Total SHTF scenario...

Discussion in 'Tin Foil Hat Lounge' started by IceRanger, Apr 2, 2020.

  1. IceRanger

    IceRanger Intellectus Refuticus

    Not sure where to put this, but since this is entirely hypothetical (right?) and almost entirely tin-foil hat (right??) I figured I'd put it here...

    Using the current COVID scenario, let's paint a picture; enemy of America attacks now, when we're at our weakest. American military is still strong, and conventional-only warfare is not going to go the enemy's way, so they drop a few nukes on selected locations. Tactical, but a couple of city-busters. New York, DC gone. Much of the West Coast. A couple of strategic locations like Pittsburgh. Truly, all life in America as we know it is GONE, and there are real hot-spots--as in, radiation hot-spots--all over the coasts.

    You're 20 miles from one of those hotspots. Far enough from the initial blast to have not been affected by it, but now radiation is a concern. You aren't really prepared to "bug out" unless you truly have absolutely no other choice, BUT you have a fully-stocked basement, security, etc.

    What, PRECISELY, would you do in that situation?

    Keep in mind you don't know the nukes are coming until they've hit. You literally have minutes to make decisions and do what you're going to do.

    Curious to see people's responses.
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  2. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

    Coming to stupid folks ..
    Relax and learn , take notes
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  3. Illini Warrior

    Illini Warrior Monkey+++

    the US alert is only 20X more right now than on an early average Sunday morning >>> yepper -time to attack ...
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  4. Merkun

    Merkun furious dreamer

    What I would do (precisely) would violate my personal OPSEC in that it would reveal some details that I'll not let out. Therein lays the one of the problems with posing scenarios.

    In this scenario, which way is the wind blowing? Winter or summer? Might make a difference.
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  5. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey Site Supporter++

    They won't take out big cities because that's where all the wealth is concentrated and collaborators live. Even if they picked a couple to demonstrate their power they would face an obliterating counter strike. Right now it's wait and see how bad this gets and how weak we become. The war is happening and has been ongoing. The path to victory is to bring our manufacturing back to the US and stop all foreign aid that doesn't provide a ROI.

    Don't know if you have noticed, but most people are bugging in whether they know it or not. Most have realized that they can't be an island and are checking up on neighbors and relatives. Bugging in is a community response. If/when security becomes an issue we will work towards everyone's self interest.

    When we moved here I began to meet my neighbors ,mostly by bumping into them while walking my dog. I subtly got a feel for each person's mindset in conversation, which is one of the first jobs of a suburban prepper. I was greatly assisted by then current news stories about the eventual Cascadia earthquake event and many of them brought up the topic. Obviously, information flow was as one way as possible. I have a feel for who lives paycheck to paycheck and who is gun friendly and otherwise.

    I have neighborhood maps and a rough security plan that includes Motorola IDEN communications which I can provide. If things go south we will get together and discuss how to go about things.
  6. apache235

    apache235 Monkey+++

    If the cities you mentioned were nuked, I’d call that urban renewal.
  7. Dunerunner

    Dunerunner Brewery Monkey Moderator

    I believe, for my local; I would be somewhat unaffected. I'd break out my favorite, saved for the apocalypses whiskey and my favorite group of you better not eff with me firearms and wait for the party to start.
  8. IceRanger

    IceRanger Intellectus Refuticus

    LOL for the most part so would I.

    As for everyone else answering, thank you. I know the question is far-fetched (that's why I posted it the tin-foil-hat area), and I know there wouldn't be a ton of sense to the scenario playing out this way; obviously any nuclear attack is going to be followed up by a return volley by the United States (mutually assured destruction, and all that), but nothing in the way governments play with each other makes much sense, and power-mad people do stupid things despite the end result for their people (hello, Hitler). This is hypothetical in that it's highly unlikely.

    But then we're witnessing something pretty bloody unlikely, if you ask me, and we've been prepping for the unlikely for years with no real evidence that any of it would come to pass. Why? Because we know that no matter how "unlikely" something is, it or something like it is bound to happen sooner or later because human beings get too big for their britches (breeches) now and then and comeupance is delivered.

    SO, on the hypothetical, the question still stands. I understand not wanting to jeopardize OPSEC, so don't provide details that you'd be uncomfortable with anyone knowing. That isn't the point of the exercise. I'm looking at, literally, the five minutes after the blasts hit; you realize bugging out isn't a good option, but doing nothing at all is a death sentence. What do you do?

    In the next message I'll post a thought or two as to what I'd do. Maybe some will critique that and we'll get the same effect as answering the question as posed.
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  9. Ura-Ki

    Ura-Ki Grudge Monkey

    Depends on the targets and a bunch of other factors too numerous to mention! If it were to go down today, were are already at out bug out location which for OPSEC reasons I will not share details of, but to say, were about the safest of all U.S. citizens within CONUS! That safety can last as long as the food supplies, which are ample, so baring any serious medical needs, were good for a very long period of time! Now, if we were to be invaded, all bets are off, but one, and that is mobility, and in that, we are pretty well prepared, more them most, so there is that! The real trick is knowing it's coming, were it's coming to, and not being around when that happens, and that is my final magic trick!
  10. IceRanger

    IceRanger Intellectus Refuticus

    Okay, I'm going to use today as the basis of this particular SHTF scenario. It's a nice spring day, 50s, sunny where I live. I don't know which way the wind is blowing, and while it would be easy enough to check, I wouldn't know at the moment I looked out the window and saw a mushroom cloud to the north, either--so I'm going to behave as if I don't have that information. Besides, I've already concluded that if Pittsburgh is hit, bugging out is probably a foolhardy situation for me and my family--

    --I've already considered that I live exceedingly close to the WV border, and quickly moving south wouldn't be terribly difficult...except it would be. Even though WV is sparsely populated, it really only takes a single broken down car, broken down person, government-mandated checkpoint, etc. to clog the route and leave us EXTREMELY exposed with nowhere to go and little choice but to either stay in the car or head for the woods (someplace I really don't want to be as the fallout begins spreading).

    I live in a two (finished) story house with a full attic and full basement. The attic is insulated. the basement is as most basements are; roughly four feet completely underground, with a couple of feet above grade. Several small windows, one door. Most of our preps are in the basement already, as is our entire water operation which gives me (at least) hundreds of gallons of already-stored water at my disposal. I also have minimal but functional solar and battery down there, for as long as it could function. The concern that ash could cover the panel is there, but for a little while we'd have power.

    My thinking is that no matter the severity of the fallout in my area, the two stories plus attic above us, and four feet below grade around us, gives us the best chance (I didn't say A GOOD chance, just the best chance) to survive the worst of the radiation, and the stores allow us to be downstairs for a very long time. I don't want to risk my own OPSEC so I won't be specific, but months is not out of the realm of possibility.

    The weakness of our basement for these purposes is the windows and door. The door is solid wood but opens to an open stairwell--no protection against falling irradiated ash. The windows are very small. They're enclosed within standard block (8 total inches) but the windows themselves are inset so that they are flush with the interior wall--no "sill"--which is also a concern because there's no convenient way to stack anything in front of them, and the current bolt-in-place wood coverings are, again, no protection from the radiation.

    My first reaction is to command the kids to grab bedding and go bags (flashlights, change of clothes, etc.) and head for the basement. Wife will do the same, but will come back upstairs to help with carrying other stuff (firearms, valuables/sentimentals) while I secure the structure and grab all the meds I can, together with firearms, radios, etc. and what tools I have upstairs that may be needed downstairs.

    I intend to be "moved in" completely in five minutes or less.

    My immediate concerns are these; first, I don't have any way of measuring radiation inside or out, no way of knowing how bad or not bad it is. I'd love to think I can remedy that before "the event", but by this scenario the event is TODAY, so...

    I also have pets--a dog (which is definitely coming down with us) and a dozen cats. My first inclination is that the cats are probably staying upstairs to meet their fate, but there's something to be said for having small animals that will find every nook and cranny in the enclosure; they can expose weaknesses, and will likely develop symptoms of radiation poisoning before we do, thereby acting as harbingers. Not the best test kit in the world, but it's something. Besides, dead from my wife is no better than dead from radiation, and I'm pretty certain she'd kill me if I left her cats behind.

    Once downstairs, my immediate action is to secure, and then attempt to block in some way, the door and windows. I've got things stored down there that could be hastily thrown in front of them, but to what extent these boxed goodies would block radiation is anyone's guess. I'd feel more comfortable if they were books (they aren't) or, you know, lead panels...but we're talking spare household goods and woodworking tools--nothing substantial.

    There is one area of the basement that is fully enclosed, an 8x8 "room", if you will, underneath one of my porches. So there's a concrete slab above (six inches?) which is under roof and receives little in the way of rain or blown debris typically. I'm hopeful that this may provide some protection. Three walls are completely underground, the fourth open to the center of the basement. This is the area I intend to set as the "living" space. The animals (and I) will roam the basement; the rest of the family, not so much.

    The exception to that is toilet functions, which would occur in the far opposite corner. A drain there will deal with urine; the rest is going to have to be bucket and lye.

    Having typed all of this, I realize we are probably toast. I can't get around the fact that if fallout is heavy, we just don't have enough radiation protection--and a month or three cooped up in an 8x8 room is probably a death sentence in it's own right.

    I'm no expert, and I don't suspect many of you are, either--but I went through the tail end of the cold war, and was in school during the "hide under your desks" drills. I saw the films they showed us, and remember most of it. I know we're lacking, but still better than most.

    What are your thoughts? What might you do differently, and why?

    What are YOUR plans?

    Thanks for any answers you primates would be willing to provide.
  11. IceRanger

    IceRanger Intellectus Refuticus

    I'm unsure there as well. If the nukes do NOT happen, we'd probably bug out in the face of an invasion force, which I'm hopeful I could keep abreast of via handheld scanner and handheld HAM radio. I don't know that either will pick up much, but I'm located sufficiently close to major marine traffic that I could maybe get a little info there. For this scenario, though, I don't expect invasionary forces in any number, and we'd be pretty hard to locate unless they're going door to door, which doesn't make much sense to me given these circumstances. And us being outside with no radiation protection is probably a death sentence in a most uncomfortable way.
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  12. Dunerunner

    Dunerunner Brewery Monkey Moderator

    Post #7....
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  13. arleigh

    arleigh Goophy monkey

    I don't think one can run/drive away fast enough however if you have some sort of bomb shelter you might survive.
    There are plans for them on the internet.
    However, people do not take you seriously unless some one has died very close to them .
    But because you made the investment your neighbors obviously have the right to enter, even thou they have nothing invested.
    And if you don't then in you are a selfish b,,,,,,,,,,,
    So How many is the limit you can house? their friends and cousins and aunts and uncles and so on.
    The argument is, what is fair?
    How will you answer?
    Will you turn away children?
    It get's complicated.
  14. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    Unknown for certain, but the decision tree is pretty well defined. Worse, your sit and mine are totally different, I cannot know where you are (and don't want to) to postulate YOUR actions, and mine would certainly be different. OPSEC rules for me, as it should you. The more details you add to your scenario, the easier it will be for some rogue monkey to find you, and as one banned monkey once threatened, burn you out for your supplies. (Or drop a tree across your escape hatch.)
  15. IceRanger

    IceRanger Intellectus Refuticus

    Good advice, and appreciated.

    I've always been concerned with OPSEC from an OUTSIDE perspective, thinking that people who think like me are more "inside"; but I suppose there's nobody "inside" except my family. I'll take this into account going forward. Thanks again.
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  16. Tully Mars

    Tully Mars Metal weldin' monkey

    Yer a Tease...
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  17. Tully Mars

    Tully Mars Metal weldin' monkey

    We will head to our Fuhrer Bunker as I like to call it.
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  18. Thunder5Ranch

    Thunder5Ranch Monkey+++

    #1. Don't live 20 miles from a target to start with.
    #2. Don't live in the path of a fallout zone to begin with.
    #3. Have the security in your area tight and know when someone is coming long before they arrive so you can whack them and take their stuff, so they don't whack you and take yer stuff. Even if they whack you have the place wired with enough black powder or other boom stuff to destroy everything of value. Many see Rogues as a scourge, I see them as an opportunity......... Kind of like a free stuff delivery service :)
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  19. sdr

    sdr Monkey+

    I like playing the scenario what if game. Problem I run into is most of them have a very limited set of details leaving too many unknown variables that leave out the possibility of a truly logical plan.

    A simple scenario like a broken vehicle in the middle of a forest would still require many details to truly come up with hypothetical plan.

    Nevertheless, I still enjoy them.

    In yours I see a few assumptions that would have to be made. Lets say bugging out isn't an option.
    Having the ability to seal your basement as best as possible with plastic and wood on the windows would be a must. Coming up with some type of filtered ventilation is important. How about making your home appear looted if you have enough time for that. Assuming it would only be a matter of time before you come under assault a defensive plan is a must.

    The world has had many SHTF events happen in the past. I try to learn from them the best I can.
    I figure its only a matter of time before they occur again.

    A book was written titled 'Last Train From Hiroshima'. Few years ago it was edited due to some inaccuracies. Something about an eyewitness account that wasn't correct. I read both and liked the first version better. It went into greater details of the science of the explosions. Incredible stuff. Anyway, I was shocked to learn how many people survived that were close to the blast. Some where directly underneath.

    The books went into detail of how the people who experienced the pika-don (flash bang) survived or died. Not knowing what it was or how dangerous the radiation could be left many examples of what happened during different personal experiences.

    I suggest reading them. Be forewarned though. Its a very difficult thing to read about. It took a long time for me to get over it.
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  20. IceRanger

    IceRanger Intellectus Refuticus

    These are great ideas. I hadn't even considered the air purifier/ventilation system. And I'll definitely look into that book, if for no other reason than to get a better handle on the "what if".

    A book I read not long ago, which was actually a collection of three long-form stories that were intertwined, is "The Old Man and the Wasteland". In it, the author posits that China attempts a US takeover by landing forces on the West Coast (specifically, San Francisco). In order to do that, they essentially nuked the entire East Coast so they could concentrate their forces in the west. At the time it sounded plausible but fantastic.

    It doesn't sound so far-fetched anymore.
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