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Price likely to get worse

Discussion in 'General Survival and Preparedness' started by monkeyman, May 9, 2008.

  1. monkeyman

    monkeyman Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    I just figured would post an observation for any interested. If you are wanting to stock up on grains or flour and such I would say now would be the time to do it.

    Im not positive what the weather has been doing else whaere but I live in western MO (about 50-75 miles from Kansas as the crow flies) and aside from cattle a BIG portion of the land around the area grows corn, soy beans and some wheat. Im just guessing that the region is haveing similar weather to us and between MO, KS, Iowa and Nebraska is where most of the countries grain comes from (at least a REAL significant amount of it). Around here we have been haveing rain so consistantly all spring that its been to wet to get our garden in yet but hadnt thought much about it untill was rideing to go mow today and realized that nearly every field we passed (easily 10s of thousands of acres worth) either had grass starting to grow out of unturned soil not plowed yet or stubs of last years corn still sticking up. These fields SHOULD already be planted and have new plants comeing up. We have a good chance of rain a couple more times before the first of the week.

    If the crops dont go in fairly soon then its going to start to really hurt the harvest or at the very least make for a late harvest thats still likely to be lower than it should be.

    I havent been hearing this brought up in news and so on yet but if Im correct and if the weather dont break real soon then it probably wont be long before commodity traders come to the same conclusion and the prices for current supplies go up to follow futures takeing the price you will pay up along with them even more than just the increases due to the rest of the economy, ESPECIALY when combined with the increased demand for corn (and the use of ground to grow it in) for ethanol due to increased fuel prices and the increased input costs for fuel and fertalizers that the farmers will have to recover come harvest time and it all goes to the consumer.

    Just a heads up that may bare consideration...or maybe Im just seeing indicators that arent there, who knows.
  2. FalconDance

    FalconDance Neighborhood Witch

    It's a little early for corn to be planted still - just past frost date but not by much. Farmers have a bit of time to get into the fields, but I agree planting could be delayed - not really too much of a problem unless it goes on for weeks on end.

    Wheat has yet to be ready for harvest (to my understanding) in KS - it's still in the 'heading' stage (as of last week) which means it has a little ways to go and hopefully Nature drying up a bit. Australia, who has had the mother of all droughts for several years, may be experiencing a bumper crop at long last, it has been reported recently.

    Right now there is NO true SHORTAGE of grains. That's right, folks. The only way to construe a shortage right now is to look at the difference between what people have gathered (because of the govt and media telling us there was a grave shortage) and the gap between what's released for sale and what's due to be harvested.
  3. FalconDance

    FalconDance Neighborhood Witch

    I should add, KS is looking at a bumper crop of wheat IF the dreaded rust bacteria/virus (can't remember which it is) doesn't strike as the govt recently stated it would. Now, nothing I've read that was non-govt or -trader points to this toxic infection being a problem this year, but ........ excuse me whilst I put on my beanie ....... if it would drive the price up some more for the traders and export to have a massive shortage, how likely do you think this infection would just happen to show up after all?

  4. monkeyman

    monkeyman Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    I just know that most of the time they seem to at LEAST have the fields laready worked and ready for seed by now and by the second week of May would normaly be at least SOME of the crops starting to show in the fields. On the ride to Sedalia the other day (back way and about 30-40 miles) I dont think I saw hardly any fields that had even been touched yet.

    It wouldnt be impacting yet and may not at all but just figured that if they dont get it in soon then could be less available this fall than usual and raise prices further and faster as it aproaches. Either way, seriously doubt the price will go down, like most things, they have found that even if they complain folks will still buy it for more so especialy at retail they arent likely to go back down on it whne they could just have more profit.
  5. FalconDance

    FalconDance Neighborhood Witch

    This morning's paper - Dept of Ag reports that the US "is gearing up for its biggest wheat crop in 10 years".

  6. jimy

    jimy Monkey++

    My folks live in Ontario, the corn has been in the ground there for weeks already. Dad said that it's shaping up to be a super year. He should know. He's the manager of the Grain elevators in our area and he's been a farmer for his entire life. Great outlook there at least.
  7. monkeyman

    monkeyman Monkey+++ Moderator Emeritus Founding Member

    Cool, glad what I was seeing isnt wide spread. Just had me thinking since so few had been turned and still had the rows of last years stubs. Apparently just a more localized thing.

    So at least only have to contend with the price jumps from the falling dollars.
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