Iran sanctions prelude to oil war?

Discussion in 'Peak Oil' started by ColtCarbine, Feb 26, 2012.

  1. ColtCarbine

    ColtCarbine Monkey+++ Founding Member

    I'm not trying to be a fear monger and think the sky is falling.

    PressTV - Iran sanctions prelude to oil war?

    Iran sanctions prelude to oil war?

    Oil Prices have increased again. This time after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its recent report on Iran’s nuclear activities.

    The world economy especially that of the West is indeed doing badly enough without the help of increased oil prices that have recently settled at more than USD 125 a barrel. And it seems to fix the by the day worsening situation, the Western countries are doing nothing but to aggravate it.

    Also last week, the prices increased when Iran announced it will not sell oil to France and Britain and the European countries that will not sign 3-5 contracts with Iran’s oil sector.

    Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, says the move would send the United States into another recession, with gas prices hitting recently more than USD 5 a gallon.

    In fact, what is threatening more than ever the very livelihood of ordinary citizens in Europe and America these days is not a nuclear Iran but leaders who have started a lose-lose game against an energy-rich Iran.

    The idea of sanctions, economic and more recently oil and banking, against Iran by the US and its allies is, at least on the surface, to cripple the movement of the country towards accessing nuclear know-how and as the West claims a nuclear weapon eventually.

    The IAEA, as the international body watching over the nuclear activities of different countries, often says there are ambiguities regarding the Iranian program but it has also time and again attested to the peacefulness of the country’s nuclear work.

    The Los Angeles Times said on Thursday that a consensus report by 16 US intelligence agencies shows Iran has not even tried to build any nuclear weapons and that there has been no diversion in its atomic energy program.

    Now the question is why some countries would intend to jeopardize their own economies at such a difficult time by the role they willingly and at times, as the case is for some European countries, unwillingly take on and sanction Iran without hard evidence? How effective will these sanctions be? Why would some kill Iranian nuclear scientists? Why is the country threatened with a ‘military option’? And will this ‘option’ guarantee cheap oil for the West?

    Top Iranian oil officials say some European countries have already started negotiations to buy Iranian oil and countries like Japan and South Korea are seeking waivers from oil sanctions. Others like India and China, both giant spenders on oil, had from the beginning said they will not abide by these anti-Iran oil sanctions, with New Delhi even increasing its imports from Iran. This brings seriously under question the effectiveness of such moves as an oil embargo. Indeed, what had the US expected from countries which, unlike itself, produce very little oil if any?

    Iranian bank sector sanctions, analyst say, have a great chance of falling flat as well. Iran’s oil money in Chinese banks, for instance, can turn into the everyday commodities the Iranian nation needs and Turkish banks may also be very helpful in doing transactions with the European Union (EU) on behalf of Tehran.

    However, the question of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is without a doubt the most controversial. The fact that who will dare taking a step to this end perplexes everyone both in the Middle East and the US.

    Israel as the only, unchecked yet proven, atomic weapon owner in the region may be the number one culprit for a possible yet not very likely military strike on Iran to save itself as it claims from ‘an Iran threat’. A ‘threat’ truly hypothetical in comparison with what Israel has actually been doing to the existence of Palestinians.

    Any Israeli strike, Iran has vowed, will entail a crushing response. A response that will, by some chance, drag the US as Tel-Aviv’s number one ally to a new Middle East war. People in the US, bearing the brunt of the economic hardships the other two US wars in the region (Iraq and Afghanistan) have inflicted on them, will not be on the side of their government as some of them once used to be in 2001. They have had enough of a decade brimful of false reports of the imaginative Iraqi WMDs, of WikiLeaks revelations, of their children returning home in body bags, of losing homes to foreclosures, of having to fight under a Republican Bush and a Democrat Obama, no matter who they elect.

    People like former New York mayor Rudi Giuliani, who say President Obama is not tough enough against Iran and pushes for a war, had better remember that as the Big Apple mayor in 9/11 of 2001, all he did was touring the city and introducing the relief workers of the tragic day!

    For Israel, though, an Iran attack, aside from triggering a deadly Iran response, will be very risky. More than a thousand miles flying in unknown skies to penetrate the Iranian nuclear facilities located in the heart of a vast country means refueling for Israeli jets in the skies other than that of their own. Besides, if one can imagine that some of them can escape the Iranian air defense on the invasion phase, what are they going to do when they want to leave? Iranian military officials answer that question--They won’t leave!

    An Iran war gives hell to its perpetrators and the whole region. It will be Tel-Aviv’s most dangerous game and a hard sell for the US.

    Perhaps what Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has recently said may be one possible scenario to address these questions. Putin says Western powers are trying to change the ‘Iranian regime’ under the cover of fighting nuclear proliferation.

    Regime change, defusing a nuclear threat or whatever excuse there may be for the West’s anti-Iran stance, the fact of the matter is that things are moving in a direction that will bear no fruit for the US and its allies.

    Threats and sanctions together with a lack of constructive talks with no attached colonial-era-style preconditions have left a lot to be desired as far the handling of the current situation is concerned.

    What the world needs today after a decade of the West’s adventurism is trust and dialogue and no more death, hunger, homelessness and confrontation.
  2. Tikka

    Tikka Monkey+++

    Maybe not war but definitely the prelude to skyrocketing prices at the pumps.
    Seawolf1090 likes this.
  3. ColtCarbine

    ColtCarbine Monkey+++ Founding Member

    Iran refuses to deliver 500k-barrel oil shipment to Greece


    Sun Feb 26, 2012 12:43PM GMT

    Iran has refused to deliver a 500,000-barrel shipment of oil to Greece in response to EU oil sanctions imposed against the country.

    According to a report by Fars News Agency on Sunday, oil tankers that had come to transfer 500,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil to Hellenic refining complex in Greece were forced to return empty-handed after the Islamic Republic refused to deliver the shipment.

    European Union foreign ministers agreed on January 23 to ban oil imports from Iran and to freeze the assets of the Iranian Central Bank across the EU. The sanctions will become fully effective on July 1, 2012, to give EU member states enough time to adjust to the new conditions and find alternative crude oil supplies.

    The EU decision followed the imposition of similar sanctions by Washington on Iranian energy and financial sectors on New Year’s Eve which seek to punish other countries for buying Iran oil or dealing with the its central bank.

    The Senate Banking Committee on February 2 adopted a package of tougher new sanctions targeting Iran's national oil and tanker firms, authorizing the US government to impose a ban on foreign companies that buy oil from the National Iranian oil Company (NIOC) or have oil shipped by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC).

    On February 16, Iran stopped oil exports to British and French firms in line with the decision to end crude exports to six European states in response to sanctions imposed on the country’s energy sector.

    The announcement caused a major spike in oil prices pushing the price of crude to over 122 dollars a barrel.

    Iranian officials have repeatedly said that the country has no problem in exporting and selling crude oil to its customers.

    Iran announced on February 21 that it will only continue exporting oil to the European Union if the member states give a guarantee to pay the price and sign medium- and long-term oil purchase contracts.

    Greece has been in recession since 2009 despite austerity cuts and receiving bailout funds. The country has the highest debt burden in proportion to the size of its economy.
  4. ColtCarbine

    ColtCarbine Monkey+++ Founding Member

    I'm not trying to be a fear monger and probably should have stated that. I did not care for the title myself but it has affected the price at the pump.
  5. Suerto

    Suerto Monkey+

    Ever notice how oil producing nations that sell oil for something other than greenbacks, ends up getting overthrown?

    Just something I've noticed in the recent years.
    ColtCarbine likes this.
  6. Falcon15

    Falcon15 Falco Peregrinus

    Iran is not a prelude to an oil war. Iran is but another chapter in the ongoing war for control of oil producing nations.
    Seawolf1090 and larryinalabama like this.
  7. Tikka

    Tikka Monkey+++

    As we are seeing it already it isn't fear mongering. Now, we pay for 3 years of no drilling and no pipelines.
  8. larryinalabama

    larryinalabama Monkey++

    In My Humble Opinion OIL IS WORTH FIGHTING FOR..........just saying
  9. Suerto

    Suerto Monkey+

    If western powers prop up a friendly regime, do you think it will lessen the hardship that you pay at the pump?

    I don't think it will, as we do have 2 recent examples to refer that model to.. Iraq and Libya now have friendly regimes selling oil in dollars to westerners...

    American refineries export products to the highest bidder (china, india, Europe) pays more than America.

    Nationalizing it won't get you much better relief either, I lived in Mexico in 09' working in the oil industry, an industry that is government run/owned, guess what, they pay more at the pump for the same quality of fuel that we did at the time.

    American pump price will only go down if there is a glut of supply (globally) on the market. Oil can be transported, and the oil companies around the world are producing for a profit (even the nationally owned ones), and they will ship it to the highest bidder, in order to maximize said profit.

    Natural gas on the other hand, is a commodity that is not readily shipped globally.. That and coal, is very large quantities of an energy source in America..

    I once felt that we should goto war, to procure our energy survival... But after seeing, that it has not elleviated any hardships on our people's, I have changed my position on the matter.

    Because all we are doing is killing our patriotic youth for profiteers.

    So we deplete the patriots, increase the voting bloc of the entitlement, create a further tax burden on ourselves (war costs money), and help the wealthy profit even more all at once.

    And still have to pay high gas prices at the pump at the end of the day..

  10. larryinalabama

    larryinalabama Monkey++

    All IM saying is without oil the USA SHUTS DOWN.....
  11. Suerto

    Suerto Monkey+

    Those who can afford it will always have oil, it just won't always be cheap.. Or as "inexpensive" as we want it to be.

    I agree with you to an extent, I don't think the USA will shutdown, per se, atleast, not overnight..

    As fuel costs increase, the middle class will shrink, as more and more people of every class have to spend more on fuel and the knock on effects (did you know that something like 40% of crop nutrients is derived from petrochemicals.. Or something like that)

    Anyway, as more and more individuals spending ability shrinks, they will become more eligible and reliant on social programs, less people paying taxes, more voting to bleed the turnip dry, etc, etc, etc.

    We have already witnessed this from the 08' burst.. Bubble, crash..

    There are parts of the country, that is attempting to move its dependence from oil to natty gas or propane, because it's an abundant source in thier area.. (Oklahoma, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, parts of Texas, Wyoming, etc, etc)

    There's oil and gas in Alabama too Larry, I've drilled a couple of wells there.. ;)
    ColtCarbine and larryinalabama like this.
  12. Cephus

    Cephus Monkey+++ Founding Member

    Well Suerto has a lot of good points ,here in WV they are drilling at an alarming rate for the methane and NG in the area and building pipelines to the east .Where they will refine and take all out of it what they can. I promise you they will not lower the price of NG because it costs a pretty penny to get it and the guys doing the job aren't cheap. There are some around that don't want this done but the big companies are spending money hand over fist for the right of ways and drill sights . So you can make of that what you will !!
  13. Suerto

    Suerto Monkey+

    Actually cephus, natty gas futures fell $2 back in nov, because they have been more effective at drilling and retrieving than the speculators thought. The prices are not "set" by the oil companies, which few people understand..

    Oil and gas is traded as a commodity on an exchange market, just like beef, cotton, wheat, sugar, etc, etc.

    It's like an auction, except, you have players betting that the price will go higher, or lower, in a given time.. And then you also have researchers attempting to set the "starting bid" on anticipated future events that may reduce supply, increase demand, or vice versa. This "pricing" can also be influenced if a bunch of people begin bidding on the same cow (demand), or if a bunch of people start trying to sell thier cows all at once (supply) at any given time, and how much cows are left in the fields and if farmer joe can get them to market or the butcher on time for the wife to go shopping in the morning..

    Natty gas drilling is calculated on $2.50-4/market unit, if it falls less than that, they begin scaling back drilling, as, it becomes unprofitable.. Chesapeake scaled back 8%.. Market analysts said we were reclaiming 2million units a day when we only require 1million, so a reduction of 15% of drilling over a years time, will bring our needs back to a $4/unit demand.

    Unless we have a cold snap, which we did, shortly after the price dropped to $1.something, it rebounded to $2.something within days..

    Now, all of this will go out the window if congress ever passes T. Boon Pickens natty gas initiative, then it will skyrocket. and I suspect that is why we have been drilling so fervently in the east, even with all the haters, unions, regulations, and hoops that the oil industry has to jump through, just to drill. You don't have any of those issues, west of the Appalachians.. (much friendlier hydrocarbon retrieving environment out west, I have yet to go work in the east, but have many friends who have, and who are there right now)...;)
    ColtCarbine, Cephus and Gator 45/70 like this.
  14. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    When you get a few minutes, go to The Natural Gas Forums - Index where there is a subforum for WVa. Prowl around and see what else is going on with ng. Here in the Marcellus region, there is a down trend in drilling since the supply of ng is very high these days. It takes around $4million to drill a well, and more to get pipelines in place to move the gas to market. No pipelines are in my area, waiting on gas demand to go up. I think you will see a scaling back of drilling activity in your nekka da woods as the drilling contractors complete the contracts currently on the books.

    I'm pretty sure WVa gas is "wet" which has a higher value than the "dry" gas we have up here. The liquid portions of the product are higher value these days.

    "Dry" gas doesn't need a lot of post processing ("refining") just adjustments for heat content and adding the odorant. "Wet" gas has to have the liquid fraction taken out before the gas can be marketed.
  15. Suerto

    Suerto Monkey+

    Cool link, Cept for the link at the top of the page raving about the evil fracking agenda.. ;)
  16. Cephus

    Cephus Monkey+++ Founding Member

    There is 11 sites within 15 miles of my place and more that are being prepped to move the rigges in place .You want to hear some noise ,when they hit the seam and set fire to the blow off .It can be heard for miles and lights up the sky like Vegas !! You're right about the wet gas ,we called it drip gas and used to put what was called a dryer in place and bleed it off every week or so. Ya could run your car on it for awhile ,but it would tear your engine up fast !!
  17. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    Us hillbillies got smart real fast when that website went up an the word got out. A few people were taken to the cleaners early in the leasing process. The site is generally credited for saving others a bundle.

    We don't have many (if any) NIMBY members, but there are some libs here in northern Appalachia. (Mostly pastoral wannabes from NYC and NJ.

    My place is around midway just off a line between two pads that are right at 7/10 mile apart. Eventually, there will be 6, or maybe more wells on each. So far the pad to the east has 2 and the rigs are long gone. The other one is permitted for 4 and I have to say I'll be glad when they get done. The noise is NOT intrusive, but it's there.

    The pipeline, so they say is coming. So's Christmas. :D
  18. Suerto

    Suerto Monkey+

    Yeah, we had a lot of that (people getting shafted off the land and royalties) back in the 30's-50's in south louisiana, back then, few cajuns spoke English, let alone read it.

    That's the nature of the beast, or used to be.. When a drilling boom moves to a new area, for the first year many people get low-balled, because they don't know any better, but they take the money and are happy about it at the time.

    The pipeline is coming, I assure you. My neighbor (who's from Florida, but lives here in OKC) is a pipeline welder, and he did a 6mos stint in PA and got wiped out (his rig - truck, welding machine, equipment) in the floods last year. He said they need people to work, but can't find or keep any locals willing to work oilfield schedules.

    Same story for the rigs, poeple just aren't interested in working 12hr days for half the year (work 14on/14off schedule) for really good pay.

    If y'all truely want to stop the drilling, organize a union protest/strike/legislation..

    Watch how fast the drilling stops, leaves, and stays gone.

    They do that in 3rd world countries, block the roads and protest, and the oil company pays the villagers (or narco-terrorists, or militants) and then go back to work.

    I've seen it done in northern Canada too, the Indians would do it as well.

    All them shenanigans get calculated into the cost of business as well, and get passed on to the consumer at the pump..
    Just FYI
  19. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    Yeesh. Are we far enough off topic yet? (Monkeys are famous for thread diversion.)
  20. Suerto

    Suerto Monkey+

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