So It's Better to Leave the City on a Bike than Stay in Your Stocked City Home During TEOTWAWKI?

Discussion in 'General Survival and Preparedness' started by ED GEiN, Feb 28, 2017.


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  1. ED GEiN

    ED GEiN Monkey++

    Just want to verify, if the entire US is facing SHTF and one lives in the City in a fully stocked residence to sustain them for a year, they are still better off leaving the City by bicycle with just the clothes off their back to go to an out of the way area and take their chances. This is assuming that you don't have a "second home" in an out of the way place. Anyone disagree with that assessment?
     
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  2. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    To stay or leave is a question that only YOU can answer, based completely on YOUR evaluation of the situation in your AO. Again, as has been mentioned before to you, there are ZERO cook book solutions that will work for everyone,. every time. So no, it is NOT a verifiable fact that leaving on a bike is better than staying. And yes, I disagree with your assessment.

    I recommend that you stop asking hypotheticals, and do some reading before asking.
     
  3. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    From a practical standpoint, as a single Person, with NO Backup, you are likely Toast, either way.... In the city, once there is NO Law Enforcement, and the Bad Guys figure out they are free to do whatever they chose, they will eventually get you.... and if you Bug Out, with NO Place to go, you had better be the Luckiest Dude on the planet, and find an outfit that will take you in, to help support their group. As a single Person, without ANY Weapons Training, to speak of, You are a detriment to their Outfit.... Another Mouth to feed, that has to be protected, but not able to share in the defense of the Group.... What SkillSets do you bring to the Group? Medical, Engineering, Construction, Mechanical, these are skillsets that will be in demand, for any group. Any Group MAY be inclined to take in a Stranger, If they can show proficiency in one of the named Skillsets, but if you are just another wondering Yahoo, the chances are VERY Slim...
     
  4. ED GEiN

    ED GEiN Monkey++

    Sorry I deal in hypotheticals as in modern American Society the entire United States has never been in SHTF situations.
     
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  5. ED GEiN

    ED GEiN Monkey++

    Good points to ponder
     
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  6. Gator 45/70

    Gator 45/70 Monkey+++

    If you stay in LA your going to die
     
  7. 3M-TA3

    3M-TA3 Cold Wet Monkey Site Supporter++

    If you choose to stockpile within a major metro area you will be lucky to leave on foot. Find a bug out location and stockpile there. Any time things seem dicey, take a short vacation to your bug out. If the balloon goes up while you are in town, get the hell out of Dodge while every one else is confused.

    A better plan is to relocate to an area that has a safer potential and stockpile there while you get to know your new neighbors. Better to take a pay cut and live than stick around in LA and wait for the hammer to drop. LA isn't anything special worth dieing for - When I lived in Eastern Idaho I could get anything there I could in LA except for air pollution. The movie that would best describe your current plan is called "To Live And Die Quickly In LA".
     
  8. tacmotusn

    tacmotusn Mosquito Sailor Site Supporter+

    I would hazard to say the civil war might be as close to shtf as the USA has seen. aprox 1 million military dead out of a total population of aprox 31 million. Don't know how many civilian were collateral damage or died from starvation, disease, or whatever as a result of the turmoil, (such as Sherman's scorched earth march thru the south.) Difference was people for the most parts understood a can do spirit and ethics, work and or moral were of a higher caliber. There aren't that many people who understand self reliance and self sufficiency today. Things today will escalate out of control much faster.
     
  9. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    You missed the point entirely. There is enough SHTF fiction written that covers just about all the scenarios you care to consider. Read some; it appears you are looking to be spoon fed what to do in which case, and the fictional accounts will point you in the right direction. Try "Enemies, Foreign and Domestic." Then go read "Lights Out." You might also wade thru Keith's thread, just for a side light.
     
  10. UncleMorgan

    UncleMorgan I eat vegetables. My friends are not vegetables.

    The only way to accurately answer a hypothetical question is through hindsight. Better to just question reality.

    I do that a lot.
     
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  11. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    This is what I think will happen in L.A.
    An earth quake and possibly a tsunami will happen. Everyone will be caught off guard.
    Everyone who can leave will be trying to leave.
    Some of the the bridges and overpasses will be destroyed.
    Everyone is going to be stuck in a traffic jam of biblical proportions.
    No one gets out no one gets in but by air, because remember that tsunami turned the port in to unrecognizable twisted piles of burning scrap metal.
    The run ways at the air port are damaged by the ground shifting so large fixed wing craft are not coming or going.
    This isn't what I think might happen, this is what is going to happen eventually. There is nothing hypothetical about it.
    That's why I maintain a minimum one time zone distance from L.A. at all time.
    Yes I have been to L.A., 2 or 3 times and didn't like anything I saw.
     
  12. Motomom34

    Motomom34 Monkey+++

    I would stay. I tried to find how many apartments were in the LA area but could not. Lets say you are in a semi-decent area. It will take the gangs a month plus to work their way there. I just cannot believe I am the only person that thinks someone could survive in an urban area. It is a numbers game. You are one person out of millions plus you are living in one dwelling out of millions. The chance of a gang finding your apartment in the first few weeks of SHTF are low. Your neighbors, some will leave and some will stay. The ones that cannot leave are poor, elderly or the ones waiting for FEMA to show.
     
  13. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Yeah, I wouldn't touch that question... And, I think @oil pan 4 touch on what is a very high possibility given your location...the Cascadian Fault and the San Andreas Fault which are now known to correlate, triggering each other so... So, let me give you a scenario and you tell us what you are going to do.... The Cascadian Fault finally gives way. It's a monster and overdue by 70 years (there is hard evidence to back that up). It triggers the Andreas so now the entire West Coast is gone. Sounds Science Fiction only because modern man hasn't been around long but this is highly possible. I do know that Oregon and Washington really do not have any Early Warning for the tsunami that will follow, don't know about California, but more death and destruction on the way... The US economic will now take a huge hit as California's (major economic player) went into the toilet along with Seattle, Portland, etc... Internationally, this would be an prime moment to actually hurt the 'Great Satan', kick her when she's down, and that could be done numerous ways from selling off our Bonds to Putin pushing westward while were occupied. The economics of something like this would be horrendous, devastating. And, now you have a super-duper SHTF which easily could escalate into a World War on top of everything else. And, you are sitting right in the center of it. So, what will you do and how will you do it and what will you need to do it? And, remember, no plan is perfect but any plan is better than no plan. And, plans can change and should change so be flexible. Don't worry about it being perfect just get started. And, finally, don't try to eat the entire elephant at once, one bite at a time. Food. Water. Security. Communications. Shelter. Medical. One bite at time...
     
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  14. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Personally, I think you are right. I think the key is if people will come together and organize. They might (as shown by the Korean storekeepers during riots)...then again they might not. Frankly, if you are living there then one must try for lack of better options because I really don't think you'd be able to drive (traffic gridlock) or walk out (maybe but only at night). A person has to be pretty damn desperate to go up against someone that is armed and in a defensive position so it will take a while to get to that level. And, of course, it does come down to how long a SHTF scenario last: weeks, months, years... Lots variables...
     
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  15. arleigh

    arleigh Goophy monkey

    Treat it like an earth quake drill , get on your bike and go home. not in a hurry it's not a race, unless you feel you must.
    Take note of the neighborhoods and challenges along the way, personal cams help to be able to review the path afterword.
    Doing it conditioning your self for it is the first most important prep, if that's the plan.
    Figure long ways around in the event the strait approach is not passable. have maps and google earth for off road options .
    Depending on the time of day, you may have to hike at night, using a red lens flashlight to maintain stealth. any regular flash light is going to attract the wrong attention in that environment.
    Figure that what you cary is expendable , possible use as barter for passage or for or help.
    Short distances now days can be a day's journey ,post SHTF.
    I review my maps often and every time I leave the house review different paths home .
     
  16. Mindgrinder

    Mindgrinder Karma Pirate Ninja|RIP 12-25-2017

    Drive through the worst parts of LA...both by day and by night.
    Would you bike through them?
    Assume this is the BEST CASE SCENARIO 2-3 weeks after SHTF.
    Then make your plan.
    Oh and plz explain how you have a 1 year supply of water/food in an apartment.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
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  17. ED GEiN

    ED GEiN Monkey++

    Here's where you are missing the point in my opinion. I'm going to use a Pro Football analogy which if you don't follow football will make zero sense. NFL Head Coaches have cards prepared on when to go for 2 point conversions based on the score as well as plays they've prepared for when certain situations arise. Such is what I am trying to do for myself on an obvious limited scale. These events may not happen but if they do I at least have some idea of what to do which is better than no idea. I'd rather hear what other people think and come to the best possible path for myself than read a fictional book or read a non-fiction book told from one person's viewpoint. Unfortunately, the people I socialize and work with, don't discuss these things which is why I go to these forums. What I find hilarious though is that some people are offended by people daring to ask hypothetical questions. The common sense way to deal with that is just don't read the hypothetical posts.


    I admire you, seriously.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 28, 2017
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  18. ED GEiN

    ED GEiN Monkey++

    Good optimistic point I'll ponder. I live in a good area but its not even the gangs I fear but the desperate people who didn't prepare in my building by not having ample food, water, medicine in stock.
     
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  19. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    Ah, well, I give up. NFL coaches have a finite list of possibilities. Your list, should you decide it's worth thinking about instead of trying to get others to do it, will be a LOT closer to infinite. Good luck with continuing to bite the hand that's trying to feed you.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2017
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  20. Pax Mentis

    Pax Mentis Philosopher King |RIP 11-4-2017

    Good point...if you can only manage one book or one author. About 99% of responses you get to your loaded "hypotheticals" here (or on any forum) are going to be opinions shaped from reading many other people's perspectives and following through with independent thought taking into account the specific minutiae of their own situation and abilities. There are also many discussions with the many varying opinions on these subjects available through the search feature and tags...starting a thread with a post asking specific statement of what you "should" do I think strikes many of us as disingenuous baiting. I don't think anyone (especially ghrit) is offended...possibly a better word would be impatient with one who will ask and then reject that which they don't wish to hear. Also, at least in my case, one might have some doubts about the sincerity of one who will come onto a preparedness forum taking on the user name "Ed Gein"...

    JMO/YMMV
     
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