Topic of the Month Feb 2019 What IF...

Discussion in 'Survival Topic of the Month' started by Dunerunner, Jan 31, 2019.


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  1. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

    If not upside down on the house, I would put it on the market. Rent a cheap place that was safe, cut out anything that is not food, gas or vehicle expense.

    I might give up the vehicle if I was upside down on it. Let them come take it, you can use it for a couple of months till they come collect it. Ask @Motomom34 how long that takes to get a car repossessed.

    Food would be beans and rice till we found a job. I would not wait around and worry about unemployment, file for it but keep looking. Unemployment runs out eventually.

    You can scale back but most people don't have the scale back conversation with their family soon enough.

    Discipline and delayed gratification are not skills most people teach their children.

    Failure as in losing a job, is a good teacher for future preparation.

    Great topic! @Dunerunner

    Telling someone not to get themselves into a situation after it's already done, which is the case in this hypothetical scenario, is counter productive and offers no solution. The point is, what to do now, not assign blame. And people make bad decisions all the time hindsight is 20/20 the key is how do you recover from those decisions. Me thinks your post misses the point of the exercise. Do you have a solution or two?
     
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  2. duane

    duane Monkey+++

    There are two sides to this story, the macro one of the present situation we live in and the micro one we live in as individuals. If we all let our houses and cars go back, stop paying utilities, taxes, etc, the country collapses as the schools, public services, power companies, roads, etc count on our taxes, insurance payment, interest payments, etc to keep the whole ball of wax rolling along. If people don't make their payments and pay their taxes, my savings disappear as the financial system disappears, my power stops when either I can not afford it or there is not enough money to buy fuel for the power plants or pump the water, run the sewage plants etc, social security and medicare disappear as all the money I put in has long since disappeared. I hope our future is not like Detroit or Flint, much of Africa, savings in Greece, etc. The whole point of prepping is to react ahead of the tipping point, in 1933 those who drew their money out 1 day before the banks had it, those who waited til the day after, got about 10% of it in late 1940's and inflation had reduced the buying power of even that amount. I knew a man who had a business, house, etc who bought a car on payments in 1932. In trying to keep it, he lost everything and when I knew hi in 1958, he still had not been able to get his finances back to where they had been in 1932. It is all good to say that you should not get into a bad financial fix, but the whole goal of our present society is to get you to be a good sheep, do just that, and run on the treadmill paying interest and taxes until you die.
     
  3. Ura-Ki

    Ura-Ki Grampa Monkey

    This topic hits very close to home for me, so I will share my story!
    In 2001 we lost my first wife, i was deployed in Germany at the time and had to take emergency leave to be with her at the end. After she passed, every thing fell apart. As a young family living on mil pay amd her income of about 34k a year, we were not poor, but not well set, living within our means, but tight. Her body was still cooling when the first collectors came calling, and with the new reality of a single income, there was no chance for my sons and I. The state refused to help with any thing, i was employed and made enough in their eyes to not need food or mortgage assistence, so. I had to short sell the home, sell her car which was a year from being paid off, and move my boys in with my folks ( who were glad to help) and start paying down the bills and eliminating the entire estate. This was done with out declaring bankruptcy, or recieving any outside help. I had to send my entire pay home every month to support my boys and their needs, and to keep my folks from any extra expense incurred.
    If not for my folks, my sons would have been in a very rough place, and there would have been some serious considerations to have to face!
    Long story short, outside circumstanses can really catch you out and leave you hanging. We got through, we cut every expense we could, and we survived!

    What really pickled my hide was the states refusal to offer any kind of help, the Mil had nothing, social security had nothing, and what benefits my wife had had, basically paid for her burial and casket. Then the bill collectors and all the other circling vultures show up. I jad strangers show up to the house offering to re finance the home to me, but paying them instead of the bank, thr bank shows up and tells me unless my income changes, i have 30 days to vacate ( sheriff told me I had 90 if i really wanted to stick it to them) and the car people refused to work with me, forcing me to sell her car at a major loss.
    All in all, i lost about 60k practically over night on the home, and another 50k in personal property that i had to sell in just a few weeks, i was able ti settle all the bills and show zero's across the board, but thats exactly what we had, ZERO!
     
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  4. Gray Wolf

    Gray Wolf Monkey+++

    Sell the house. Sell the new car, get a beater van or pickup with a camper shell. Many people are happy living a minimalist lifestyle in vehicles. If you can get a small solar panel it will keep your phone or laptop charged, and charge your vehicle battery for some 12 volt lights. In Quartzite, AZ, you can stay on BLM land for 7 months out of the year for a total cost of $180. Water is available, but you have to haul it, and dispose of your waste. There are some RV parks that charge $500 a year! Not many amenities, but it gives you an address and a hassle-free place to park. Sometimes a friend may not have room in their house, but may have a place where you can park. For income, use your imagination. For me, I would write articles for various publications, or publish books on line. Maybe some crafting. There are people making a living as mobile mechanics, or doing handyman chores. Find a need, and get paid to take care of it. Many RV parks will give space rent and electricity in exchange for work, some also have a small salary too. Use your mind.
     
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  5. Salted Weapon

    Salted Weapon Monkey+++

    First things to think about, is nobody is immune. Just ask all the firemen, policemen and others that had investments and lost it all.
    The prepared, invested wisely and still lost all their money. I know one such person, he is a 78-year-old Marine veteran. He worked with the fire department for over 40 years. Continue to invest all those years and lost near everything except for his house.. He then had to take a job at age 71, go out of retirement and back to work for just over minimum wage. If you want to know real fear imagine the end of your life and losing everything with no time to recover at all. He was a tough guy so he had no problem working hard even at his age to recover from what had happened.

    When I was very young age 14, I started working to save to go to college. Parents are going to help but it was something I wanted to do. My parents both make very good money back then in the 70s. However due to my dads stupidity he lost his job and the domino effect began for me at 17. So the funds that I had saved to go to college were now used to help our family survive. Shortly after losing his job which was due to substance abuse. My parents divorced,, now I was homeless for short amount of time. That's what happens when you make an awful lot of money and live in a high-level when things are stripped out from underneath the lose everything all at once. So I turned to working and helping my family to dig myself back up, and get a grant to go to school. No I did not give the school loan I worked hard today grant to help with it, and then taking some of my own money that I had been putting aside paid for it

    This is not a sob story, my point of even spelling this out is the best we can do is prepare and hope for the best. I realize this website is dedicated to prepping and survival, but even those that plan for decades can lose it all. So this was to give an example at the very beginning of adulthood and the very ending how no matter how hard you work in the middle things can end up poorly. Today those life lessons that put me in that perspective to survive on very little. By doing so I avoid putting myself in the position like I had in my earlier years.

    I hope to hell no one here ever has to go through losing everything he worked for, it's very hard to get over that devastation and then still be motivated enough to move forward. Of course everyone has their story my point is not to tell mine but to give people the idea that prepare for the worst and hope for the best. That's really all we can do even the best backup plan to fall apart and instant. One last thought, my father-in-law worked all his life owned a business, and now has a ranch of his own and work very hard for it. Then six years ago, he got cancer and he has had about 12 other health issues since then, eating into almost a half million of expenses medically even though some were covered. this coming from a guy that worked for the Chevron Corporation and made some very good money also now is struggling to survive with a huge amount of debt that has changed everything.
     
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  6. duane

    duane Monkey+++

    No matter how much you save,no matter how much you prep, if you have an accident where a crooked lawyer can convince a jury it is your fault, he gets at least 1/3 of any money, you pay your lawyers, so you are sc***, you have a serious illness and medical insurance only covers about 70 %, in some cases they pay the "going rate" and the hospital takes you to court for the unpaid balance, you go into a nursing home, you bought a good house in an area in "transition", Detroit, etc, and although it is paid off, it isn't worth anything. Some very good houses in northern NH after the paper mills etc closed, are now worth less than undeveloped lot in southern NH. You retired in 2000 and had your 401k in the stock market and had to get out, or 2008. Had it invested in some fly by night companies like GM, Chrysler, Pan American Airways, Eastern Airlines, AOL, etc, and needed money then. The powers that be and your neighbors decide that they want a new school, improve the subjects taught, need a new police station and fire station and to make it professional. Now the house you bought for $25,000 is valued at $250,000 and the taxes are $6,000 a year and every one wants to make a quick buck selling your house, updating it, and get people with money in their who will pay the taxes and demand the services.
    We may think the individual in this case study is foolish and living beyond his means and it is all his fault. I see almost all of these same problems happening to people who did everything right, had the factories move, had illness in family, divorce or court problems, retired and had pension plan fail or IRA's bring in 10 % of what they told you they would when interest dropped from 6 % to .4 %.
    Wish I knew the answer, haven't figured it out yet.
     
  7. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    Yes, unfortunately, it is the new America....for those this happens to, they are mostly screwed. Bad part is they were a party to the screwing by doing what everybody does.....get gratification today in exchange for debt.


    We've owned two houses we lived in during our 40 odd years of marriage. The first one was a small 2br, 1ba house we built on a lot we paid $2500 for. Then used 10k we saved over the previous 4 years (lived on one paycheck, saved the other), borrowed another 10 and built the house....as in drove every nail built, not had someone come build it. Put probably another 5k into it (decks, etc) in the 7 years we lived in it, paid off the little mortgage. Drove well used cars the whole time. Sold the house 7 yrs later for 50k. Borrowed 65k to buy the farm land we have now, used the 50k to build the house. Paid the land off in 8 years by doubling up payments, been mortgage free since 1990.

    Now we 'could' have gone the conventional route.....bought a 50-60k house for a starter, after 7 years we might have had 5-8k in equity, then bought a 125-150k house the next time, and maybe just have had it paid off a few years ago.....and spent 300k in interest between the two.....INSTEAD, we worked smart, and hard, and saved something like 225k in mortgage interest.

    The numbers on house prices have changed, of course, but the percentage is the same. The very best thing you can do to get ahead in life is BUILD YOUR OWN HOUSE, IMHO It takes hard work, and you have a learning curve (I'd never built more than a set of bookshelves before we started that first house), but anyone without severe physical handicaps can do it, I'm satisfied.

    $600/mo car payment ? How damn stupid. We've bought more new cars thru the years than used (but the first new car was 10 years into our marriage)....and then drive them for 12-18 years. Current car is a Subaru Outback 2011. My truck is a 2003 Chevy. I'll likely keep the truck until I die. The car we may replace in mid-2020's if VW comes out with a good electric model that doesn't cost an arm and leg....meaning the car will be 15 years old. We save up now and pay cash.....but even when we did payments. never had one over 250/mo. No excuse for anyone that only has 5k in savings to buy a car that has a 600/mo payment...that is simply stupid, and stupid will hurt over time if you don't learn from it.
     
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  8. Dunerunner

    Dunerunner Brewery Monkey Moderator

    I have to interject here that my truck and RV payments combined are over $1400/month. Truck will be paid off next year, RV paid off three years from now. The house in 8 years from now. Such little things like $10,000 for hearing aids, then another $7,800 to replace them because my hearing deteriorated out of range of the original set only 7 years later, put us behind the curve.

    The scenario may not apply to everyone exactly, I just wanted folks to put themselves in that situation and take a shot an how they would work their way out of it. Sometimes, as some have stated; life throws you a curve and the options you are left with are few and mostly undesirable. How you would deal with it and the choices you would make are the meat of the discussion.

    I agree, lose the car and get into something used and pay cash from the savings.
    I agree, lose the house.. Either sell it, lease it, or rent it.
    I like the idea of a used motorhome or Class C van conversion depending on your family size.
    Living in an RV, either on a friends property for free or boondocking for free would be perfect but transportation for work would still be necessary.
     
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  9. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member


    I figured it out 25 years ago. I bought into the "IRA" and mutual fund thing whole hearted in the 80's.....what could be easier, any twit could invest in Fidelity Magellan fund and get 10-12% return a year. But if you got to REALLY studying it, we were being sold a pile of crap by the financial industry. Historical averages were being skewed by that 10-20yr period, inflation was guaranteed by the use of debt based currency, and future became clear to me the more I learned....we were going to be SCREWED. And guess what, whole lot of folks are finding out you can't save long term in a debt based currency that is guaranteed to beat you, if it's even there at all.


    So in the late 90's, every time I had a little extra cash, (self employed carpenter, easy to take cash and do this) I'd stop by the local coin shop and buy something like an 1/2oz gold eagle for 150 FRNs (Yep, gold was under 300/oz), or some silver rounds for under 5 bucks (now 16). I cashed out, paid the taxes on my regular IRA in 2006 and went all in on silver in 2006 at 6 bucks. 2008 I took out my Roth IRA, used it to set up solar on our place.....that saves us 150-200mo in electric costs which is WAY better than the return on the Roth.

    2000-2006, I built 3 rental homes on lots manged to buy here/there years before because they were really good deals. Using lumber off my timber, built the kitchen cabinets, made all the trim in my shop, etc, as well as 95% of the labor, it would take me a year or more doing it part time when I didn't have cash jobs. Rolled the rent of one into building another... built all for cash along the way, borrowed nothing...my costs were 35-40 bucks sqft. for what I did have to buy. My plan at the time was that rent income was going to be my retirement....3k month. Turned out, I hate being a landlord, so I sold 'em all just before the bottom fell out of real estate 2007-08, and walked away with a pile of cash, put a lot into 900 gold, banked the rest.

    Wife worked at a local school system for 32 year, going back to school for a doctorate early on (how one maximizes school pay). With her retirement + ss and my small ss, we do fine for income....we'll milk the crap out of it for as long as it lasts.....but if it all went away tomorrow, we'd be OK because no debt, homestead that already produces most of our food, fuel, water, power, etc, ability to produce income from it IF needed, and our non-paper savings.
     
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  10. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    Sorry for what you went thru, but this is textbook case for why you buy cheap, term life insurance when you have kids, and lots of it.

    The financial industry will want to sell you 25k in 'whole life' crap for 30 bucks month (because it's extremely profitable to them) when they could have sold you $300-500,000 in term insurance for 20 yr period......that would have gotten your kids raised and then the need for insurance falls way down.

    How would your life have been different if you'd had 300k ?
     
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  11. Zimmy

    Zimmy Wait, I'm not ready!

    I've been employed almost every week since I was 12. Most of the experience was in my hands or back. Day or night, inside or outside, hazardous or strenuous it didn't matter. Gimme a chance at all the hours ya got.

    I still hit bottom 3 times in my life where I didn't have a place or a plan on where I'd lay my head at night.

    The first was due to my Huckleberry attitude as a young man. My family didn't have a chance at figuring out my wild ways and put me out at 15. I built a shack out of some falling down barns nearby and lived there for about 9 months hidden in the back of the family land. I didn't miss a day of school or work but I am sure I worried my family sick.

    The next time was post-military. I got back home off-kilter and took about 6 months to wander. I did without some but mostly made do and slept in open places. It took a good woman and a child to get me anchored again.

    The 3rd time I'd been back in a house on the homestead for a few years. My demons were dead and the world was golden. My Dad died suddenly and I spent every dollar I could earn delaying the loss of the massively mortgaged property. I lost and lived in a teensy one sided pop-up for a winter with no power and a hose thrown over a limb for a shower.

    My first two crashes were self driven situations. The third wasn't. I was making a lot of money trying to save the home place to no avail.

    I was shoveling money in the debt like throwing sand off a pier trying to make an island. Sometimes all you can do ain't good enough.

    I kept working and recovered again. I came back up debt free and life is better without tithing to the banks every month.

    Life is work. You don't have a right to like it. That's up to chance and attitude.
     
  12. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

    THREAD DRIFT lol

    It is not the same today as it was even 20 years ago..... Everything is over double what it was for basic necessities. Gas is $3.00 a gallon ... it was $1.00 a gallon in 1990 and $2:35 - 2:56 a gallon in 2009.

    Minimum wage (federal) in 1970 was $6:55 and went to $7.25 in 2009 and is still that rate today.

    I use the banana test for pricing. Banana's were 10 cents/lb in 1970 and now banana's are 50-60 cents/lb.

    Do the math
    gas 300% increase,
    bananas 600%,
    wages 90% increase

    Average Cost Of New Home Homes
    1970 $23,450, 1990 $123,000, 2008 $238,880 , 2013 $289,500,
    Average Wages
    1970 $9,400, 1990 $28,960, 2008 $40,523, 2012 $44,321
    Average Cost of New Car Cars
    1970 $3,450, 1980 $7,200.00 , 1990 $16,950.00 , 2008 $27,958 , 2013 $31,352 ,
    Average Cost Gallon Of Gas
    1970 36 cents , 1980 $1.19 , 1990 $1.34 , 2009 $2.051 , 2013 $3.80 ,
    Average Cost Loaf of Bread Food
    11970 25 cents , 1980 50 cents , 1990 70 cents , 2008 $2.79 , 2013 $1.98 ,
    Average Cost 1lb Hamburger Meat
    1970 70 cents , 1980 99 cents , 1990 89 cents , 2009 $3.99 , 2013 $4.68

    Back to the thread.
     
  13. hot diggity

    hot diggity Monkey+++ Site Supporter+++

    This was an eye opener for me. I was thinking that to make the scenario more relatable to my world I'd have to drop a zero off just about everything. I can't even imagine a $600 car payment, (I have two cars now that I paid $500 for. One just $50) and that median home price is six times what my last house cost.

    Okay, here's my take on things.

    Sell the car. Buy a bicycle from the thrift store. No need for a gym membership. Get up early and go to work.

    Take some of the $5K, hire a realtor to sell the house, and find you a cheap rental at around $400 a month or move in with a relative who needs help around the house.

    Cut the cable, get a Tracfone or other budget phone plan. (not for your entertainment - phone is for new job search) Use public WiFi at the library. Communicate via text ONLY.

    Learn how to shop for food. $500 a month is way too much. Try this diet that I know all too well. Bowl of Cherrios from the Giant Size box, with three canned peach slices cut up, four sugar cookies and water (on cereal and to drink) for breakfast. Family size Walmart sliced roast beef (four pieces) on Italian bread (with FREE fast food packet condiments) sandwich with water for lunch, and one ninety-five cent McDonald's hamburger for dinner with water and a couple cookies.

    Have a yard sale. Sell off everything that you can't carry on the bicycle. TALK to people... No. Not those people. Talk to people who are your new peers. They're not scary. They're just folks, just like you. Did you look at yourself in the gas station bathroom mirror? Whoa! Shave and dress in your cleanest clothes. Networking is what successful people do, regardless of their economic situation. Do you know how to apply for public assistance? SNAP? I've met eight year olds who have it down cold. You've never met them because you don't make eye contact with them.

    It could be worse. You could be sleeping in the park under wet newspaper. Hey! There's a HELP WANTED sign. Grab it as you enter your next new employers business and tell them how much you appreciate them hiring you.

    You can do this. Stay positive. You're not the first one to have to start from zero. It won't be painless, it won't be pretty, but you can recover.

    Get some sleep and get moving as soon as the sun comes up tomorrow. (Under 42? drop by the recruiting station. ;))
     
  14. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member


    Though the general drift of your post is correct.....dollar prices have vastly increased since the late 60's (because we were forced to use fake money....... prices in REAL money haven't changed all that much), the federal minimum wage in 1970 was not 6.55, it was 1.60.

    This simply points out why one should save long term in gold and silver rather than investments denominated in paper dollars.
     
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  15. hot diggity

    hot diggity Monkey+++ Site Supporter+++

    I've remembered a few other odd possibilities while getting ready for work.

    I think I could reduce costs and live well just selling off accumulated stuff for a couple years. I know a guy who did this, as a business, for many years. It's amazing the junk people will buy on ebay.

    Another solution would be to turn hobbies into income. I had a very talented welder/fabricator building race car chassis in a rubber tent in the woods. He'd been there for years, and had employees. :)

    He later moved to a storage unit, where he removed some walls and was there for a year or more before moving West.

    Lots of solutions. No job gives you time to think too. :)
     
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  16. AxesAreBetter

    AxesAreBetter Monkey+++

    HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!!!
    I went into business for myself. HAHAHAAAAA!!!
     
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  17. Ganado

    Ganado Monkey+++

    I understand your point, those numbers were a mere means of comparisons over time.

    I remember my Dad telling me to take a $100k a year government job because it was 'secure'. I lived on the edge of poverty for several years while I launched my own business. And all I ever heard from him was, you should have taken the government job. As a Father, hHe was worried for my future. Now he sings a different tune because government jobs are not secure.

    I now work 60-70 hour weeks and am grateful for my clients because of that experience. When I am tired from working a along day, I remind myself I could be starving again. I watch the financial markets and follow the money on international movements and have been fortunate to double my money in the last 10 years. But I don't do what everyone else does. I am not much into gold atm because I don't see an end use that justifies the pricing.

    Prepping is not about the 'stuff' it's a mind set for working when you have work and putting by for the future.

    In @Dunerunner scenario there are two options that need to be handled simultaneously. Cut back on spending, search for alternative income via selling stuff or selling skills. One of my relatives makes tamales in December to pay for Christmas. She does very well at it. Her husband complains about the amount of time it takes her to make and sell. But she spends the money the way she wants to and doesn't put the family in debt for the Holidays.
     
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  18. AxesAreBetter

    AxesAreBetter Monkey+++

    Tamales is smart money for that. Pretty good idea.
     
  19. arleigh

    arleigh Goophy monkey

    One of the things I did was to take several different jobs and expand my resume.
    I grew up in a place that one could not live on one skill alone ,mountain resort town had all the seasons and one market was slowing down the others were just waking up.
    One had to have flexibility .
    True I was not rich ,in fact I was always just making enough to get by, but we did.
    there were good times and bad and really low times and that was OK , fortunate to have friend and family to fall back on from time to time .
    I think that I have been on 3 vacations in my lifetime ,and the only new vehicle I own is a motorcycle which was my primary commuter vehicle . A lot of vehicles and thing had been given to me ,largely because they required more work than the previous owner cared to spend. Being a mechanic the skills paid off.
    Life is not fair ,if you've got a bucket of money some one is going to find a way to get it from you. If it is a little bucket they don't get much and acquiring another is not all that difficult , the bigger the bucket the bigger the loss and harder to replace .
    A specialist though usually highly paid ,pays to keep it and the losses are great if things go south be cause his dependence was on paying for all his services needed he was unskilled to perform .
    Some medical issues can be avoided by living strait and eating good food and not taking unnecessary risks with your life i.e. down hill bicycle racing.
    Don't be so easily enamored with what some one else is doing like sport fishing when you can't afford the boat or gear. Buying fish at the market is a more reasonable use of your resources .
    It is cheaper to go fishing in a rented boat and shared with others that know what they are doing.
    I cared for literally hundreds of boats, that less than a tenth of them ever actually got used.
    I have been given boats too, that only needed some work I learned to be capable of .
    A boat is like a horse ,it get's old whether you use it or not ,the more you use it the better value you get out of it, but letting it grow old unused it dies any way.
    Actually learn from the mistakes of others, don't repeat them thinking you are exempt from the force of gravity .
    I have had rich friends and acquaintances ,and I have learned to keep them at bay and we stayed good friends (they have long since passed away) I respected their affluence with no intention of being a pest . All too often I have seen people that work the society chain for money and influence, and if they fall out of favor, and the fall is devastating. it is no wonder we have so much corruption in government.
    I digress.
    I find it reasonable to maintain a low to medium income, and the grey man behind the scenes making things work .
    The only one I have to impress is me. and that being the accumulation of a repertoire of skills. which I can turn to as times change.
     
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  20. Motomom34

    Motomom34 Monkey+++

    If one leaves out all the other part of the scenario and just use that above, it is close to what some retired people live on.
    Many live on that and try to survive on $1400 a month. If we leave out all comments of people being irresponsible, @BlueDuck was very correct~The things we talk about on this forum are not a joke. Pay attention. I have been asking myself if I was on my own with no one to help me, how would I survive and get ahead on $1200 to $1400 a month. So people do it.

    M first thought is they eat oatmeal everyday. Oatmeal is cheap, nutritious and filling. I know my great-grandma ate it every morning. I know of a guy that ate bologna sandwiches every day for lunch. Every single day. He knew the cost and it was cheap. If the bread, mustard or bologna was on sale it would mean extra money that week. Which meant he had extra in his budget and could put an item in food storage.
     
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