Great JC Refuge blog post

Discussion in 'General Survival and Preparedness' started by melbo, Sep 20, 2007.

  1. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Wednesday, September 19, 2007

    How to Watch Troubling Developments, Yet Stay Balanced and Cool

    [​IMG]Sometimes, I find it worthwhile to post here something I initially contribute elsewhere. In this case, I responded with the comments below in a thread at TB2K about someone's concern they had been fooled by those speculating about some pending doom that didn't materialize; and that he had lost credibility with those near to him when sharing his concern.

    There were several good responses in that pertinent discussion thread. These were my comments (edited a bit here for clarity):

    I've been watching and prepping for 30 years now (to varying degrees through that period). Early on, I was a bonafide, front-line Cold War observer, privy to almost daily feint and retreat bluff charges from the Warsaw Pact. That was literally point-blank, end-of-the-world stuff.

    It was very cool to have woken up every day through that, able to have learned from the previous day's hard lessons about power, fear, and many other things.

    Now as then, eventually, almost all sane and rational folks connected in some way to intelligence and/or preparedness come to these conclusions:

    1. Observing and planning is but a game. It has benefits in the real world but in only limited fashion.

    2. Those who make predictions about an extremely complex world do so after filtering info through their own singular inputs and preconceptions of what they think the world is about. No human being is capable of monitoring and analyzing all the variables out there today. In fact, even the largest, best equipped organizations can only guess at their own narrow slice of the future.

    3. Bottom line ... NO ONE among us can read the tea leaves or can fully decipher the code to tomorrow, period.

    4. When really bad stuff does happen, and it surely does, it is almost always a surprise.

    5. Adrenaline surges that come with false alarms are immensely counter-productive. Emotion does not help. One must learn to recognize and manage exposure to scaremongers if you are to truly be ready for anything that actually may happen.

    6. One of the most important objectives in a personal crisis preparedness plan is to keep a steady and even pace in all things related ... alert-wise, budget-wise, and also in how you share your perspective with others.

    7. Your credibility is one of your most important personal resources. It is up to you and you alone to manage it wisely. Never squander it by allowing your emotions to take charge and spill your worst fears--even, or especially, with your loved ones. There's much to be said about this:

    In the end--consider that you are a caretaker of your household's future. That entails a lot more than manning the watchtower and sounding alarms. Do what you need to do to ensure your household's safety and enhancing the probabilities for your loved ones' successes into whatever future there might be around the corner.

    Play it all strong and close to the vest. Then, when the barbarians are actually coming over the hill (if they ever do), you will still be able to sound that alarm and be believed. And you will hopefully also have the self-control honed through the years to respond appropriately instead of in panic
  2. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    Nicely said. [winkthumb]
  3. Minuteman

    Minuteman Chaplain Moderator Founding Member

    Good advice.
  4. Jonas Parker

    Jonas Parker Hooligan

    Well put and very true!
  5. duanet

    duanet Monkey+++

    As a lifelong prepper, mostly due to a grand father who was half Lakota and had seen firsthand what losing a war could entail and watched his relatives living on the reservation, I have long expected the big one. Necular war, whatever, but now it appears that the slow burn is having a much greater impact on my life and your viewpoint is becoming ever more valuable. You can scream about the atomic war and "prepare", but what can you do with your "life savings" if you are 70, the stock market is a ponzi scheme, the dollar is falling apart, the banks are paying 3% on your IRA's, the government is saying that we never promised you social security, and the company you worked for for 30 years tells you that your "lifetime pension" has been transfered to a fixed amount annuity and they are no longer involved.
    We have a home that is debt free and the local and state government view it as their own private cash cow and if you can't afford the $4500 a year taxes on the home you paid $12000 for 35 years ago you should sell it and move, or we will sell it for you. 30 years ago they said I could live well on $5000 a year and we now pay that for our "supplements" to medicare. A lot of what I used to think of as "prepping" has now became needed for day to day survival. The big "collapse" of society may or may not happen, but I can guarntee that the little personal collapses will happen to most of us. Lose your job, get sick, have a personal disaster like , fire, flood, huricane, company closes up, they change the rules for your pension, and we all can add a dozen more from personal experiences. I am very open for any suggestions on how to handle these "minor' problems that totally destroy your life beyond a strong religious belief that at least helps you cope.

    The longer I live, the more valuable frugal living and being as self reliant as possible becomes. It is difficult as the major "growth" areas in the present economy are in nursing homes, medical care, manageing personal pension plans etc. Put it bluntly, farming the elderly has replaced farming the land for employment for a good portion of the present economy.
  6. melbo

    melbo Hunter Gatherer Administrator Founding Member

    Good points duanet,
    I'm on the edge of total self employed financial collapse here.
    I went for high risk high yield but even those who opted for low risk low yield retirements and pensions are getting screwed too. There is no such thing as security in a job anymore.

    No one can see what is going to happen in the coming months or yrs but I am not just being pessimistic by preparing for the worst. Anyone sitting on FRNs right now might want to convert them to something else...
  7. monkeyman

    monkeyman Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    My thoughts on the preping for personal colapses are largely the same as mine for general collapse in that the basics are to be as debt free as possible, try to have some basic marketable skills that can be done part time on your own or as barter (like butchering, small engine repair, etc) and to have some dirt under you so you can be self sustaining. With even just 4-5 acres you can have rabbits and some chickens and a few goats as well as a large garden (as long as you keep the critters out of it) and can feed your self from your own place as well as doing some truck farming if you want/need to and hopefuly make enouph there to at least cover taxes on the dirt.
  8. Sojourner

    Sojourner Silverback

    Very well said. Disasters come in all sizes and shapes. We are not where we were two years ago, but the preps sure did come in handy and kept us going for a year. We geared up, and are well on our way to getting back to "normal" for us. Thanks for the refreshers.
  9. NVBeav

    NVBeav Monkey+++

    I'm not sure why I've convinced myself to post this, but I hope it makes sense.

    Sometimes you have to take a stand in the face of the unknown regardless of the consequences. There are certain people that you can't kick out or turn away (e.g. family) when the Schumer or Shrillary HTF, and you've got to do everything you can to get them prepared. It's in your best interest.

    Ezekiel 33:1-9 talks about a watchman who is held responsible for warning his people about danger approaching.

    Matt 16:1-4 talks about seeing the signs of the times.

    A proper warning to your "people" without clueing them in or detailing your own preparation could save a large amount of your food supply later. One bucket of wheat could be 240 meals: 80 days for 3 people or 24 days for 10... a big difference.

    It's in your best interest to get them started right away -- let them see for themselves that "the sky is red and threatening".

    If they laugh and scoff now, perhaps they'll live humbly with you later -- unless you're gone.
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