Why do I need to prep?

Discussion in 'Back to Basics' started by fortunateson, Mar 3, 2010.


  1. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!

    I'd like to start a thread to offer convincing proof that preparedness is necessary.

    The target audience will be non-preppers.

    If enough of us write well thought out articles, perhaps we can compile it into a printable essay which we can give to friends and relatives.

    Hey admins - If you like what you see, maybe you can make it sticky?

    I'll start with the first submission: 62 days until the end:
     
  2. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!

    62 days until the end.

    What do you think about while you're filling up your gas tank? That's right, while the pump is whirring away and the dollars are clicking steadily upward, what is going through your mind? If you're like me you're probably praying that the dollar window stops somewhere south of $50. What you're probably not thinking about is the gas that sits below your feet and the long virtual pipeline that gets it there. That “pipeline” stretches from the tank below that filling station to a bunch of oil tankers at sea. Did you know that that “pipleline” has only 62 days of supply? That is to say that if every drop of crude stopped flowing tomorrow, we'd only have 62 days of gasoline left in the US. That's 23 days of gasoline plus 39 days of crude oil in the supply lines. Diesel, Kerosene, home heating oil and LP gas are on similarly short notice.
    Now I'll agree that a complete stop in petroleum flow is highly unlikely, a large scale interruption to that flow could send prices so high that the purchase of these fuels would be economically unfeasible. What would happen, for example if the US went to war with one of the gulf states and the flow of tanker shipments from the gulf were cut off due to mines and missiles? 62% of the US oil supply would then be eliminated and prices would skyrocket.
    In this scenario, farmers would be unable to purchase fuel for their combines. All but the largest trucking companies would be unable to fuel their rigs. In short order supermarket shelves would quickly empty. Gasoline theft would be at an all time high and a simple trip to the grocery store would cost a good portion of a days pay. Are you prepared?

    http://blog.gasbuddy.com/posts/Total-oil-supply-cushy-and-outlook-remains-cushy/1715-388543-167.aspx
     
  3. Seawolf1090

    Seawolf1090 Adventure Riding Monkey Founding Member

    We in the Southeast saw this first hand in 2008, when we got a double-whammy of two close hurricanes. All oil production was stopped for a few weeks, platforms and refineries shutdown. Stations sold out quickly, with days when NO gas was available. Slowly, it was trucked down from northern and western states.
    No problem of me personally, as I had thirty gallons stored and was riding my motorbike. Co-workers had to really scrounge to get gas.
    Basically, we were in a SHTF condition fuelwise for nearly two months. Some stations never recovered. Others are still shutting down as new regulations mandate the replacement of underground tanks with those suitable for the new E10-laced gasoline. Smaller stores can't afford the change - their pumps are bagged. The stores can't make it without the gas sales to bring customers in. [shtf]
    We've been noticing a change at the big box stores, even the Wally's - broader aisles, less stock on the shelves, less 'choice' of different brands, fewer employees on the floor. A sign of these troubled times...?

    It was long considered that we had "Three Days" before the store shelves would be empty in the event of a major breakdown of transport. I believe this could now happen in ONE day today. :rolleyes:
     
  4. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    This is a great article: Why Survivalism


    I've had the best results in talking to the uninformed when I climb down from my crazy pole first. People are much more likely to comprehend the need for a couple extra $20s in their wallet in case the power goes out and the ATMs are dark than a frothing sermon on the NWO (Rothchild-Rockeller-Oligarch) controlled Federal Reserve, which is not Federal at all you see, and how the endgame is the liquidation of 80% to 90% of the population because we have reached the end of our usefulness so you had better stock up on grenades cuz the war is a coming.

    I personally find the latter much more exciting but it can be a little overwhelming over that first cup of cofffee.

    [boozingbuddies]
     
  5. Northwoods

    Northwoods Monkey+++

    it's simple...
    I have a bandaide in case i get cut...
    I have insurance in case i get in a accident..
    i have boots in case it is wet out..
    i have mouse traps in case of mice...
    i have a chainsaw in case a tree needs cutting.
    i have a wife in case...never mind...i'm not sure why i have a wife but i love her dearly and would be lost with out her...
    I PREP........ IN CASE.....
     
  6. Brokor

    Brokor Live Free or Cry Moderator Site Supporter+++ Founding Member

    Mrs. Zimmerman peeked out her large living room window as the blistering January air blasted the near invisible barrier between her and the snow-filled landscape. I really hope that the police will be able to patrol this area soon, she thought to herself. She makes a move to turn around, and her eye caught a sudden movement just at the corner of her front lawn; a masked stranger is running toward her side door. "Crap," she squealed aloud, "My doors are all unlocked." Gun fire could be heard all around her neighborhood since martial law was declared yesterday morning; the town grocery stores were all barren and deserted and anybody caught outside was subject to arrest. This did not stop looters from pillaging neighboring homes in the hopes to score any provisions left behind by owners who did not make it to their homes. Racing to the door, she slipped and twisted her ankle on the stairs to the entryway. The sound of the door opening added to her anxiety, and the sound of a shotgun being cycled sent visions of blood drenched horror into her mind. Her safe and beautiful home on Oak Street, in the once peaceful town of Smallville has instantly become a deathtrap. She would give anything at this moment to go back in time just three or four days and stockpile provisions, add security measures to her home, and acquire some kind of self defense: a gun, baseball bat, a flamethrower...The very last sound Mrs. Zimmerman remembered was an extremely loud blast from a shotgun. Her husband would never even make it home to find her disheveled corpse, laying twisted and disfigured at the foot of their carport door.
     
  7. dragonfly

    dragonfly Monkey+++

    Why do I prep?
    Now that's a good question and I can only say there must be a lot of diverse answers to it.
    I do it because; I want to live, and I want my family to be able to stay alive in case something really disastrous and tragic should happen. I do not do this because it is easy, nor because I am some fringe lunatic...I do it because I have been told by people such as my Grandmother what it was like in the great Depression era. Those stories still haunt me. I am able and willing to do what it takes, to see to it that my family and friends can have a life, not based on fear, but on self preservation and knowledge. It is insurance. Just ask people that had to suffer thru katrina what it was like....I do not want to rely on some governmental agency that may never show up. I do not expect the government to look out for my safety and wefare, nor do I expect other people to feed or clothe me. It is my responsibility to myself, and to my family, to make sure they are able to have their basic needs taken care of.
    I prep, because I care!
     
  8. Mountainman

    Mountainman Großes Mitglied Site Supporter+++


    I think you got the name wrong. It was Sheepleman!
     
  9. tommy20/69

    tommy20/69 Monkey++

    Re: 62 days until the end.

    i don't know about that 62 days stuff but down here for a huricane we run out in 1 day so if the whole countrys supply would stop i think 3 days is tops for the supply to run out. the stores only pump so much out of their tanks and the rest has to be left in there for emergency use but that drian out really fast to so like i said 3 days is stops for any gas after that your walkin.
     
  10. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!

    Re: 62 days until the end.

    Well that's a good point. The 62 days is what is actually in the supply lines, but doesn't mean that you'll get gas. As you say, any major interruption would make most petroleum products impossible to get in very short order.
     
  11. dragonfly

    dragonfly Monkey+++

    Local gas stations and convenience stores mainatin and shut off their pumps when they get down to 300 gallons ( or at least they are supposed to).
    Just having the elctric go down (4 days on 2 occasions) in a 1 square mile area was enticement enough to get my "stuff" together. Stores would not open and people went scrambling out of the area, in order to find gas and food in other areas...which created another problem....Too many knew the power would be out for up to a week, so they decided to buy everything they could afford and haul from those areas, which in turn created an additional shortage...Kind of a dominoes effect!
    It was a real eye opener!
     
  12. ozarkgoatman

    ozarkgoatman Resident goat herder

    Re: 62 days until the end.

    If you cant get gas then truck drivers can't get fuel either. So they can't make deliveries. I can get about 160gal. of fuel in my truck. I fill up almost every day and put between 70 to 100 gallons in it. If SHTF I garrentee you my load ain't getting delivered!!!! I'll drop my trailer were ever I am (even in the middle of the highway) and use every once of fuel I have getting as close to the house as I can. [2c]

    OGM
     
  13. fortunateson

    fortunateson I hate Illinois Nazis!


    I got started prepping because of hurricane Fran in 96 (or 96?) Our power only went down for 36 hours, but some folks I knew were down for 3 weeks. The grocery shelves were cleared out in less than 12 hours. Few stations could pump gas. Lines were forming, fist fights were starting.

    At the time, I was commuting 60 miles each way, so I knew that things were just about normal 30 miles to the west. We just hopped in the car drove out, filled up with gas and groceries - no problem.

    That taught me 2 things:
    1. Think outside the box. Whatever everyone else is doing - do something different.
    2. It was a warning shot. Better prep in case something like this happens again or worse, in winter, etc.

    2002 we got hit with an ice storm in Dec. that was almost a repeat of Fran. By this time, we had kerosene heat, firewood, lanterns, etc. We were quite comfy.

    It really pissed me off, however to hear people complain about how miserable they were, how they had to sleep in their cars for heat - THEN tell me how they remember this happening in other storms all the way back to the '60s !!!! You've been through this how many times and you didn't so much as buy a kerosene heater !?!?!? UNBELIEVABLE.
     
  14. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    The answer is simple, I think. Many years ago, I worked for an old Swede. He said, "People. (ptui) Schmard lika stikk uh vood. Dey duzzint lern ven de lessons iz in dey facez."
     
  15. Allen

    Allen Monkey+

    In Houston, after they tried to evacuate the city during Rita, I went back to prep-mode. I installed a Natural gas stand-by generator. When I was looking for a house, I had checked for good elevation so flooding shouldn't be a problem. I have a swimming pool & a Pur pitcher, so water is taken care of. we should be OK for several weeks.
    I also have an additional benefit. I work in the marine field so I have access to our fuel tanks. If SHTF, I could also get to a number of yachts & reach Mexico in short order. Knowing how to get a boat underway gives me an extra option.
     
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