Take an hour....interesting Kyle Bass Speech

Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by Clyde, Dec 31, 2012.

  1. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    VisuTrac likes this.
  2. VisuTrac

    VisuTrac Ваша мать носит военные ботинки Site Supporter+++

    Ok, now my brain hurts.
    I think in need to start drinking, as it is not IF but When.
    At least we should be able to recognize when a bit sooner than the rest.
  3. CATO

    CATO Monkey+++

    Embedded video disabled by request. Did anyone save/download this video.
  4. VisuTrac

    VisuTrac Ваша мать носит военные ботинки Site Supporter+++

    nope, not same vid.
    I viewed it on youtube.
    CATO likes this.
  5. Harbin

    Harbin Monkey+

    Watched that all the way through, wow was it an eye opener. I've heard many times Japan is in a bad spot, but had no idea they were so far in the hole. Sounds like some real desperate times over there. The comments at the end about China were extremely alarming as well.
  6. VisuTrac

    VisuTrac Ваша мать носит военные ботинки Site Supporter+++

    Yep, Japan has a higher debt to GDP ratio than Greece. Like about 60% more (percentage wise)
  7. CATO

    CATO Monkey+++

    All of that is bad news for those oriental countries, sure . . . but, the big thing I pulled away was the part about (paraphrased) OUR future: WAR (what is it good for?)

  8. Harbin

    Harbin Monkey+

    I took that away as well. My guess is he thinks that's how it will end when everyone you owe money to realizes you can't pay. Anyone interpret this another way?

    Sent from my SPH-D710 using Tapatalk 2
  9. CATO

    CATO Monkey+++

    I'm thinking civil unrest/war first (because that's what's happened everywhere else), then China comes to the aid of our govt. (or what's left of it after the patriots go AWOL), then China tries to occupy/be the puppet-master.

    Hold on, let me call Tom Clancy . . . . . . he hung up on me again.
  10. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    "You all know where this ends, right?....It ends in war!"

    Yup. Global government spending is so bad, that our current deficit spending (of all nations) is on par with war spending. Therefore, we are in uncharted waters from the global financial markets.

    Also thought the comment n Keynes was interesting, since Keynes did not contemplate 0% interest rates.
  11. CATO

    CATO Monkey+++

    As a follow-up on Bass's thoughts on Japan:

    My Blog

    On the heels of last week’s Fed propaganda and the increasing desperation on the part of central planners, today Michael Pento has written exclusively for King World News to warn readers about what is going to cause oceans of paper money to panic into gold, silver and other hard assets. Here is Pento’s piece: “It is an unfortunate truth that Keynesian counterfeiters with their Kamikaze monetary and fiscal policies have taken over the developed world. Politicians and central banks in the United States and Europe have decided to cement, firmly in place, their addictions to debt, inflation, and artificially produced low interest rates.”

    Michael Pento continues:

    “But Japan has now leapfrogged into the lead of those nations that believe prosperity can be brought about by loading up on government debt and increasing the number of zeros being printed by their central bank. Shinzo Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party swept into power in mid-December by promising to boost inflation and destroy the value of the Yen.

    The new Prime Minister is trying to usurp the independence of the Band of Japan (BOJ) by dictating that the central bank provide an inflation target of at least 2%, and also force them to expand their government bond-buying program. The reason for this is clear; Japan’s debt has ballooned to over $12 trillion, and is now 237% of their GDP....

    “So, what’s a government and central bank to do? The answer, of course, is enacting yet another new fiscal stimulus package that will be monetized by the BOJ. Japan’s central bank has already been buying corporate and government bonds in the scores of trillions of Yen.

    Then, its board met on December 20th and decided to expand its program for the third time in four months. This additional 10 trillion yen brings the current total of BOJ debt monetization to 101 trillion yen! Of course, to “help” push things along on the spending side, the government is considering another 10 trillion yen stimulus program.

    The government believes their economic troubles emanate from stable prices and a currency that is too strong. Therefore, an all-out effort is underway to crumble the currency and boost inflation. This would be great news for the Japanese economy if it all hadn’t been tried before and proven to fail miserably. In fact, the yen has already lost 11% of its value in the past twelve months and is at its lowest level against the dollar since August of 2010.

    But that hasn’t helped boost exports or manufacturing at all. Industrial production dropped 1.7% in November, which was the worst reading since the earthquake in March of 2011. That’s because domestic prices rise in commensurate fashion with the decline of the currency. Hence, there is no benefit to manufacturing and exports due to a drop in the value of a money.

    Japan has adopted the Keynesian mantra of, “The economy suffers from a lack of demand and government can and must supplant the private sector.” However, the problem is that demand must be based on the prior production of goods and services, which allows an individual, corporation or government the ability to use their production for consumption. It cannot be generated artificially by printing money beforehand. If genuine growth and prosperity could come from government-induced demand, Cuba would be a global economic giant.

    When a government tries to create demand by disseminating money that is printed by a central bank; all you get is a falling currency, faltering GDP, soaring debt levels and inflation—and eventually rising interest rates as well. Japan illustrates this point perfectly. Indeed, Japanese Government Bond yields have increased sharply in the last month in response to Mr. Abe’s love affair with inflation. That could to disaster in short order as debt service payments soar.

    As stated before, one consequence of destroying your currency is to make those things priced in Yen rise in price. That also applies to equities. The Nikkei Dow closed up 23% on the year and has continued its increase so far in 2013. That’s great for those fortunate to own hard assets, but pernicious for those in the middle class that must spend a greater portion of their income on food and energy. The result is a faltering middle class and an economy that is plagued by intractable debt and an unstable currency.

    The failure of Japan to allow bankrupt institutions to fail, to let asset prices fall, to balance their budget and to embrace a strengthening yen, has helped turn their lost decade into the lost quarter century. And it is now etched in stone that the entire nation, as well as Europe and the United States, are all facing a currency and bond market crisis that is not too far in the future.

    What this will mean is, if Japan suffers a sovereign debt crisis, they will no longer be able to hold in abeyance the sovereign debt crisis that will then hit the US. The key point for investors here is that as the world loses faith in the developed world’s sovereign debt and the currencies that back it, there will be a massive move into gold and silver. That is when you will see the oceans of paper money around the world really panic into hard assets.”

    To learn more about Michael Pento’s financial management services CLICK HERE.
  12. CATO

    CATO Monkey+++

    Top Economic Advisers Forecast War and Unrest - Washington's Blog

    Top Economic Advisers Forecast War and Unrest

    Posted on February 11, 2013 by WashingtonsBlog
    Kyle Bass, Larry Edelson, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Jim Rickards Warn or War

    We’re already at war in numerous countries all over the world.
    But top economic advisers warn that economic factors could lead to a new world war.
    Kyle Bass writes:
    Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.
    Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013″, which states:
    Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war.
    I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.
    However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge in 2013.​
    Former Goldman Sachs technical analyst Charles Nenner – who has made some big accurate calls, and counts major hedge funds, banks, brokerage houses, and high net worth individuals as clients – says there will be “a major war starting at the end of 2012 to 2013”, which will drive the Dow to 5,000.
    Veteran investor adviser James Dines forecast a war is epochal as World Wars I and II, starting in the Middle East.
    Nouriel Roubini has warned of war with Iran. And when Roubini was asked:
    Where does this all lead us? The risk in your view is of another Great Depression. But even respectable European politicians are talking not just an economic depression but possibly even worse consequences over the next decade or so. Bearing European history in mind, where does this take us?​
    He responded:
    In the 1930s, because we made a major policy mistake, we went through financial instability, defaults, currency devaluations, printing money, capital controls, trade wars, populism, a bunch of radical, populist, aggressive regimes coming to power from Germany to Italy to Spain to Japan, and then we ended up with World War II.
    Now I’m not predicting World War III but seriously, if there was a global financial crisis after the first one, then we go into depression: the political and social instability in Europe and other advanced economies is going to become extremely severe. And that’s something we have to worry about.​
    Billionaire investor Jim Rogers notes:
    A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers.
    “Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we’re in World War II or World War whatever.”​
    Marc Faber says that the American government will start new wars in response to the economic crisis:
    We’re in the middle of a global currency war – i.e. a situation where nations all compete to devalue their currencies the most in order to boost exports. And Brazilian president-elect Rousseff said in 2010:
    The last time there was a series of competitive devaluations … it ended in world war two.​
    Jim Rickards agrees:
    Currency wars lead to trade wars, which often lead to hot wars. In 2009, Rickards participated in the Pentagon’s first-ever “financial” war games. While expressing confidence in America’s ability to defeat any other nation-state in battle, Rickards says the U.S. could get dragged into “asymmetric warfare,” if currency wars lead to rising inflation and global economic uncertainty.​
    As does Jim Rogers:
    Trade wars always lead to wars.​
    And given that many influential economists wrongly believe that war is good for the economy … many are overtly or quietly pushing for war.
    Moreover, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said that the Iraq war was really about oil , and former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill says that Bush planned the Iraq war before 9/11. And see this and this. If that war was for petroleum, other oil-rich countries might be invaded as well.
    And the American policy of using the military to contain China’s growing economic influence – and of considering economic rivalry to be a basis for war – are creating a tinderbox.
    Finally, multi-billionaire investor Hugo Salinas Price says:
    What happened to [Libya's] Mr. Gaddafi, many speculate the real reason he was ousted was that he was planning an all-African currency for conducting trade. The same thing happened to him that happened to Saddam because the US doesn’t want any solid competing currency out there vs the dollar. You know Gaddafi was talking about a gold dinar.​
    Indeed, senior CNBC editor John Carney noted:
    Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power? It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era.
    Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal thinks the central banking initiative reveals that foreign powers may have a strong influence over the rebels.
    This suggests we have a bit more than a ragtag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences. “I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising,” Wenzel writes.​
    Indeed, some say that recent wars have really been about bringing all countries into the fold of Western central banking.
    Many Warn of Unrest

    Numerous economic organizations and economists also warn of crash-induced unrest, including:
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