Food Prices are going up this year.

Discussion in 'General Survival and Preparedness' started by Thunder5Ranch, Jun 18, 2019.


  1. Thunder5Ranch

    Thunder5Ranch Monkey+++

    As we inch toward July and the Midwest has just 58% of the planting done and what is looking like 6 million acres that is just not going to be planted with roughly another 12 million acres that is expected to be low yield at 40%-60% of normal yields. That comes up to about 18 million acres of the 92 million acres in the USA. 2019 is expected to break all previous records for no plant and crop failure since the early 1980s.

    Where the food cost going up most noticeably will be is in Beef, Pork, Poultry and Eggs. But the domino effect will impact almost every food that has a corn or bean product ingredient. Which is just about everything now days on the store shelves.

    In my region we got hit with a lot of flash flooding a few days ago that washed out thousands of acres of seed and put just spouted corn and beans underwater. But it is everywhere from the Dakota's down and on East through OH and IN. Won't know for sure how extensive the damage has been until August when the USDA reports come out but it does not take a genius to see what has been and is still going on in the fields across the entire midwest and what the implications of losing 20% of our crops will mean in the food economy and grain by products economies.

    We are going to try in a week hopefully to get our beans planted but have more rain falling even as I am writing this. Would be a bumper crop for hay if the tractors didn't sink to the frame in the hay fields :)

    In the vegetable fields of the 4 acres I had planned to plant this year, I finally have 1 acre planted of tomatoes and Peppers. Very glad I reduced that from 12 acres of vegetables to 4 and did not start all of the plants for 12 acres this year! Bad enough throwing away a couple thousand pepper and tomato plants because they were in the flats too long. Even more happy that I have 1800 bushel of corn in my grain bank at the elevator now that I can ride out a bad year with for the hogs and chickens. Running out of corn on a widespread ag disaster year and having to pay $12 per bu + like happened in 2012/2013 HURTS BAD.

    IF you have livestock now would be a very good time to buy corn for feed and bin it or bank it for the coming price increases. It is a given that corn prices are going to go through the roof very soon.
     
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  2. oldawg

    oldawg Monkey+++

    ^^^^^ No sweat. The rest of the world will ship in tons of tons of free food supplies same as we have done for them for the last 80 years right?
     
  3. Seepalaces

    Seepalaces Monkey+++

    Totally....
     
  4. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Expect the price of almost nothing we buy day to day or are major expenditures to go down with our government running things.
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
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  5. Gator 45/70

    Gator 45/70 Monkey+++

    Rice and crawfish are doing well with all the rain....and sugarcane!
     
  6. Oltymer

    Oltymer Monkey++

    Maybe doing a bit of gambling with corn futures on the commodities exchange would be worth researching. Many are blaming this on the weather caused by the lack of sunspots, called a solar minimum, and if true then it is only going to get worse every year for the next coming couple of decades.
    My neighbors corn is doing wonderful right now, and home gardening is a cure for when modern agriculture comes crashing down.
     
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  7. Motomom34

    Motomom34 Monkey+++

    It is not just crops but I noticed that pork jumped at least a dollar a pound in the last month. Last week I had a banker tell me that the housing bubble was going to burst in 12-18 months then a stock broker said recession is predicted sometime in the next 5 quarters, this was before the Prez mentioned recession. People are not feeling stable and with the weather this spring, many in the mid-west will be hurting. Their livelihoods will be threatened. I have no clue what a farmer that raises corn does if he cannot get a good harvest for a year. The snowball effect will happen.
     
  8. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

    We just had 1.49 dollar day up here in Canuk land , Bacon in 475g (just over a pound) for a package of good looking bacon .
    Picked up a case of it . Last weekend I had a buddy call me and said there was a free freezer on the road , Loaded trailer and Got it . Commercial upright one that is clean and works well .
    Sloth
     
  9. Airtime

    Airtime Monkey+++

    We are in the mid west. Have had about 10” of rain in last week alone. Crazy wet this year. If you are smart you have crop insurance which can even cover no-plant due to weather. My BIL farms our land for us and the adjuster was up a couple days ago surveying the situation. We’ll not get a crop in this year. We’ll get the max on insurance and will not spend any money to plant a commodity crop. Corn is expensive to plant, in ballpark of $200/acre. We will have to spray the fields to burn down the weeds and plant a non-revenue cover crop to protect the soil. I think we’ll see about 85% of what we would have netted in a more normal year with insurance. Not bad all things considered. Most grain farmers carry crop insurance.

    Given the crop insurance is backed by the government, instead of farming the land, this is called farming the government.

    You know why farmers wear ball cap style hats vs the cowboy styles ranchers wear? So they can shove their face in the mail box without knocking their het off when looking for the government checks in the mail.

    AT
     
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  10. Thunder5Ranch

    Thunder5Ranch Monkey+++

    That is the domino effect prices will go up between now and August. When the August crop reports come out, it is not going to be pretty.


    No Plant only pays out around 40%-50%. Replant and a Fail pays out 70%-90% depending how big of dickhead your FSA office is. The way to go is have the late failure like in 2012 and collect around 130% after ACRE kicks in and pay the premium market price. No plant is about the biggest suck situation unless you can cancel your contracts, return your seed and have the dealer hold/store your inputs until next year or refund them minus a restock % of course. If all of that happens I can see you getting 85% on no plant on the 40%-50% no plant pays on what is it a 5 year or 10 year average of the field? Can't remember which program uses which average LOL. I don't do crop insurance or the programs. Planted beans July 14th last year and averages 74BPA With no inputs other than 2 fly over sprays and what the hogs deposit in the fields over winter. I always figured row croppers wore the ball caps because they like the sun burned red neck look :)
     
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  11. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

    So are they just flying chem planes to screw you up ??
    Never seen as many , 5 in a staggered row every few hours , my solar is cut in half , from all the crap clean , Im 100% harvest
    30 planes today . THEY are killing you and me THEY = ???
    Sloth
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
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  12. Thunder5Ranch

    Thunder5Ranch Monkey+++

    You know I used to think this was crazy talk but there is a constant criss cross of contrails in the sky now days and I am starting to wonder.................
     
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  13. Thunder5Ranch

    Thunder5Ranch Monkey+++

    Something I should have been clear about. 2012 corn prices on the farmer sell side peaked at $8.50 . I was speaking from a grain buyer perspective at the time and feed corn in several areas hit $12.00+ on the buyer side. The highest being when I bought a 2000 pound bulk bag of ground corn and it was $600 ($16.80 per bu) in July 2013 when corn reserves were getting low. There is a huge difference in what the elevator or contract pays the farmer and what they sell for. LOL 2013 was when I started converting rolling hayfields in to rolling bean/wheat rotation fields and worked out a grain swap deal with a corn farmer to trade the wheat and beans for corn at fair market price of each. That has worked out very good for both of us as I bank 145,000-150,000 pounds of corn at the elevator and have a ample reserve after feeding the hogs and chickens to keep banked or to sell. And feed cost are down to . 5.35 cents per pound with the supplement cost and small grinding fee at the elevator. The exspurts can pay that .25 to .30 cents per pound for their feed and talk about how much better their hogs are LOL and complaining about how much lower my prices are than theirs. When folks regularly tell me my $3 per pound pork steaks are 10x better than the competitors $11.00 per pound steaks are.... I must be doing something right. I have around $1.05 per pound invested in 1# of pork steaks (varies some hog to hog and year to year). Feed, processing and general farm over head. I call $1.90-$2.05 per pound profit good enough and a very respectable profit margin before taxes, while still giving customers a very fair retail price. And I am heading way off track again :)
     
  14. mysterymet

    mysterymet Monkey+++

    Contrails are not people trying to kill us.

    Contrail - Wikipedia
    The math for this reasoning works out... no tin foil required.
     
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  15. Salted Weapon

    Salted Weapon Monkey+++

    Russia said they will help, if we give them Alaska...........I think we should offer California...
     
  16. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart,Deadman Walking, Snow Monkey Moderator

    Nobody is going to give Alaska, to anybody.... Now Commiefornia is already a lost cause, so no great loss there.... but I would think Mexico would bid higher for it than Russia.... Maybe if we thru in Salem, Portland, and Seattle as frosting, on the Commiefornia Cake...
     
  17. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

    SORRY YOUR WRONG !!
    AME and a Pilot !!
    58K up is not a flight for #1 Carriers (air usa ) them are 37-49K up off datum .
    Contrail over Chemtrail
    You don't get it ! Never will .
    CON is condensation ! IT disappears , does not linger and spread !!

    You might learn what the SHTF !!
    Killing the bread basket and weather control as I guess , no real idea , but not nornal and HUGE MONEY !!

    Flight 42 (interweb girl )will never show the darts , only first class Carriers .
    Buddy pilots are saying the same thing around tables , but are NOT to speak of it !!!
    WTF
    Sloth
     
  18. mysterymet

    mysterymet Monkey+++

    F5DE4013-5A20-4EE0-B74D-CE3E190B1D63.
    We will have to agree to disagree. Others on here also have education and experience in engineering and aviation industries. Like that picture on the internet that people were claiming was a chemtrail plane when it was set up for flight testing. You have your proof and I have mine. Our government has done some crappy things and exposed many of us veterans to crappy stuff, however, I don’t think aircraft flying overhead are out to get me... pretty sure the picture above is harmless as well as entertaining.
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
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  19. Cruisin Sloth

    Cruisin Sloth Special & Slow

    Picture above is ?? whatever , NOT what Im on about .
    The planes are miles apart but staggered , Air canada , Alaska Airlines , plus many more are on Flight 42 , So am I when I flew , I'll post link .
    This IS NOT the NORM , was .MIL dude also back when I had hair & it was brown .. Rotary wing ^ maybe 11K' max , Fighters ^maybe 85 at a push , no trail from lowbypass till pull a vapor move , but as quick as it was there , GONE !
    S
     
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  20. Camelfilter

    Camelfilter State of Jefferson

    Pork prices may or may not be related to China culling a goodly portion of there hogs. Honestly do not know, but I would imagine a relationship in world market prices being affected over time due to such.

    An established US pork producer may be able to do very well, I would think, even with poor (high) feed pricing.

    Again tho, zero firsthand knowledge, just on reading the interwebs & suchly.
     
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