The most likely SHTF scenario...

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by IrishMonk, Apr 11, 2011.


  1. IrishMonk

    IrishMonk Monkey+

    So, the most likely/realistic SHTF scenario IMO is that a solar flare will hit the earth and knock out power grids and fry electronics etc. NASA confirms the threat to be a massive one, peaking at the end of 2012.
    YouTube - Nasa Warns Of Super Solar Storm 2012
    When the McDonalds drive thru is no longer an option for putting "dinner" on the table of the sheeple, and the blackouts last for weeks, if not months... things would get ugly quick.
    ( Remember the scenes from the L.A. riots in the 90s ? Or N.O. after Katrina ? Idiots looting Walmart, carrying out plasma TVs over their heads, instead of a pot or two to boil some water in etc., only to die 3 days later on some sidewalk from heat stroke or dehydration ! Silly scum bag, government dependent sheeple! I was there... I've seen with my own eyes people fighting over gasoline and willing to rob and kill for a few bottles of water ! How many reports of looting etc have we seen on the news from the disaster in Japan ? NONE ! Shines a light on the darkness which is the American inner city ghetto culture... God help those that will be in the cities in those days. )

    Anyway, ;) anyone have any info on protecting electronics, such as communications equipment like radios, etc. in such an event ?
     
  2. cool hand luke

    cool hand luke Monkey+

    Interesting take on things, but my money is still on economic collapse
     
  3. BTPost

    BTPost Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    There are lots of Scary Senerios that can be postulated, but the actual likelihood of any one of these actually happening, is very small, if one goes back over the historical record. Also, the Sun is a sphere, and it Rotates, and the Coronal Mass Ejection would have to AIMED Very precisely at Earth, to get the same effect as the 1851 event. That is very unlikely to happen, even in a Solar Peak Year. It is unlikely in the EXTREME for a Solar Flare to impact Terrestrial Communications Equipment via Electrostatic Impulse. Orbiting equipment is a totally different problem, HOWEVER, they are designed with those type of issues, in the design criteria. The reason there are Power-Grid issues is, because these are VERY Long Antennas, which multiplies any Electrostatic Impulse Issue due to the extended lengths involved, which most Communication Antennas do NOT have. The HAARP Antenna Array may, or may not, have problems due to its size, and I wouldn't even hazard a guess, as to if they have considered that in its design, but there are only two of those arrays of that nature and size known to exist. Typically when these Grid Interruptions have occurred in the past, The Lines are reactivated, by resetting the Interrupters on each end of the effected line, after the insulation of said line, is checked and found within design tolerances. Solar Flares CAN disrupt LF/MF/HF Radio, but MOST of todays Terrestrial Comms is done with FiberOptics, and these do not have ElectroStatic Issues, like Copper Transmission Lines do. If you look at the Institutional History of Solar Flare Electrical and Radio Comms Interruptions, Most of these issues are know and dealt with in the design of modern systems. Just my opinion, and as always, YMMV....
     
  4. Brokor

    Brokor Live Free or Cry Moderator Site Supporter+++ Founding Member

    That's one of the problems with attempting to narrow down just what is most likely to occur; we are faced with so many possibilities that it almost seems like any one could actually take place.

    We have the economic approach, the bio-warfare approach, EMP either natural or man-made, nuclear, biological (as in outbreak), chemical (as in disaster), natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, etc), civil war and martial law, and even gradual erosion which inevitably leads to radical change. Some would add alien invasion, or the appearance of such --but I only add this to complete the list.

    Honestly, I don't know if speculation on this matter will ever amount to anything positive, but it's all on the table no matter how likely or unlikely the scenario. That said, we can already see a combination of more than one of the above taking place globally. As for the actual SHTF scenario itself, it's more possible from my own understanding that no single aspect will be the final approach. I believe it is more of a gradual change which incorporates many, if not all of the ones I listed earlier which will ultimately lead to a SHTF/END of DAYS type of event.

    Strategically, this becomes a logistical nightmare to even conceive, let alone pull off. It might be best to pay attention to the warning signs of each, stay informed, and for better or worse, don't believe everything "doom and gloom" at first glance. It is better to prepare for the worst, hope for improvement, but also stay positive because this stuff can really drag you into the gutter real fast.

    No matter what happens, you can be assured that the "powers that be" fully intend on capitalizing on each and every catastrophe.
     
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  5. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    Ditto here....already in progress.
     
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  6. IrishMonk

    IrishMonk Monkey+

    I hear you, but I just do not see economic collapse causing a true SHTF scenario. Economies collapse... it's happened throughout history. It's happened here in America before as you know, as it has in many others. A reset of the dollar, maybe even a currancy change entirely... hyper inflation etc etc... Very hard times ? yep... SHTF ? not so sure...
     
  7. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    Depends on you definition, I guess.

    When the number of people living on artificial money stop getting that, and the civil chaos that results from it hits your house, you might think different.

    Is it REALLY gonna make an difference if a CME caused your power outage, or if the fact nobody could pay for power, and the power guys all went home to protect their family, and that's why the power is out ?

    Either way, you're out of power......along with the results of that.

    And you DID title the thread "the most likely". Anybody with a brain can see the economic trainwreck coming.....a CME is like an earthquake in the New Madrid fault.....yeah, they happen, and one is "over due" according to some, and you may live there the rest of this century and it never happen. You have my personal guarantee the US buck won't last out this century.
     
  8. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    Neither will I, nor most monkey members these days. And so, should I or the other short timers care less? You can see my point, that being that one's idea of prepping for something inevitable will be well different than others. Now, tell me the buck won't last the decade (it may well not) and I look at it a bit differently. Either way (you heard it here first) the buck will survive tho' not likely in its current form or value. Odds? 9:1 dollars to donuts.

    As said elsewhere, ya picks yer poison and finds the antidote for it. For me as an example, MZBs, EMPs or a tsunami are far less likely than a long term power outage, supply shortages, and the like. I have yet to figure out how much of a risk there is of a solar storm rendering my pickup dead, so can't do a proper job of prioritizing preps for that. The headline is "Solar flares could mean the end of the world as we know it." (Emphasis mine.) Well, so could an asteroid impact, or uncontrolled MRSA, or even an earthquake in this notoriously stable mountain chain.

    In my MT head, I have a hard time prioritizing preps when the odds of happenings are unknown or known to be exceedingly low (and therefore to be ignored.) Using the journalistic comeon of questions and maybes in the headlines just make me wonder at them, not the thing they are touting.

    BTW (reference the first post regarding most likely scenario) Kaku is a credible scientist in his professional areas (theoretical physics.) Michio Kaku - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    But he also dabbles in social policy. You have to read him in that context.

    Call me skeptical, and you won't be wrong.

    [beer]
     
  9. BAT1

    BAT1 Cowboys know no fear

    HAARP induced volcanic /earthquake events to explain the pre-designed world economic collapse followed by M/L. Then it's mass chaos, a new money system, and relocation camps, like what happened in the Holocaust.
     
  10. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    ghrit:

    The 100 year for the buck was simply a figure to compare to the possibility of natural disasters such as earthquakes, CME, etc.

    Where I can guarantee the buck won't last out a century, I CAN'T guarantee a disaster of natural origin in that same time period enough to be a country wide SHTF. While it could happen tomorrow, it might also be 1,000 years before the New Madrid fault shifts again.

    Point was, economic disaster is much more predictable. I'd give it a 90% chance in the next ten years, if that helps you plan any......ahahahaaaa....

    And thus, that puts in in the "more likely" category than a CME.
     
  11. BTPost

    BTPost Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    I am with you on this one Ghrit. When the Scientific Community starts dabbling in POLITICS, their creditability comes into SERIOUS question. If you watched the vid, he uses a LOT of "Wiggle Words" to describe these events, and when I see the Scientific Community, use "Wiggle Words", my BS Meter starts hitting the Max Peg, right off, and I start looking at the Published Literature, right quick, to see if there is an overblown extension of the KNOWN Facts, and Basic Theories, that characterize the speculated events. That is exactly what I find in the this case. Way to many "Wiggle Words" used, to be taken seriously, as an imminent issue. YMMV.....
     
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  12. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    Gotcher point, Andy. I was pontificating (and complaining about how long I'll hang in ---)

    [boozingbuddies]
     
  13. Falcon15

    Falcon15 Falco Peregrinus

    I'll put my useless fiat on Economic collapse by 85% as it stands. Wish I had a crystal ball and could say when...
     
  14. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

  15. Brokor

    Brokor Live Free or Cry Moderator Site Supporter+++ Founding Member

    You old skeptic, you! And I believe you are absolutely right. How 'bout that one for the history books? [booze]

    Just remember what's printed on the backside of the dollar bill for all those naysayers out there who truly believe the dollar is destined to become nothing. Worthless, sure. Debt-laden, absolutely. There's a much larger plan here, and it doesn't end with economic collapse. Due to the fact that the FED is privately owned and depressions and recessions are scientifically created, all that we see is the performance on the stage. There is still a future in dollars and donuts.
     
  16. Seacowboys

    Seacowboys Senior Member Founding Member

    Unemployment and inflation will make us more dependent on .gov and redistribution of wealth. More terrorist acts, real or false flag, will further tighten restrictions on travel, dissemination of news, and free speech. More will be forced by necessity to move into tightly controlled urban areas or refugee camps. Jobs will be offered that will feed the children of those that help enforce the new social mandates. Rewards will be paid for ratting out non-compliant persons, much like the already tried and true D.A.R.E. Program on steroids. Riots will mandate marshal law and most of us will support it as American, since the most likely to riot are minorities that are more highly dependent on the social tit. The two party system will continue to swap licks to divert our attention from the real problems. If Jesus returns during all this, he's likely to shake his head and mutter "WTF?" and go back home.
     
  17. VisuTrac

    VisuTrac Ваша мать носит военные ботинки Site Supporter+++

    Right now the US is 14.x trillion in debt. If congress does not extend the debt ceiling. We WILL have a global economic collapse. Basically the U.S. will default on the interest payment of it's Treasury Bills. At that point The global economy will go into the crapper save maybe Cuba. Countries that own our debt Japan, China, UK, a number of the oil producing countries are going to be hosed. That is i believe just less than half of the total obligation, another big chunk is in Banks, Credit Unions, Insurance companies, Mutual Funds, Public and Private Pensions Local and state governments, and individual investors that all wanted a 'SAFE' investment vehicle. Heck you might even own some too. Do you have any Savings Bonds or Patriot Bonds tucked in your desk drawer? Well that's a debt obligation you wouldn't be able to collect on if the govt defaults.

    It wouldn't be hard times it would be impossible times. All the liquidity in the market will be locked up tight. Let's just say that every entity has only 30 percent invested in treasuries. And the govt defaults (not being able to pay interest payments nor principal on debt). 30 percent of everyone holding go to zero.

    just for simple math,
    now states and local govts need to trim their work force by 30 percent, cut back services by 30 percent. Your monthly pension just dropped by 30 percent (probably more). Your 401k just took a hit that you probably are not going to recover from before you retire. You bank will probably go under because it leverages your money and those of other depositors, there is not enough cash in the safe to cover the losses, Not sure about credit unions but probably most of them too. Foreign countries are going to demand their money, and the US will thumb their noses at them. Our trading partners will
    never trust us again because their economies will be decimated by our actions or in actions.

    Yes IrishMonk, a financial collapse can be as bad as a meteor wiping out a large chunk of the population of the planet. At least with a meteor, It will be quicker and death from starvation will probably be lower.
     
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  18. Brokor

    Brokor Live Free or Cry Moderator Site Supporter+++ Founding Member

    Amen to that! Wait, what the heck am I typing?
     
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  19. BAT1

    BAT1 Cowboys know no fear

    Thanks for the link. That will hit the profit margin index for companies too. We are witnessing the end of a system of things, an old corrupt Ponzi scheme that has been exposed and run it's course.
    Good luck on the offshore banking cartels collecting then. They might as well forgive everyone's debt and let us live off the land around us.
     
  20. IrishMonk

    IrishMonk Monkey+

    There has been many economic collapses... can you please point out one instance from history in which such a collapse could be compared to a meteor wiping out a large population of the planet ?

    I'm not saying it could'nt be that bad... But since we do not have a point in history in which such a thing has happened, I would say the above quote is a bit exaggerated, or at least along the same lines as my own SHTF/solar flare position. ie it has'nt happened before, but things sure are lined up for it to become reality at any time.
     
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