are moving beyond the
    current phase of the war.

    As we have said, Hezbollah has relatively few options. In the south, the
    militants are committed to a static defense that they seem to be executing well.
    In the Bekaa Valley, they might opt to resist or to draw the Israelis in and
    then try to impose an insurgency on them. The same in the southern Beirut area.
    They might also decide to try and launch some of the longer-range rockets they
    claim to have, assuming the Israeli air force hasn't taken them out.

    Much is unclear. However, this is intended to alert you that the Israelis are
    vigorously signaling a shift in their war fighting strategy. This may be
    intended to induce a new round of diplomacy, but we rather doubt it. Israeli Prime
    Minister Ehud Olmert has run out of room on the strategy he was following. A
    new one is likely.
    Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.</pre>
     
  2. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    [​IMG]
     
  5. ghrit

    ghrit Old, mean, and nasty Administrator Founding Member

    Can't help wondering why the US flag is flying upside down. A distress signal, or an insult?foosed
     
  6. B540glenn

    B540glenn Should Be Working Founding Member

    It's probably a Reuter's photo. That means it's doctored. :eek:
     
  7. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    all the views and ghirt your the only one who noticed it......wow:(
     
  8. ghrit

    ghrit Old, mean, and nasty Administrator Founding Member

    Digging deeply and rather uncertainly into long unremembered memories, back in the days of wooden ships and iron men, I think ships in distress were authorized to hoist the colors upside down as a distress signal. This predates neat things like radio -- :rolleyes:
     
  9. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    yup upside down means come help!
     
  10. monkeyman

    monkeyman Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Thats still a recognized distress signal.
     
  11. E.L.

    E.L. Moderator of Lead Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    I noticed it too, I was just waiting for the punchline before I posted. Did you find out the origin and meaning, or was it just a mistake?
     
  12. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    No its very real.
     
  13. poacher

    poacher Monkey+++ Founding Member

    A couple of things just don't add up for me in the U.S. distress photo. First if you look at the white flag beside the US one you can make out ???? hotel. So wherever it is it's a hotel. Secondly although the flag poles look like they are tall flag poles and we are seeing the tops there is a red and white cross arm underneath the flags. It just looks out of place. Lastly while this is obviously a parking garage why is the top and the road look dry but the middle area/ floor looks like it just go hosed down? Just alot of questions that I don't have the answer for but maybe we can put it together.
    Take care Be safe Poacher.
     
  14. ghrit

    ghrit Old, mean, and nasty Administrator Founding Member

    The red and white crossarm is (I think) a gate on the parking floor, not the poles. And, I've seen enough discolored and poor quality concrete that I can easily believe wet is not part of the equation. That said, I'll defer to better eyes.foosed
     
  15. poacher

    poacher Monkey+++ Founding Member

    Ghrit,
    I'll go with the discolored concrete.I see that crap every day. The crossarm just looks,, well odd at the angle it's at the location etc. Oh for a full photo of this. So Quig where did ya get the photos? are there more that show the same area? maybe we can piece this puzzel together yet.
    Take care Be safe, Poacher.
     
  16. Quigley_Sharps

    Quigley_Sharps The Badministrator Administrator Founding Member

    its a swing out gate swing from the right to left in the pic
     
  17. BRONZ

    BRONZ Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    As soon as a round pops by that security guards head he is going to fall off the edge.

    Dumb F*****r
     
  18. E.L.

    E.L. Moderator of Lead Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Here is the code: http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode04/usc_sec_04_00000008----000-.html

    (a) The flag should never be displayed with the union down, except as a signal of dire distress in instances of extreme danger to life or property.

    I assume it is a hotel in Israel, maybe in Haifa? It really doesn't look that appropriate, first off if there was immediate danger wouldn't the swinging gate be pulled out as an obstacle? I would also expect to see more security, unless of course they were taking cover from rocket attack.
     
  19. ghrit

    ghrit Old, mean, and nasty Administrator Founding Member

    And why, pray tell, is it that the Israelis get to use the US flag for distress? Very strange.foosed
     
  20. E.L.

    E.L. Moderator of Lead Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    I think it is an American hotel in Israel. The flag looks familiar, but I can't place which hotel it is. I used to travel a lot, and spent the better part of about four years in hotels and this one looks really familiar.
     
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