How Much Advance Notice Is There Usually to Know a Storm including Hurricane/Tornado Will Be Coming?

Apparently a lot of people there waited till today to evacuate and are having trouble getting out of Dodge! Why would they wait so long and at this point maybe they would have been safer at home!

 

Because the track of a hurricane is extremely uncertain outside of 24 to 48 hours of landfall (too many variables can affect the path and a shift of a few degrees one way or another today could mean a different landfall/affected area in 72 hours) storms can shift radically, sometimes hundreds of miles. While human beings are good at predicting with some certainty what weather is going to do, we are still not perfect, and little variations in weather systems can cause significantly different outcomes.

Take Hurricane Rita as an example. all the forecast models showed it ramming into Houston, yet, when the storm made landfall, it was in Louisiana. Houston barely had more than wind gusts of 50 miles per hour. (EDIT My ex-father-in-law evacuated during Rita and got caught in a Cat 5 storm in Baton Rouge. He lived in Houston, and his house did not see even so much as a drop of rain during that hurricane.

In the event of a hurricane, if you wait to evacuate, like myself, you can make an informed decision as to what you are going to do, where you are going to go. Even in a state as narrow and constrained as Florida, heading east or west (rather than north like everybody else) a few hundred miles can mean the difference between Catagory 3 hurricane winds and Catagory 1 or even just tropical storm force winds.

 

Very true @Falcon15. I was waiting to see if I was going to have to grab my uncle and drive down to Orange Beach to board up the house there. Thankfully for us that isn't going to be needed. Like you said, sometimes we have no choice but to "wait n see" a bit in order to better know what course of action needs to be taken.
Best of Luck to you on your Evac!

 

OK, ladies and gentlemen, here is my take away so far from Irma:
I decided early last week to wait until tonight (Saturday night) to decide if I was evacuating or not. This is because the "CONE OF DEATH" is actually and technically called the "cone of uncertainty". When the cone is literally hundreds of miles wide, there are too many variables in play. You have no real idea where the main portion of the storm will impact.

I went to bed last night and the forecast was that the entire state of Florida would experience hurricane force winds and conditions. This morning, I wake up to a westward shift and my region, the central coastal region of Florida, is expected to experience Tropical Storm conditions. Something I can easily weather in my RV, and will unless conditions worsen, then I will get into solid shelter.

As the day wears on, this is solidifying into the actual forecast, not just educated guesses.

That being said, I waited to evacuate just for this reason. Nearly 6.5 million people in South Florida, from Monroe, Dade, and Broward counties have been evacuating since Wednesday. There are only 4 major roads that traverse the North/South of Florida. They are bumper to bumper and moving at an average speed of 16 miles per hour. Gasoline, food, hotels, and basic supplies along these corridors are nearly non-existent. If I were to have evacuated two days ago, I would now be stranded on the highway or Turnpike.

However, when Andrew came through South Florida in 1992, I waited until late in the day on the 23rd to evacuate. There was literally no traffic. I made it to Silver Springs, Florida in record time. Why? Because by that time most people had said "screw it" and gotten off the roadways to shelter in hotels or shelters. Past experience, and being a student of human nature served me well then. It has not changed much now.

The biggest take away is the SHEER RIDICULOUS SENSATIONALISM that the various news and weather outlets push on the unsuspecting public and create mass hysteria and panic. Does anyone recall the Orson Welles "War of the Worlds" broadcast fiasco? Educate yourself. Go to nontraditional news and weather sources to get your information. Decide what is right for yourself.

I will try to do my regularly scheduled "In Case Of Emergency" show on Radio KAOS tomorrow. If I have internet connection, expect the show. I will focus on these very points and more. Thank you all for your concern and I urge you all...stop relying on Mainstream Media and Commercialized "Weather" reporting.