The coming war with Iran

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by TnAndy, May 16, 2019.


Tags:
  1. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Yeah, Iran is not a problem but what is the problem(s) is what this could this become and what do we do after we roll over the Iranians, rebuild another raghead country? I truly doubt the Chinese or even the Russians would get involved but you can bet the Russians will feed weapons and training to Iran if the conflict last long enough.

    @DKR " I doubt most Americans would have backed the Gulf War II had they know it would turn into a 20 year slog...."
    This American sure wouldn't have, that is damn sure. And, I damn sure do not want to rebuild another country or be responsible for its security or whatever other crap they come up with. We truly need to go the Roman route when it comes to these little conflicts and that is kill everyone and anyone that blinks their eyes at us, go in fast and hard and get the hell out. This is exactly what the Russians did to Georgia, ruin them and put the fear of Russia into them which still exists today.
     
    techsar, oldman11 and Ura-Ki like this.
  2. BenP

    BenP Monkey++ Site Supporter+

    I worry we are backing China in a corner similar to what we did to Japan. Don't get me wrong, I am 100% behind what we are doing and I think we should have done it long ago but they are a prideful people and I worry they will attempt to retaliate in a spectacular fashion.

    The question I keep asking myself is "Did Japan actually expect to win a war against us?" Would China try something similar?
     
  3. Ura-Ki

    Ura-Ki Grudge Monkey

    Japan ( Like Germany) were lulled into a false belief of imminent success because of earlier successes pre and during WW1, and flatly believed they could strike a single crushing blow against any Navy, and in the case of Japan, were very close to achieving that!
    Biggest mistake was NOT pressing their advantages after Pearl when the U.S Navy was at its weakest and most vulnerable especially after failing to destroy the carriers! Japan failed to comprehend what a real fight would look like and was not prepared to wage a prolonged war against a extremely powerful Navy!
    Japan ( like Germany) believed in a small, fast moving, hard hitting fleet that could punch far above it's weight and could gain a tactical advantage in a short amount of time! Biggest mistakes, particularly with Japan was NOT understanding, and not using At Sea Replenishment, which really exacerbated their issues with supplying a fleet, so they were forced to withdraw from the fighting fairly early into it, loosing any gains they might have and been able to exploit! Further compounding their failures was not understanding the use of Radar, and the advantages it could have had! Ultimately, Japan was forced to fight the U.S. Navy which had every advantage, and once the fight was joined, Japan was destined to loose, it simply became a matter of time, and the amount of ships the U.S. Could sink and Japan couldn't replace. Germany had a slightly different concept, but they ultimately failed as well!
    As far as China goes, For right now, NO, they could not square off against the U.S and have any reasonable expectations of winning, 4 years from now, that story changes! Right now, China has a growing fleet of Frigets and Destroyers, while powerful, not even close to parity with the U.S Navy in terms of quality, firepower, range, and staying power! Instead they are attempting to rely on untested long range, high speed anti ship missiles, which despite the threat those could be, they don't have enough of them, cannot carry more then a few per ship, and once they are fired, they become very vulnerable to return fire!
    China ( Like Japan in WW2, and Most all Naval powers today, Including Russia) does NOT have At Sea Replenishment capabilities, making them a short range Navy, I.E. Home Waters Navy Only! China also lacks the abilities to Move large numbers of troupes, making any fight largely moot, they cannot cross the seas to take and hold ground!
    To compound the issues both China and Russia face, is the U.S. Air. Force, which has and maintains global striking power, effectively quarterbacking any U.S. Naval actions, and boosting the striking power beyond what ether could ever hope to achieve.
    In short, NO, China and Russia combined couldn't hold the U.S in harm! Still within Close waters, both are extremely dangerous, but strategically, neither could stand for long against the combined strength of the U.S. Armed Forces!
     
    BenP, Oddcaliber, SB21 and 2 others like this.
  4. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    @BenP "The question I keep asking myself is "Did Japan actually expect to win a war against us?" Would China try something similar?"

    It raining outside so I actually get a day of rest today so to answer your question...the Japanese actually thought after they destroyed our Pacific Naval Fleet that we would sue for peace but...they didn't catch the carriers so the Fleet still existed, no knockout blow and, in my opinion and many others, Roosevelt wanted a war because it would finally do what everyone had been trying to do since 1929 - pull us out of the Depression. Also, this would put us on war footing which would be one step closer to direct assistance against Hitler which FDR and Churchill saw as the real threat (Why they thought this is another question I won't try to answer here).

    But we are talking apples and oranges when comparing Japan's march to empire and the current Chinese quest to become a global power.

    First, Japan was dependent on outside oil production and the majority or it, believe it or not, came from the good old USA, quote from American Foreign Relations website: "The United States dominated world oil production in the first half of the twentieth century. U.S. fields accounted for slightly more than 70 percent of world oil production in 1925, around 63 percent in 1941, and over 50 percent in 1950."

    Another quote from Washington Post article , "The Japanese military machine was almost entirely dependent upon imported oil -- and that meant the United States, which supplied about 80 percent of Japan's supplies in those days. (Much of the rest came from the Dutch East Indies -- now Indonesia.)"

    So, Oil was King for without it, no military machine runs, it grinds to a halt - just like the German war machine. It actually started long ago when Japan was furious they were not included in the WW1 Versailles Treaty and given Shantung which they captured with significant casualties and IIRC is also home of Confucius. I think President Wilson finally rolled over and gave in but...the Japanese were deeply insulted. Now, jump forward a bit and when they marched into China and Indochina and etc. the USA embargoed steel, aircraft gasoline, aircraft, etc... and later in July of 1941 froze their stateside assets and embargoed oil then the Dutch and Brits did it also so... Frankly, this truly was effective as the Japanese had something like only18-24 months left of oil supplies left … so their choice was to roll over and play nice or clobber the Yankee Dogs in Hawaii taking out the Pacific Fleet (before they ran out of oil) to free them up to conquer oil rich countries, specifically the oil fields of the Indies. FDR knew an oil embargo meant war...this is a certainty.

    The Chinese really have achieved most their goals via economics, good old economical power - in many ways, just like America but improved. Yes, they do rely on oil from outside sources but those outside sources is not America. And, if America does interrupt its oil flow by war with Iran there are other sources of oil in the world plus you can be certain the USA will not move against Iran before ascertaining if China or Russia will side with them. Hell, I would go so far to say that the USA would sell oil to China in order to get them a green light for war with Iran. It's plain old diplomacy, all's fair...

    Anyway...different time period, different scenario, different goals...however I have no friggin idea what the American goals are if we attack Iran. We produce more than enough oil for ourselves so I do not see it as our problem. Are we the world police? Have we been attacked? No and no, so...


    Oil and world power - Oil
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...d73-817d-baf67d3a9db8/?utm_term=.4da8731f3c53
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
    BenP, Oddcaliber, HK_User and 2 others like this.
  5. Gator 45/70

    Gator 45/70 Monkey+++

    Redbone?
     
    oldman11 and Ura-Ki like this.
  6. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

    *scratches head* y'all believe this? *shaking head* the video is from 2010 and everything on Iran is from mainstream media in 2017 ..... im kind of speechless that you all think this is current news and that its relevant to today.... not to insult any one but you all are smarter than this. Check your sources.
     
    Zimmy, Merkun, Gator 45/70 and 2 others like this.
  7. HK_User

    HK_User A Productive Monkey is a Happy Monkey

    But I was serious!
    Hillery and Obummer will load up and send 6.7 Billion $ of Uncle Sam's Reserve from the collection they took from Iran and a Rusty Old TROJAN Diesel Submarine loaded with some Spec Operators and buy off the Irannies.
    SpecOps will emerge from the Sub and send the Muzzie's heads of state to their rewards of bliss.
    The Muzzies will discover the Virgins they expected are only Drag Queens and will cut their own throats.
    Problem solved.

    It's a fine clear day here in Texas.
    Lock and Load.
     
  8. OldDude49

    OldDude49 Just n old guy

    money... think Venezuela?

    will people report you for having firearms or any other "illegal" things if they are promised food?

    they just promised a tremendous amount of money for infrastructure...

    that we are supposedly already taxed for... go figure...

    and they will continue to spend until they collapse the dollar... may already be that way... fed res is keepin us in the dark...

    they have no worries... they're in charge and they already have lots of money...

    thank about what Soros has done in other countries over and over...
     
    Oddcaliber and Gator 45/70 like this.
  9. Tempstar

    Tempstar Old and crochety Site Supporter+

    The US broke Venezuela over the last few years, and has tried with Iran for the last 40. I worked with a fellow from Tehran for several years back in the '90s. He was Christian and left for that reason. He didn't mind sharing about life there, which sucked thanks to the United States and it's various embargoes. Any war with Iran would be over in hours and they know it. They have no technology other than outdated tech from Russia and China. Iran is yet another piece on the global chessboard, being played by several countries. They feel they must posture like N. Korea to save face, and every time they do someone always thinks a war is coming.
    Having been fortunate enough through life to make many international friends, and even more with Ham radio, I have learned that the US is a bully. The common thread I have seen from the people I have known from other places is that they are much the same as us: They really just want to be left alone to go about life, make a decent living and have a little something to pass on to their children. Just like us. Many of them hate our government but love the American people and our lifestyle. I have yet to meet anyone who hated me because I was American except for a gent from Germany who thought we were all assholes for some reason.
    The moral of my long winded diatribe? People are pretty much the same everywhere. If I were elected President, I would shut down the IRS and institute a flat tax, then I would do my best to end the bullying by the US around the world. Bring home the troops and cut the handouts to countries like Israel. I hope I could get it all done in the two weeks I would have before my assassination.
     
  10. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    The Constitution only recognizes two types of taxes....direct taxes, which must be paid by the States based on their population, or indirect taxes, which are tariffs, excise taxes on goods, fees, etc.....basically a sales tax.

    Which of the two would your flat tax fall under ?
     
    oldman11 and Gator 45/70 like this.
  11. Merkun

    Merkun furious dreamer

    It gets worse, Andy. Proponents of the flat tax sorta intend that it will render all other taxes unnecessary. How the states will recognize that extreme position is out of my area entirely. But, for one thing, I've yet to meet a politician that would drop his string on the money bag for altruistic purposes. Also it will suddenly become obvious how much of OUR income is sucked up by the various taxes that currently exist.
     
  12. Illini Warrior

    Illini Warrior Monkey+++


    that "bullying" for some residents of various countries is God Sent for their neighbors >>>> just like here in the US there are people that don't understand - won't listen - and never will ...

    I spent alot of time in the old West Germany - most Germans would bitch about the US & British NATO bases at one time or other - but deep down knew that the military commitment was the only reason the commies were still on their side of the fence ....
    same same today with the Japanese - Balkans - Afghanistan - Iraq - across Africa - Philippines and even in South America - either troops or training units aren't there "bullying" anyone - pull the units and the people in the know will start to bitch about betrayal and lacking commitment ...

    if these people that are bitching about the US being a bully - hope they never find out what a real one is - like Putin invading half of the Ukraine or sending shock troops to Venezuela to back up a dictator - or arming Middle East terrorists and Iran to attack & conquer >>> just wait until China begins to roll down the Pacific Rim and making more slaves like they have now .....
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2019
  13. Tempstar

    Tempstar Old and crochety Site Supporter+

    My flat tax would be as a sales tax at 20%, 7% to states and 13% to the Fed on every purchase except non-prepared food, which would have no tax.
     
  14. oldman11

    oldman11 Monkey+++

    That flat tax would raise the cost of a $40,000.00 truck $8000.00 to $48,000.00. Twenty percent added would turn the people who pay no taxes now into full fledged taxpayers,which would be good for our country. Do you think high rolling snowflakes would go for that ? A big percentage of people pay no income tax now. My first cousin’s son who is fifty going on sixty has never worked a job in his life gets big bucks back from the gov every year somehow. We have let our country get in very bad shape. I would have more money with a flat tax myself.
    [flag] MAGA. [flag]
     
  15. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

  16. Zimmy

    Zimmy Wait, I'm not ready!

    I figure if we wanted Iran handicapped we would have let ISIS attack them from Iraq. Two enemies fighting each other sounds good.

    I didn't serve in Iraq so I have to say that's my perspective not having boots on the ground, Brothers.
     
    Gator 45/70 and HK_User like this.
  17. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    Well, looks like we've got our Gulf of Tonkin moment this morning:
    2 Tankers Damaged After Torpedo Attack Near Strait Of Hormuz; Oil Soars
    2 Tankers Damaged After Torpedo Attack Near Strait Of Hormuz; Oil Soars

    "Clearly" the Iranians decided to attack two oil tankers out of the blue.....one a Japanese flagged vessel WHILE the Japanese PM was visiting Iran.

    Given oil was in the process of sinking into the 40 buck range, shale drillers in the US have more motive than Iran........
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019
    Oddcaliber, Zimmy and Gator 45/70 like this.
  18. DKR

    DKR Raconteur of the first stripe

    Turns out they were likely limpet mines.

    There is video of an Irainian fast boat removing an unexploded/fail limpet mine from the side of another tanker.

    Gonna be hot time in the old Gulf tonight...
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2019
    Zimmy, Gator 45/70, 3M-TA3 and 2 others like this.
  19. Wildbilly

    Wildbilly Monkey++

    Those Iranian sailors are really brave to remove an unexploded mine from the side of an oil tanker, especially when they claim to know nothing about nothing! That is one order I would have refused to obey.
     
    Oddcaliber and Gator 45/70 like this.
  20. SB21

    SB21 Monkey+++

    The refusal of that order would probably result in the same result as if the mine had exploded during the extraction . They probably figured it was best to just take a chance , versus the definite death sentence .
     
    Oddcaliber, Zimmy and Gator 45/70 like this.
survivalmonkey SSL seal        survivalmonkey.com warrant canary
17282WuJHksJ9798f34razfKbPATqTq9E7