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What are you preparing for? What if something else happens?

Discussion in 'General Survival and Preparedness' started by Orance Fine, Jul 20, 2014.

  1. Orance Fine

    Orance Fine Monkey

    Surviving a flood or earthquake or tornado (or a similar time-limited event) is much different, I would think, than getting past a Zimbabwe level hyperinflation, increasingly tyrannical government, or another Great Depression. The consequences of any of these latter three examples could conceivably bump along for decades and because they affect the entire nation and the damage overcomes the reserves. Friends in other parts of the country won’t be able to help as they are being similarly affected. On the other hand, natural disasters are local events and more often than not over relatively quickly. The damages may take some time to repair, but the materials are available (or can be acquired) and friends and relatives can help.

    A general social breakdown may take us back generations if it’s bad enough, or even further. When Rome abandoned Gaul the Dark Ages began and the set-back was counted in centuries. How far back could it go? A person or group focused on general social breakdown might wish to concentrate on a particular time period, as in “We think, as a worst likely case, that society may devolve to the 1800’s level, so we're prepping at the technology level of 1800”. Another group might think it could well be worse, “No, the survivors will return to hunter-gatherer age, so we're developing really basic skill sets”.

    These are important questions because their answers affect what we do and whether or not all the thought, time and treasure it requires will ultimately be useful. There are at least three inter-related issues: Geography, Depth, and Consequences.

    Geography: Will the event be local or regional or even worldwide? A person would reasonably do different things if he expected the problem might be a storm-related temporary loss of power than he would if he were preparing for a massive global EMP occurrence.

    Depth: Events can be judged by the extent of their ripples. Primary events have few and short-lived consequences and are often resolved by direct aid. A heavy tree limb falls on a neighbor’s roof. It can be fixed by direct aid: four men and a chainsaw.

    Derivative events have many (sometimes conflicting) consequences, and are difficult or unlikely to be resolved by direct aid. Example: The major source of Frank’s retirement income comes from the four rental houses he’s accumulated over the years. The major local employer shutters its doors and the tenants can no longer pay their rents. Frank’s income vanishes, but the bank still wants their mortgage payments or they’ll foreclose. Frank’s problem is unlikely to be resolved by four men and a chainsaw. It’s a derivative problem in that Frank loses because the tenants can’t pay because the third-party asphalt shingle producer went bankrupt because the government required air scrubbers the company couldn’t afford. Derivative events always involve at least one third party and sometimes several. They are difficult or impossible to cure using direct aid.

    Consequences: Consequences are a function of Geography and Depth. A temporary loss of power will probably have consequences limited in area and brief in time. A derivative event has the potential to radically change life as we know it. Ask the Gauls.

    A complicating issue is that there’s never enough money for everything so choices must be made. The best choices are made when they are driven by a goal. And that means we probably should know what we’re preparing for.

    So, what are you preparing for and (follow-up question) what are your alternatives if something else happens?
    Motomom34, tulianr and kellory like this.
  2. Seacowboys

    Seacowboys Senior Member Founding Member

    The short and simple answer is that I am preparing for life. My preparations are not contingent on economy, infrastructure, or disaster, natural or man-made. I have spent most of my adult life working in third-world countries and have seen and lived in the aftermath of some really dire events and yet, my resolve to see this ride through to the exit-turnstile has not diminished in the least. In the past, I have lost all that I owned but the clothes on my back and sat around a fire eating what I had gathered and planned for what lay just around the corner and knew that life still had quality. Simple fact is, that unless you make a sudden stop, life goes on. Without exception, we are all going to die but until then, I plan to avoid it as much as is possible. When he plowed through an elaborate mouse den, Robert Frost penned the line "the best laid plans of mice and men, gang aft aglay..." My plans are simple; to survive. If those plans change....
  3. cdnboy66

    cdnboy66 Monkey++

    You can and should be prepared, but good question as to what to be prepared for.

    Here is my take on it, probably not worth the wooden nickel I will charge, nonetheless here we go
    I always tell my kids " dress like you have to walk home"
    so your preps should evolve based on what is going on around you and what you're doing in your environment and whether you are in your own environment or about to embark into a new environment
    For my own clarity I will class my preps in stages
    I will add this here as I go down through the very incomplete list, most every "stage" has redundancy built into it.
    for example, I have more than one type of first aid kit in more than one place, but the first one was bought for the truck, then the next was was bought for the camping set and then the next one was bought for the RV we had at the time.
    so, it has been layered into redundancy through time and resources

    First stage
    ,I prep for today, the mundane things, the little day to day things
    do I have a change of clothes in case I need them at work.
    including a change of socks, underwear, a spare weather appropriate shirt and pants and a change of footwear
    -water..yup, good to go for the day.
    Food, freezer is full, there is propane in the BBQ so if the power goes off I can still cook reasonably easily
    dogs are fed and watered
    Truck has more than 3/4 of a tank of fuel
    bank account has appropriate funds and house has some cash for just in case

    Case in point this week that I have prepped poorly for, My truck has a slow leak in a rear tire so it is on the "to be tended to" side of my preps. ( did I metion it was just at the dealer for servicing....arrrggghh)
    There is a spare, I have a set of winters, but these skins are getting thin and need to be replaced, and I hope will last out the summer
    I should mention, I have a small compressor and a patch kit if need be
    also, I should mention that there is an older suburban in the yard that just needs to get insured if I should need to press it into service.

    all of that "day to day" prepping is built in layers over the course of time and resources that allow me not to worry about much, just adapt to what happens
    Things like fire extinguishers everywhere in the house just in case, smoke detectors first aid kits are additional layers on these initial preps

    Second Stage
    Short Term preps
    not EOTWAWKI scenarios but disruptive events, say small house fire, major storm that knocks out power for a few days or snow storm that closes highways or evac order from wildfires
    or, something as simple as slipping at work and spraining an ankle
    sleeping bags/tents, dehydrated foods and water storage, creature comforts like wet wipes and towels and clean sheets that allow me to "camp out" . Camping out could be in the KOA or a friends basement, but we are kitted out for a week or 2 of self reliance
    Things like a camp kitchen with all the fixings is boxed and ready to throw into the truck
    I have a few oil lamps and a few gallons of lamp oil which bridge gaps in short and long term preps
    ultimately, I would like to go solar, but that is not yet and these work for now
    sleeping bags and cots and tents and tables will always make life better and they are not hard to store and keep accessible
    I keep 2 cots at a buddies place for when I come visit him, he uses them when his kids have sleepovers and I have the benefit of always having a cozy place to lay my head when i go there, next to get to his place is a better sleeping bag that stays right there.
    I like sleeping on a cot though they can be cumbersome to carry, I also have a couple of hammocks that weigh substantially less, but different set up requirements. my buddy doesn't realy want a couple of big metal rings on his living room wall

    this an evolving list that with a little attention becomes a tried and tested set up that becomes quite comfortable in almost any situation.
    This is not a Bug out Forever solution to me but can provide time to bridge to a new solution

    Third Stage
    Mid Term Preps,
    tree falls on house, major storm, house fire, job loss, major injury, multi month excrement in the oscillating device
    see above for the base layers, yours increased layers will vary based on your location and resources

    I will add to note that a divorce and subsequent financially draining legal battle have decimated most of my longer term preps and they are currently being rebuilt through the liberal use of overtime and belt tightening

    But I am still covered in most areas, just not radically self reliant in some areas. A move may be in my future to increase my self reliance and put me back in the black so to speak. this too is part of the evolution of prepping, adaptation to your current situation

    Food and Fuel will be your first challenges because in a multi month event, you are going to need to house yourself and keep yourself warm if you live in an environment where the weather is not always warm.
    this is (imho) why a Bug in strategy is advantageous for many reasons, presuming your house is not burned, invaded, unavailable

    and this is where the many layers of day to day prepping comes in handy because you will have the resources to collect water, and hopefully have food on hand, but may need some supplementation of the food source.

    Fouth Stage....
    this is the EOTWAWKI scenario that has been played out in every forum around the world
    and to this end, here are some specific preps that I have made, and this with a caveat that I have some background as a carpenter
    a saw, yes, a chainsaw as well as a 2 man buck saw for when the chainsaw runs out of gas
    an axe, actually multiple axes. double bit for felling, maul for splitting and broad for hewing
    while they are not all the very best quality, they are the best I could afford at the time, when finances permit, they will receive and uprade

    I also have collected over the years some small bits and braces, none in pristine shape, but possible they could be pressed into service if need should arise

    and there are a few other preps that I need not go into online

    So, what I would like to do from here with my preps is add
    -increased and Longer range stored dehydrated food in a larger capacity to increase what I don't have to supplement
    -barter goods, candles sound like they would be a good thing to trade in small values
    -matches to go with candles, appropriate long term storage of said matches must be procured
    First aid supplies like saline solutions are on my list, not IV stuff, but definitely for rinsing and wounds
    - i would also think that bar soap would be a good thing to keep a box of around, both for trading and the feel good effect of being clean

    and I would like to add some solar and led lights to the mix to generally improve life in the dark

    better financial backup
    then, and equipment upgrade all around

    So, I think anybody that is currently prepping is prepping for more than one event and on multiple levels, though they may not recognize it with their own preps
    I also think that anyone who preps is prepping based on the fact that things change, there are alternatives to how things may happen and they prep accordingly. But there will be such a variety of regional challenges that everyone will prep a different way and for different specifics

    And this caveat as well, I DO NOT have all the answers, mostly I just have more questions.

    But I have begun this here and welcome input to improve
  4. -06

    -06 Monkey+++

    Hi "66", looks like you are doing well and much above the norm. We think a lot alike as I have enough hand tools to get by--also have a manual drill press, two cross cut two man saws, and the reloading gear on easily/quickly removable platforms. Our preps are roughly divided into 3 day, 3 week, and indefinite gear/supplies. Am set to bug in but ready for any eventuality. Our first aid is community sized and in depth. Wish we had more training but a friend is an ER nurse and nephew is SF med trained.
    cdnboy66 and tulianr like this.
  5. chelloveck

    chelloveck Diabolus Causidicus

  6. natshare

    natshare Monkey+

    Yep, maybe the best thing to prepare for, is just general preparedness, instead of one specific type of event. That way, no matter what happens, you're (hopefully) better off than you would be if you'd done ZERO preparations. Figure that if you know some general first aid, you're probably better off if you (or someone else) is injured.....but just because it doesn't happen, doesn't mean you wasted time learning it, right? :cool:
    Orance Fine and Yard Dart like this.
  7. kellory

    kellory An unemployed Jester, is nobody's fool. Banned

    Prep for where you are, snd what YOU have to do.If you live in a flood plane, there are specific problems with that. You live in a desert, there are issue you would not have to deal with in Maine.
    If there are medical issues, you are going to have to deal with them as needed.
    Generic, plus specific.
    natshare, chelloveck and Brokor like this.
  8. Yard Dart

    Yard Dart Vigilant Monkey..... Moderator Site Supporter++

    Out here we have many issues to prep for. An earthquake is probably the biggest on our radar as we are prone to them, much like CA. We also have Mt Rainier at my back door, which is a pretty good sized volcano, but not likely to go off any time soon (but you never know). Fire, flooding, nuclear or bio attack, and those are just amongst other types of issue out there, that may strike by act of god... or act of man.

    How does one prep for one specific event..... I say you can not. You can have a heavy focus for your primary concern, but you would be foolish not to address other event preparations in some manner to mitigate whatever may come. If something happens, you have to be flexible enough to protect you and yours from being affected as much as possible.... and then be ready for the aftermath of correction, restoration and repair to get back to a normal situation. And to do that, you have to have the basics, tools, first aid, and everything else from A to Z, that you can do or store with your available budget, environment and time constraints. As we talked about in other threads.... it does not matter what your specific need is for preparation.... but the fact you are working on it, studying various subject manner to be better knowledgeable in survival techniques, and then practice, practice....practice.
    natshare and Orance Fine like this.
  9. kellory

    kellory An unemployed Jester, is nobody's fool. Banned

    Tsunami Supply Barrel Program | City of Seaside I had a private earthquake barrel when I lived in Calli. If for any reason, I could not be living in the house, or had to leave, that buried barrel would be opened. It was water proof, and carried everything from camping gear. Food, water, cash and a shotgun with a variety of loads. Clothes, and travel bags. No one even knew it was there besides me. But that barrel's primary purpose, was a big quake. So yes, you can prep for one problem, just like you set up tool kits for certain types of jobs. (Painting, carpentry, drywall, electrical) though many of the tools have multiple uses, each kit is specific.
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 23, 2014
  10. natshare

    natshare Monkey+

    Kellory, you have one too many "Tsunami Barrel Program" in your link. :)

    I look at prepping much like the famous quote about going to war, "No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy." Doesn't matter how meticulously you might plan, doesn't matter how OCD you might be, you're going to miss something, or Mr. Murphy is going to throw you a curve ball you just didn't expect. The ability to plan for what you consider the worst possible scenario, prepare for it, but still be willing to modify that plan on the fly, is oftentimes what separates the survivors from the victims. And sometimes it's just plain old fashioned dumb luck.
  11. Yard Dart

    Yard Dart Vigilant Monkey..... Moderator Site Supporter++

    That quote is so true @natshare !!!
    Murphy rules the day more than anyone would like......
  12. kellory

    kellory An unemployed Jester, is nobody's fool. Banned

    Perhaps a mod can fix it. I can not.
  13. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    I tried, didn't work for me, either before or after I deleted the second phrase. Can you find it again and repost?
  14. kellory

    kellory An unemployed Jester, is nobody's fool. Banned

    I can try. It was just show an example of an earthquake barrel. They are city supplied in that article, and housed in your home, in case of need.
  15. ghrit

    ghrit Ambulatory anachronism Administrator Founding Member

    natshare and kellory like this.
  16. kellory

    kellory An unemployed Jester, is nobody's fool. Banned

  17. -06

    -06 Monkey+++

    We certainly do not like the thought that we may become refugees fleeing from armed forces or battle areas--but that is certainly possible. Our country is not exempt anymore from attack or even widespread civil unrest. If you have to leave--where will you go, what route will you take, do you have alternatives of both, can you depend on your neighbors/friends, how will you make it past check points/road blocks/bridges out/etc? Just a few questions that one should seriously address and make provisions for. Having a place to go where you will be received is IMO a primary goal. Being able to get there is not far behind in importance. Bringing preps with you is right up there also.
    Yard Dart likes this.
  18. fmhuff

    fmhuff Monkey+++

    My prepping is for the possible disruption of the supply chain and infrastructure failure along with the element of large scale civil unrest. What happens when the stores don't have food and the boogeyman comes knocking on my door.

    IMHO anything long term or TEOTWAWKI is so far removed from my ability to prepare for all eventualities, other than developing skill sets, knowledge and training that I doubt my preps would be of much use.

    Examples might be a meteor impact, plague epidemic, total all out civil war, nuclear attack, etc. Even a second great economic depression would require re-assessing just about everything.
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2014
  19. BTPost

    BTPost Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    You take your shotgun, and blow the BoggyMan into the next county.... Then you post a sign on your Front Gate.... "Trespassers will be SHOT on sight, with NO Warning" Only the first two or three will try, and their stinking Corpse's, will be a warning to the Rest, that there are easier places to try, than your place, PERIOD.....
    oldawg likes this.
  20. NotSoSneaky

    NotSoSneaky former supporter

    Here in New England we are ion the midst of a family feud over control of a supermarket chain. My town just went from two supermarkets to one. Now every shopping trip is like the night before a blizzard. One store is essentially closed, the other is packed to capacity every day. We shop at night, when the shelves are being re-stocked. Wonder how long before the sheeple figure this out.

    Nice to have a full pantry in times like this. We've prepped for an extended bug-in / grid down scenario. Currently pre-positioning supplies for a remote chance of a bug out if necessary.

    Where to ?

    Motomom34 and chelloveck like this.
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