I see a lot of folks proclaiming that President Trump will be reelected after these lawsuits and investigations finish up. I’ll believe it when I see it. A number of reasons lead me to doubt that scenario, but a last minute Hail Mary victory for Trump would be very on-brand for 2020. Pending the unlikely, the country’s low intensity conflict is due for a role reversal. We’re about to see an incredible amount of whiplash as the Left and Right switch sides of the playing field, and the Right becomes the political and proto-insurgents. Warning indicators of insurgency are pretty simple: A social base becomes politicized. A politicized social base has organizers who are preparing for insurgency (Phase 1 activity) A politicized social base whose organizers are preparing for insurgency while rank and file participants are conducting tactical training, acquiring weaponry, and building institutions dedicated to insurgency (also Phase 1 activity) None of these activities actually stopped over the past four years. There was a drop off in some activities due to a decreased sense of urgency and “Our Guy” syndrome, but it’s all about to return at much higher levels. A Biden administration will be — best case scenario — Obama’s third term, and Harris (+) represents the next generation of Far Left presidencies. In other words, there’s no moderation, unity, or healing from here. The sentiment that drove proto-insurgent activity among the right wing during the Obama administrations — the one that actually didn’t stop — is going to come roaring right back. Civil war 2024? Continue reading...
