High Gas Prices? You aint seen nothing yet.

No relief in sight.

Investors bet on $100 a barrel oil until 2016

By Javier Blas in London
Published: March 16 2008 22:02 | Last updated: March 16 2008 22:02

Crude oil futures prices for delivery until 2016 have surged above $100 a barrel as investors bet that oil costs will remain high in the long term even if they weaken in the short because the impact of the US economic slowdown.

Every futures contract until December 2016 finished last week above $100 a barrel for the first time after a strong rally in long-dated futures prices. The Nymex December 2016 future settled on Friday at $103.59 a barrel
The surge in long-dated prices comes as the International Energy Agency, the western countries’ oil watchdog, meets financial, trading, producing, refining and economic experts on Monday to discuss the roots of the current price rise.

The meeting signals policymakers’ growing concerns about the rise in the oil price from about $50 a barrel in early 2007 to a record high of $111 last week.

Those concerns will be reinforced by the recent surge in forward prices, analysts said. Long-dated oil futures have outperformed spot prices during the past six months. The five-year forward price has risen 45.3 per cent since September, while the spot price has risen by 38.1 per cent.
Harry Tchilinguirian of BNP Paribas said the recent move reflected a shift in sentiment. "Long-dated prices, a proxy for the cost of new oil supply, are still high and volatile and continue to reflect the ingrained supply-side concerns in market sentiment – not just for this year, but beyond," he said.

Among those concerns, analysts said, is rising inflation, increases in taxation in producing countries and a lack of access to reserves controlled by national oil companies in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela and Mexico.

Kevin Norrish, of Barclays Capital, which recently increased its 2015 oil price forecast to $135 a barrel, said rising inflation meant the cost of extracting oil from the Canadian tar sands had risen by 300 per cent since 2001 – a steeper increase than that of oil prices over the same period.
Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs warned that the need for further investments was "likely [to] lead to explosive prices in the next couple of years, with oil prices potentially spiking toward $175 a barrel".

The rise in long-dated prices is making it more difficult for industrial consumers, such as airlines and utilities, to hedge their fuel costs using futures as they can no longer take advantage of much lower forward prices to secure cheaper supplies.

 

In case you missed it in another thread. I was informed today that diesel is being rationed at the refineries in South Texas. The suppliers who deliver to our Drilling Rigs (which use several thousand gallons a week) have informed us to schedule deliveries as far in advance as possible due to thier being limited to only so many loads per week.

 

Time to hire security for the fuel tanks, rationing like that will create opportunities. They hiring shotguns for the tankers yet?

 

uhht oooh never thought about bumopping a tanker....Mad Max days ahead.

 

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Prices of most wages are flat or dropping (Work is harder to find for piece workers and
subs), prices of things you have to have are going up, (gas and broccoli), while the prices of toys or other things you don't really need are coming down as those above are trying to sell those toys to buy broccoli and gas.

Great position to be in if you work in areas that are expanding at the expense of those most hurt. Not a dig at minuteman, just an observation after QS and I talked over dinner the other night. I make sure to stock extra food and necessities for my neighbors and future neighbors.

Edit: I couldn't have picked a better time to transition out of Real Estate and into Energy.

 

U.S. gasoline prices to rise despite slowdown: EIA
Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:44pm EDT
By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Drivers should not be fooled into thinking a weak economy and less gasoline use will help lower pump prices any time soon, the federal Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
"Even though U.S. gasoline demand has been lower than year-ago levels so far this year, EIA still expects that rising gasoline demand over the next few months will still drive retail prices higher," the agency said in its weekly review of the oil market.

The national price for regular, self-service gasoline hit a record $3.39 a gallon this week, according to the EIA, the Energy Department's forecasting arm.

"This year's upcoming spring and summer are expected to see retail gasoline prices rise even further from current high levels," the agency said.

While high crude oil prices have been mostly to blame for pushing gasoline costs to record levels, increasing seasonal gasoline demand will likely raise retail pump prices to $3.50 a gallon and above, even if gasoline use is down from year-ago levels, the EIA said.

"The simple fact that more and more gasoline will be used over the next few months will probably be enough to cause retail gasoline prices to increase, even if crude oil prices begin declining, as EIA is currently projecting," the agency said.

The switch-over by refineries to making less-polluting gasoline for the summer is more costly and will also help to raise gasoline prices, the agency said.

The EIA said, if crude oil prices stay above an average $104 a barrel in May and June, consumers could pay more than $3.60 a gallon for gasoline.
U.S. oil prices topped a record $115 a barrel on Wednesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

High gasoline prices have become a bigger issue in the U.S. presidential race, with Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, proposing this week to suspend for the summer the federal excise tax of 18.4 cents levied on every gallon of fuel sold.