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Flu Spike in Fatal H5N1 Indonesian Cases Raises Concerns

Discussion in 'Survival Medicine' started by eeyore, Mar 4, 2009.

  1. eeyore

    eeyore Monkey++

    Spike in Fatal H5N1 Indonesian Cases Raises Concerns
    Recombinomics Commentary 14:37
    March 3, 2009

    Krisnamurthi had little details about the latest deaths, saying only that two were siblings from the city of Bogor and the others were women from Bekasi and Surabaya.

    Republika also reported on Tuesday that two more deaths from the disease occurred at the weekend near the capital Jakarta -- a 5-year-old girl from Depok, and an 8-year-old boy from Bekasi.

    The above comments from wire reports describe 4 more confirmed H5N1 fatal cases near Jakarta and describe 2 more recent suspect fatal cases in the same general area. However, additional local reports describe a fatal case in Tangerang, which was said to have been lab confirmed, suggesting that there are at least 7 fatal H5N1 infections in the areas surrounding Jakarta, which are in addition to the two fatalities reported for Tangerang and Bekasi last month.

    Details on these cases are somewhat lacking because of the news blackout that delays reporting. WHO generally follows with situation updates, but these updates come after Indonesian announcements and trail disease onset dates by weeks or months.

    The familial cluster in Bogor was described in local media reports and the two sisters died in late January. In addition, the patient in Surabaya also died in January, but paramedics linked to the hospital in Surabaya were reported as hospitalized in critical condition, raising concerns that the H5N1 confirmed fatal case directly or indirectly infected the paramedics (see updated map).

    The recent seven confirmed or suspect fatalities follow the news blackout last year, which followed a series of additional clusters. The announcement of the blackout was accompanied by claims that the lower number of confirmed cases was due to more rapid treatment. However, the rapid treatment would not lower the number of infections, unless there was significant human to human transmission. Collection of samples after the start of treat may low the number of lab confirmed cases because of a lower viral titer linked to treatment. Rapid treatment could lead to a lowered cases fatality rate, but there is little evidence in the confirmed cases. Historically the case fatality rate for human H5N1 in Indonesia is approximately 80%. However, the rate for confirmed cases reported this year is 100% for the six cases, all of which were on Java. Indeed, it has been over a year since a recovered H5N1 case was reported on Java. Since that cluster in February of 2008, all 10 reported cases last year were fatal. Thus, for Java the case fatality rate has been at 100% for all 16 of the most recent reported H5N1 cases.

    This high case fatality rate strongly suggests that milder cases are not report, either because they test negative because of titers lowered by treatment, or they are not tested at all because they are misdiagnosed or self medicated at home, which has been described for many suspect cases. Indeed, many of the fatal cases die within hours of being transferred to an infectious disease hospital after local treatment at home, clinics, or smaller local hospitals and fatally infected family members linked to lab confirmed cases have been misdiagnosed as having lung inflammation, dengue fever, or typhus. The recent Tangerang case was diagnosed as dengue fever, and the recent Bogor case was diagnosed as having dengue fever and typhus prior to lung x-rays and reports of contact with dead or dying poultry, which then led to the H5N1 diagnosis.

    The spike in H5N1 cases in the Jakarta area increases concerns that the number of H5N1 in Indonesia in general and the Jakarta area in particular, are markedly higher that the recently announced confirmed cases.

  2. Minuteman

    Minuteman Chaplain Moderator Founding Member

    A couple of recent reports on H5N1. The last one is disturbing.

    Bird flu remains a threat to humans, U.N. says

    BEIJING — A handful of new human fatalities from bird flu underscore that the H5N1 virus has become entrenched in some countries, such as China, and that it still could mutate and flare into a global pandemic, U.N. officials said Wednesday.

    China has reported five deaths from eight cases of bird flu so far this year.

    U.N. advisers said that the victims had come into contact with infected poultry in scattered areas of China, and that the virus still wasn't contagious among humans. They cautioned against dismissing the H5N1 virus as a threat to humanity, however.

    "We really shouldn't be complacent," said Vincent Martin, a senior technical adviser on avian influenza in China for the Food and Agriculture Organization, a U.N. group based in Rome.

    "If it happens, it will be really scary for everybody. The attention has been sort of waning during the years. . . . Infection is still going on. Today, we are seeing people dying of the disease."

    The deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza began to infect humans in late 2003 and has spread to 15 countries, killing 254 of the 407 people who've contracted it.

    Hans Troedsson, the chief representative of the World Health Organization in China, said the WHO hadn't changed its risk assessment of bird flu in China after the recent deaths, adding that the virus often spreads more easily in the winter months.

    He said the prevalence of fowl in millions of backyards in rural China made eradicating the H5N1 virus difficult.

    "The virus is well-entrenched and circulating in the environment," Troedsson said.

    The officials, speaking at a forum for foreign correspondents, said "hot spots of infection" for H5N1 virus occurred in China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Egypt, where wild birds — largely shore and aquatic birds — carried the virus, sometimes infecting poultry.

    Curiously, the human infections in China this year didn't follow a reported poultry outbreak, and Martin urged Beijing to enhance surveillance to ensure that outbreaks don't go unreported.

    Public health experts fret that an influenza A virus, perhaps H5N1, could mutate or re-assort itself genetically to allow human-to-human transmission, becoming a global contagion that could threaten tens of millions of lives. Such contagions occur in cycles.

    "It's always at certain intervals, and it's overdue," Troedsson said, adding that the last major flu outbreak occurred four decades ago and was known as the Hong Kong flu.

    He said that a worst-case scenario for a flu outbreak would shut down airports worldwide, strain hospitals, severely disrupt food and water supplies, and lead to shortages of anti-viral medications. A best-case scenario might cause only 100,000 deaths, he added.

    "We don't know which virus strain is going to do it," Troedsson said. "What's important for us is that governments continue to do their preparedness planning."


    Monday, March 02, 2009


    by Michael C. Ruppert

    REALLY BAD NEWS -- There is one story that really stuck out today. It seems that someone at Baxter Pharmaceuticals "accidentally" mixed H5N1 bird flu with a human virus into one vaccine and sent it off to Eastern Europe where it was injected into humans. For those who have been with me a long time you know what kind of investigative journalism we did on biowarfare and how it would be used to reduce population eventually. You know how well we documented the relentless quest for gene-specific bioweapons. Well, the only thing that was saving us from H5N1 bird flu was that it was generally considered not transmittable to humans. (Of course we known that it already has been on a small scale.) But here's a pharmaceutical company that we have written about at FTW (I think also in Rubicon) that's accomplished what nature couldn't. This story has zero credibility for how the screw up occurred because even the most basic lab protocols would prevent it. Combine DNA from H5N1 with a human viral DNA, inject into a human, and then watch the perfect mutation take place... The mother of all superbugs. I don't have time to rewrite what I have already written. In fact none of us have time to slow down for those who don't get it or who slow us down. (Combat veterans know this attitude very well.) Go to Rubicon and go to FTW and search for biowarfare or Baxter.

    For about seven years now I have warned that an event like this would confirm that the die-off was planned... and underway. This sounds like a starting bell. Combine what we know about events in eastern Europe and this makes very sick sense. I don't think the elites will be able to control this anymore than they can fully control the collapse; or than Warren Buffet could control getting his clock cleaned... But then again, Buffet may be screaming louder than he's actually hurt.



  3. eeyore

    eeyore Monkey++

    Abolutely amazing how stupid some people can be. Thanks for the article
  4. Tracy

    Tracy Insatiably Curious Moderator Founding Member

    Carnage indeed.[angelsad]
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