Time to short the Market

Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by Clyde, Sep 21, 2010.


  1. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    Today, the market is up for no apparent reason other than an increase in housing starts. Now that the market is up, it is about time for a 500 point drop.

    I just bought about $30K in two ETFs: SDS & DXD. Both trade on 3x inverse of the market, one on the dow and the other on the S & P. I will let you know how this works....so far this strategy has worked well for me.

    I will let you know where the chips fall.

    Clyde
     
  2. gunbunny

    gunbunny Never Trust A Bunny

    I've been wondering about that cycle. My friends and me at work are now calling it the first hill of the roller-coaster; going up so it can fly down faster...
     
  3. flavapor

    flavapor Monkey+

    lots of puts on the s&p
     
  4. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    I'm normally a hoarder but this might be a good time to sell 25-30%. [​IMG]
     
  5. SLugomist

    SLugomist Monkey++

    So how is that short working out for you?

    Sept was a good month for stocks. So it goes to reason there will be a decline in October. Profit taking.
    The hindenburg analysis.... are we still waiting for it? It hit twice in August. Made me change half of my investments, just to be safe and cover.

    I'm actually hoping for a spring 09 crash again, great buying opportunity. At that time could have bought Ford (F) for about a dollar within 6-9 months it was over 10. Gains like that were everywhere.
     
  6. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    So far, my understanding is the market has risen because they anticipating a bunch of new money being created by the fed that will further increase stock prices by more money entering the market. I call this a "paper inflated" stock bubble.

    Nov. 3 is supposed to be the beginning of quantitative easing with another $500B and up to $2.0 Trillion of dollars being created by the fed to purchase up unsavory assets. Eventually the game has to end. It is nothing but paper increases backed by worthless paper.

    I collared my trade and exited with a small loss this time, but am ahead of the game.

    I have been waiting to see what the O admin does on the Bush tax cuts. If they extend, I am liquidating 1/2 of all IRA assests in the next 3 months and then the other half in january.

    I believe gold will continue to rise and as much as I would like to parcel off a good portion of the holdings, I would rather dump stocks than commodities and pay the taxes on same.

    Clyde
     
  7. SLugomist

    SLugomist Monkey++

    imo the big drop will be the 3rd 4th week of Oct. For the reasons you stated. Anyone big into the market will be scared either way of what "may" happen and not knowing what will happen, so they're going to pull out and wait it out. Also the elections will be right around the corner, more uncertainty.

    anyhow, good luck
     
  8. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Gold and silver are due a pullback. I don't use the word 'correction' because a true correction in metals would be up.

    I have to start using smart-guy stock terms like collared, exit, quantitive easing and dump when I post in here. This hillbilly only understand green up arrows and red down arrows.
     
  9. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    And what if the train has left the station, never to return ? That's what it's looking more and more like to me.

    You get left with a 28% tax bill and a pile of increasingly worthless paper notes......standing alongside the track watching the caboose disappear in the distance !

    If you need to convert back to paper to buy something, do it.....but I'd be real leery of taking paper profits for the sake of paper profits.
     
  10. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Yeah, I know. But I've watched the train leave and back up so many times in the past 5 years that it makes me wonder if I could have added a few more ounces on those dips.

    I'm just talking tough... I don't think I could do it even though I boot myself in the ass everytime it dips again.

    BTW, I'm real close to your brother now...
     
  11. Bear

    Bear Monkey+++ Site Supporter+++ Founding Member Iron Monkey

    Remember when it was $4 and we fretted about buying even at $6... or when it was $350 and we fretted about buying even at $500... ah... the good old days...
    Come to think of it...
    These might be the good old days in a few more months or so...
    Seems like the good old days keep getting closer and closer... instead of farther and farther in the past.... each time you look its a another shift....
    I think we had it pretty good when we were kids and even not so long ago....
    What say?:D
     
  12. Clyde

    Clyde Jet Set Tourer Administrator Founding Member

    Stellar week for the market shorter!

    952 shares purchased at $21.00 Monday

    952 shares sold at $23.72 sold Thursday

    4 day profits of about $2,600 on $20,000 play.
     
  13. CATO

    CATO Monkey+++

    I have just done this...although it was tough for me to stomach, and bought a sack of gold (not as much as I was thinking actually). If gold keeps getting higher, I will cash some out to be paid in silver.
     
  14. rogrant84

    rogrant84 Monkey+

    The economic downfall really distorted Forex figures including PM's (precious metal's) values. Because of the distortion, it is very hard to make a reliable forecast of PM values nowadays.


    Robert Grant
    New Mexico Gold Buyers
     
  15. impulse

    impulse Monkey+

    Monday is going to be brutal.
     
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