Discussion in 'General Survival and Preparedness' started by dragonfly, Feb 19, 2011.

  1. dragonfly

    dragonfly Monkey+++

    Earlier today, I was pondering some things I'd read and decided to call up an old college professor I'd met some years back......(1999/2000 or so).

    At the time he was in the local welder's shop and wanting to make an anvil from an old piece of railroad track....Something or another about studying "blacksmithing". ( he's a tad bit of an eccentric!) ( Ok, so, he's a bit of a nut!)

    Anyway, I wanted to get his take on what the actual "odds" are of survivng any real threat to people on the whole.
    Needless to say, the variables involved are infinite.
    I remembered he had told me (years ago) that he was working on a "computer program" to try and get an idea of what is involved in surviving any mass type of catastrophic or set of events.
    Despite all the variables and scenarios involved he managed to get some numbers from years of playing "war games" with his own devised set of rules and parameters.

    Now, I am by no mean computer literate. In fact I am about as dumb as a rock when it comes to doing much on these things....Trust me on that!
    So here is what I was told this evening:
    You see, it all depends on a set of variables, and they are complicated and hard to discern much from....

    Q) Is the scenario: a man made event, weather related, a solar flare, a meteor, volcanic in nature event, an earthquake, or is it something else?
    I have NO answers, so I go with 'man caused'.
    Q) is it winter, spring, summer or fall?
    Sheesh! What have I got myself into now?
    I go with spring!
    Ok, so far so good....
    Q) does this occur in an urban, or a heavily populated city, or out in the country? ( rural as in farms and so forth)
    Oh Crap! I have to go with Urban or city....I'm just guessing now!
    Q) Is this a nuclear or a bio type of event?
    I don't have an answer to that!
    Q) Well, Is it a complete brownout as in the entire country's grid goes "offline" or is it relatively isolated as in one large city or a smaller rural area?
    Again, I am "LOST"!
    I go with a collapse of the entire country's electrical grid system.
    What I was told and what I can discern from the words I heard, I was not to thrilled to say the least! Far from it in fact!
    Here is the "gist" of what I was told.

    "The odds of "surviving" in a typical "BUG-IN" scenario, are, to say the least: lousy!
    Figure the odds around 1 in 25,000-50,000 against it! ( based on a large typical metropolis such as Los Angeles or New York City). That is variable as it cannot be estimated accurately due to so many ways to find water ( parks and ponds and lakes) as well as some foods, again in those areas where fish and ducks etc. can be acquired. Also there are an infinite amount of places to avoid becoming a target to others seeking food and water.

    The odds dramatically increase in YOUR favor 'IF' you can get to an area all ready and 'prepped' for you to walk into. Figure your survival odds now at 10,000-50,000 to 1! A near complete reversal! EXCEPTION: you'll have to move to that place and do so unnoticed and unassaulted in the process. Now, the odds change! You have a 1 in 100 chance of getting away without being seen.

    It has been estimated by those that know a LOT more than I do, that those people that choose ( or not by choice) remain in ANY city or suburban area are more than likely NOT going to live longer than 7-10 days, period. I would give them about 2-3 weeks personallly, but again, it all depends on so many variables it's impossible to figure it all out.

    (There are geniuses that run these programs over and over, every day of the week, in order to "predict" the "survivability" of humans in any given scenario. Some may be accurate, but they forget the main ingredient, the WILL TO SURVIVE is stronger than any computer or programmer realizes!
    But, given the proper opportunity, NOT only will humans survive, they can actually thrive!)

    Anyone out there have the skills or knowledge to take this further?
    I'd really like to get another point of view! I am a "realist" and know the odds are NOT good in any given scenario, but, I'd like to know anyway!
  2. Seacowboys

    Seacowboys Senior Member Founding Member

    I would refer you to the Georgia Guide Stones and their population stabilization of 500,000,000 worldwide.
  3. dragonfly

    dragonfly Monkey+++

    Now that's just SPOOKY!
  4. Seacowboys

    Seacowboys Senior Member Founding Member

    I think that after a major cataclysmic event, world population will stabilie somewhere around that number. Just look around Walmart and get an idea of what won't be available in the way of people and goods.
  5. TailorMadeHell

    TailorMadeHell Lurking Shadow Creature

    In the words of Han Solo, "Never tell me the odds." You are right, the Will to survive is a powerful thing.
  6. Ajax

    Ajax Monkey++

    I doubt the program is very accurate, there are way too many variables to be accurate. No tot say it's not accurate by coincidence but there is no way to tell.

    I think that any numbers like that won't take into consideration someone who seriously prepares for the worst.
  7. dragonfly

    dragonfly Monkey+++

    I figure that people like us that take the time and put forth the effort to survive anything we can, will do just that in the end...
    The "rest" well, I hate to say it, but maybe they'd be better off!
    Starving really sucks from what I've heard!
    Most of us here and in many other places, have taken the initiative to do whatever we can to make sure some of us are still around after the smoke clears....That gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling!
  8. hedger

    hedger Monkey+

    Getting There From Here

    If the projection of 500,000,000 worldwide stabilized population does come to pass, there is going to be quite a die-off before we get there.
  9. dragonfly

    dragonfly Monkey+++

    "IF" that is the scenario we are untimately facing, wow, what a srench and the diseases will run rampant!
    More will die from that than most causes....Man made or not!
  10. mysterymet

    mysterymet Monkey+++

    You can be vaccinated for some of the diseases that will become a problem. Something to consider...
  11. Wild Trapper

    Wild Trapper Pirate Biker

    I would suggest going out to the street and asking a few homeless people how long they have lived on the street and using those odds rather than some college professor, some of them are battier than what comes out of a computer. (I have friend like that). You program a computer based on known factors to get out of it expected results. In other words, garbage in garbage out.

    Man has survived since the beginning of time and it's only been the last century we have gotten all these modern improvements, (junk), we thing we can't live without. Yeah, go to WalMart and look around, probably most of them wouldn't survive a major crisis, many of them would be in the first to die category

    My point is, we have survived as a race since we showed up here on earth. It probably will all end for man one of these days. So how do we prepare for that? Preparing to die is the first step in learning how to live.
    Cephus likes this.
  12. Tracy

    Tracy Insatiably Curious Moderator Founding Member

  13. Witch Doctor 01

    Witch Doctor 01 Mojo Maker

  14. Bobb

    Bobb On Hiatus Banned

    in the balkan wars people were moving from farms and countryside to cities. much higher survivability in a city. they couldn't protect themselves on their farms. all armies were attacking them first for supplies. and you can be invisible in the city.
  15. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart,Deadman Walking, Snow Monkey Moderator

    Just a NOTE, here: In the Balkan Wars, the people who lived out on the farms, were NOT armed... so they were just Sheeple, that needed the cities to find security. This is NOT the case in the USA, and that senerio would not happen here....
  16. Bobb

    Bobb On Hiatus Banned

    wrong.they were armed, but what is 2-3 AK against 15-20 AK, rpg, hand granades and mortars? no prepper can fight alone against well armed group.now imagine a group thats hungry, thirsty and determined.prepper-toast!
  17. rhead

    rhead Monkey+

    The breakdown of urban survivability vs. rural survivability would of course vary with the nature of the disaster. How quickly things go to pieces would also affect who dies. If things advance slowly many city dwellers will find themselves trapped in the city with no way out. This will also reduce the number of rural causalities due to violence. A sudden event that causes a mass exodus from the cities would have the opposite effect.

    From studies on lab rats and such Survivability from totally new diseases (Where there is no inherited immunity such as the Indians and the European diseases) can run as low as 2% or as high as 20% for the really nasty ones.

    The numbers will vary wildly according to what happens.
  18. Bobb

    Bobb On Hiatus Banned

    yes.everything is relative and possible
  19. Robryan

    Robryan Monkey+

    Are you kidding most of them in wal-mart would die out as soon as their batteries died in their little carts.
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