Discussion in 'Freedom and Liberty' started by Dusty308, Feb 5, 2012.
I need some feedback on what to expect in the US if we go to war with Iran?
As tankers avoid war zones; higher energy prices.
What about their weapons? Are we talking about an EMP or complete destruction from a nuke?
My honest opinion is you can exspect anything I just hope it dont turn to. I also fear that this time there will be a good possibility why we are fight them over there they will be fighting us here. I dont care what any investigator says I believe deep in my heart Iran has nuc's and just like North Korea they are not scared to use them. I also feel if we do go to war with Iran we will also be going to war with Russia and China. Not to even say the American econemy gas and food will sky rocket.
EMP requires a nuclear air burst; while I do believe the TSA is incompetent, I doubt it.
Sources vary as how much of the world's oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz; no matter who is correct, energy prices will go through the ceiling.
Bear in mind that the US isn't the only economy that depends on Hormuz for material and commodity passage. I would not be the least surprised if other nations take action, before, during, and after the sterile zone on the Iranian side of the straight is established. I estimate any military action against Iran, either preemptive or retaliatory, won't last longer than a week, and the straights are re-opened for normal commerce.
Saber rattling and bluster is reserved as the province of the weak. Iran makes noise and can be a tick on the back of many dogs, but I really don't think a war (or "police action") will amount to a hill of beans. Amadipshit hasn't the resource for anything extended, and neither Russia or China stand to gain enough from backing him to make it worthwhile. In fact, both can get oil overland, and really would not like to see the source damaged to the extent that their supply could be restricted. They will both wring their hands, but likely won't lift a finger.
To answer the OP question, the effects, if any, will be short lived here. Probably also made worse by speculation.
Thus spake me, and maybe me only.
Gas prices skyrocket, as do the prices of food, power, water - all is connected. All requires vehicle transport for supplies or finished materials.
It'll take some time to establish new trade routes around the radioactive glass patch where Iran used to be........
I just dont know if we have enough to finance another war, plus our guys are worn down and tired.
The conventional portion of the war will be over rather quickly, and will be decidedly one-sided. It won't look exactly like the assault on Iraq, but the U.S. has no intention of ever putting ground troops in Iran and, therefore, there won't be as much effort to shape the battlefield.
Putting ground troops, other than small special ops groups, in Iran really isn't an option, unless the U.S. is ready to accept significant casualties. Iran has better than three times the population of Iraq, and the communities aren't as fragmented as those in Iraq. The topography of Iran is also more difficult to fight in than that of Iraq, and lends itself well to guerrilla activity.
Air Defense sites near the Gulf, and Nuclear facilities, and Republican Guard bases, will be taken out, without much problem. Large scale bombing raids, with extensive use of standoff weapons and cruise missiles, will occur. Any attempted use of conventional weapons by Iran, such as their submarines, will be stopped with only moderate effort, and the bases they launched from will be targeted for destruction.
Iran has significant conventional weapons, and a well-trained military, by regional standards; but they are no match for the U.S. Navy and Air Force. As much as their leaders like to sabre rattle, they know that as well. We can expect them to try and get in a lucky shot with a silkworm missile, and we can definitely expect them to attempt to extensively mine the Gulf, particularly the area in and around the Straits of Hormuz.
What we can expect is a prolonged, asymmetrical war; similar to what we have experienced with AlQaeda, far from the Persian Gulf. Iran actually has links to AlQaeda, and has kept several AlQaeda leaders, including one of Bin Laden's sons, as "guests" since AlQaeda was driven from Afghanistan. While the theology, and strategic vision, of AlQaeda differs greatly from Iran's, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", at least temporarily.
Iran also has extensive ties to Hezbollah, in Lebanon; and can, to a great extent, "call the shots" with Hezbollah. Iran will use Hezbollah operatives, Republican Guard Commandos, and their diplomatic offices around the globe to spread terror. Israel will definitely see rocket and bomb attacks, possibly sparking another Israel-Lebanon war. U.S. military bases around the world will see bomb attacks. Jewish synagogues, community centers, and other activities will see bomb attacks. Israeli and American Embassies around the world will see bomb attacks, and assassination attempts.
It won't be a conflict with sharply defined boundaries or rules, or with a sharply defined ending.
My two cents.
I expect the war would be just like every other war since Korea. The majority of Americans don't have a clue where Iran is and don't care. While many young men and women will be doing what they believe is their patriotic duty, back home the headlines will be about whatever propoganda the gov't feeds us. And of course there will be those who get rich or richer from another u.s. operation.
There are a few of things to examine here.
1: Less than a week ago, the IAEA issued a report stating rather implicitly that Iran was not developing weapons grade nuclear material.
2: One day after that Israel's Intelligence - the same folks who insisted that Iraq had WMD's - are vociferously insistent that Iran has enough nuclear material for at least 4 weapons and contrary to US intelligence, Iran has developed a long range surface to surface delivery vehicle that could theoretically reach the eastern seaboard of the US.
3: Israel is openly and publicly stating that they will go to war with Iran in April, May, or June. This removes the US as the aggressor, of course we will still be involved, however, it politically hamstrings Russia and China from taking any retaliation against the US directly.
4: It is a well known fact that there are Hezbollah cells within the US, and any open aggression against the Iranian people would very likely result in an attack inside US borders that would make 9/11 look like a church picnic.
Even if the alphabet soup boys were able to stop 99% of any internal, US soil attacks staged by Hezbollah, that 1% could be so devastating as to effectively end freedom as we know it. It would cause an invocation of PDD-51 (continuity of government) and full invocation of the NDAA...well, you get the picture.
At the minimum, a war started with Iran will see a doubling of oil prices, and thereby fuel costs. It will also push the Eurozone into deeper financial trouble, which could hasten their economic collapse.
Saudi and other oil countries cannot possibly handle the additional demand if Iran ceases delivering oil. They do not have the capacity or reserves. Even if they did, the price would be driven up because of uncertainty.
Iraq's WMD Secreted in Syria, Sada Says - The New York Sun
As I mistrust both sides here; I can't honestly believe either side about WMDs.
If Tehran enriched uranium to 90 percent, it would be forced to break its four decade-long adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
Foreign Policy: Stop The Madness : NPR
Again, based on past performance of either side; I don't trust the Hawks or the Doves.
JMHO :: Hope it's just a proxy war
Israel will have had enough of Iran's threats. And as Iran ramps up its capabilities, Israel will strike at targets of industry and military importance.
Oil cost will go from 100USD/bbl to 140-150 almost immediately.
Iran will not be able to go toe to toe with Israel but sympathetic groups will bring the fight to Israel.
Iran will retaliate by mining the straits
groups inside of and surrounding Israel will conduct terror events in Israel
Israel will crack down on internal/surrounding groups hard.
Oil speculators will drive the cost of Oil to go to 175-200/bbl
Hopefully we can stay out and let Israel fight their own fight.
But if an old US Navy vessel runs into a mine or gets torpedoed or a silkworm slips through it's mostly the Israelis fight. (or gets is targeted by the israelis to draw us into the fight. Conspiracy Thought)
Once one of our old ships (that was going to be decommissioned anyway) is sunk, all bets are off.
It's remember the Maine, Gulf of Tonkin all over.
I don't have a real good feeling what is going to happen here in the states because what happens here directly relates to what we do over there. Sleeper cells, radicals, etc.
If there are strikes here, and martial law is declared, NDAA is in full effect we will have bigger problems. It won't matter what is going on in the middle east at that point.
Maybe nothing, maybe a lot
Iraq is bigger than Iraq as noted earlier, and a large, young, population.
Young and restless.
Azerbaijan is now a pretty much a Russian territory as are parts of Georgia. So, Iran and Russia share a common border, as does Pakistan, not our best friend of late.
Not too worried about us, but
Oman, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait have got to be shitting themselves about now. They all have fairly modern military equipment - but a history of running for the border... and also suffer from restive populations.
So - what could happen?
At the far end, Iran attacks and takes Kuwait, parts of Iraq (they are almost there anyway) - Qatar and UAE capitulate (because the ruling class books out) and the modern equipment falls into Iranian hands, with willing assistance from the rank and file. Don't forget the Iranians still fly F-14s and F-4s, they know how to use our military equipment.
Pakistan throws in with Iran, fully cutting off our troops in the 'Stan. Turkey declares itself neutral but openly aids Iran. And we know for a fact that the Pakis have at least a dozen WORKING atomic bombs... Very not good.
Russia warns of "dire results' from any American counterattacks. Mobilizes their considerable forces - don't forget Putin is in deep kimche at home, so a war scare would help him politically.
Pressure on the CIS means our guys could be cut off in the 'Stan and the USAF will have to support a fighting retreat, with our troops being evacuated via C-5, C17 and (forced to use air to air refueling), we have to land our troops in India, further inflaming issues between them and the Pakis. They BOTH have working nukes and Theater class Ballistic Missile systems. Very, very not good.
With about 1/2 our imported oil cut off, we will be forced to trade with those sharp Canadians - who could provide all our needs. The US Might even be forced to open ANWR! for the oil. OMG bad, right? Watch as you dollar circles the porcelain throne and disappears...
So we are forced out of the middle east altogether, get no oil from there - then the Euroweenies give in to pressure and we leave Europe as well. With massive cuts (far more than planned) in the military, unemployment will spike....
Ya, reads like a bad action adventure novel.
We can hope that if the Iranian leaders are that stupid, this time the administration will have the b*lls to support the local people as they revolt against the mullahs.
Bottom line, glad I don't have any stock, the home is paid for and we have laid in food supplies - 'cause no matter what, it will be a wild ride, with the biggest wildcard sitting in DC.
DKR we can only hope for a good outcome !!!!
But like the way ya laid it out !!
Israel will start it, with a bombing raid.
The Iranians will let loose a Sunburn anti ship missile or two, taking out at least one of our carriers. The CVN Enterprise, due to be de-commissioned next year, seems to be over there for the sole purpose, in my mind, of sacrifice ( like the US did with all the old battle ships at Pearl, while all the "good" stuff was at sea ) to inflame this country into war.
Oil will jump to 200/barrel, easy, maybe more, and the same corporations that have profited by the last 10 years of war in the middle east will profit by the next ten years.......assuming Russia and China don't jump in feet first. My guess is China will use the distraction to retake Taiwan.
My advice is have plenty of fuel/food/etc stored by the Ides of March.
Thanks everyone, great information!
The one thing we can count on is when the time comes 0bama will do the wrong thing.
Well we still have "hope"
Many hard core Bible Scholors think Iran is the modern day Perisa as they will gain contorol over the evtire middle east except Isreal. The USA doesnt seem to be a player when this event happens.
My personal opinion the whole thing will blow over for now althought just the BS will drive up oil prices.
Unfortanately I honestly dont think the USA as a country and as a people have the "Heart" necessary to fight WW3.
Honestly....Im sick of fighting wars for other people. I just finishe 14 years active duty. Not once was i deployed to defend this country. Always off to fight someone elses battles. Yes i believe we were justified in going into Afganastan....but i dont think we should have stayed to rebuild it. Dont even get me started on Iraq and WMD's.
I will gladly take up arms once more. But only to defend this country from invaders. Let the rest of the world solve their own problems.....
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