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To catch a falling knife

Discussion in 'Financial Cents' started by oil pan 4, Dec 24, 2018.


  1. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Falling Knife

    Well if you are a tool like me you probably have a retirement account.
    If you are like me hopefully you trade your stock funds for bonds or cash funds some time around September or October.
    Because historically October and November are the worst preforming months for stocks and those 2 months are when almost all of the big stock market crashes originate.

    The problem with the stock market and stabile growth stuff is it just doesn't make that much money even when it does what it's supposed to. What you need to make money is volatility, chaos and panic.
    The stock market is in full melt down, but as I do every year, like a call to mecca, I moved my money into bond funds. Did so in September.
    I have been fearing a stock market crash since this summer, figured it would either happen this fall or next year.
    This is probably going to a long deep dive, the dow probably won't level off till 18,000 to 20,000.
    If you haven't sold out your stock funds you probably should I bet there is still a ways to go.
    Now the next event in stock market performance is January. Historically it is the best preforming month. It could turn around some time in January, but if it doesn't, then you enter February, which is the 3rd worst preforming month so if January falls through or kind of levels of you can bet it will drop right through February.
    I expect this crash to take 4 or 5 years to recover from.
    Do you want to bump your retirement out 4 or 5 more years?
    Ain't no body got time for that.
     
  2. Zimmy

    Zimmy Wait, I'm not ready! Site Supporter++

    I've got a little pension and I'm working on another. I'm not in the buying and selling market anymore.

    You plan looks solid.
     
    Dunerunner likes this.
  3. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    I got to agree. People and the market chiefs have to make money and you don't make money until you sell so... I figure ~18,000 definitely South of 20,000. It was and still is, too high closing at 21,792.
     
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2018
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  4. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    I have reviewed past major down turns. They tend to fall to the previous peak, which in this case was around 20,000.
     
    Gator 45/70, Ganado and oldman11 like this.
  5. Altoidfishfins

    Altoidfishfins Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Never put much into it except right after 9/11 when the Dow hit the skids.
    Moved money out in the following years so 2008 wasn't too big of a haircut.
    Been quite wary of the markets ever since the "Flash Crash" in 2010.
    Stocks are simply too risky for my tastes and now that I am retired they're pretty much out as an investment.
     
    Gator 45/70 and oldawg like this.
  6. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Same thing for 2008, I moved my money into bonds like usual and missed that one too. But I didn't have much to loose or gain back then.
     
    Gator 45/70 likes this.
  7. BenP

    BenP Monkey+ Site Supporter+

    I invested mine in a homestead.
     
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  8. Thunder5Ranch

    Thunder5Ranch Monkey+++

    I like Land, Guns, Ammo, Food and Things I can see, touch, smell, hear and shoot. Always operated on any kind of money is only good for trading for things of real tangible value. Just like markets, futures and playing black jack my way ain't for everyone but it has served me well enough.
     
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  9. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    First of all I doubled my money as soon as I put it in. And I will do an early withdrawal if I feel it necessary.
    At certain levels of financial shtf it is better to have currency than it is to have stuff.
    For example when the idiot Obama took over and the financial sector had a melt down, unemployment was at record levels.
    Everyone was trying to sell their stuff just so they could pay bills for another month.
    Well the problem was it seemed like everyone was doing it.
    So the used stuff market was awash with stuff people were almost giving away.
    If you have a bunch of stuff any you need money to pay bills, need to pay taxes on land, fix a vehicle, fix your self, chances are no one is going to want your junk or want to give more than pennies on the dollar for what it was worth.
    That's why cash is king in minor melt downs.
     
    Gator 45/70 likes this.
  10. BenP

    BenP Monkey+ Site Supporter+

    My company matched 100% back then so I contributed the max to my 401k with the long term goal of pulling it out and buying a homestead at some point. It has worked out well, our expenses are much lower, we are probably saving $200-300 a month just on utility bills, $150/month for gym memberships and we should start turning a profit on the cattle this year. Being out in the country and not keeping up with the Jones also makes a big difference with the expenses, no car payments, car washes or cleaning lady anymore. It is not for everyone but we really enjoy it. I don't buy stuff, if I spend money it is usually to do something to the house or to buy more cattle.
     
    Gator 45/70 likes this.
  11. arleigh

    arleigh Goophy monkey

    I am heavily invested in junk ,literally by the ton .
    Right now no one wants it ,but a few eons into the future and it will all be worth what ever it takes to haul it off,, so right now I is my resources for play. .
     
    Gator 45/70 likes this.
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