What if peak oil isn't the end of the world?

Discussion in 'Peak Oil' started by oil pan 4, Jul 10, 2016.


?
  1. The world implodes

  2. No one notices and it's a historic milestone.

  3. IDK.

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  1. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    What if peak oil isn't the end of the world?
    Peak oil for industrial users happened in the 1970s and industry kept chugging along. They still use oil but nothing like back in the 1970s.
    At one point a good portion of the electrical power generated in the US was from oil.
    It may have already happened or be happening right now.
    Oil prices go up and suddenly alternatives become more feasible.
    A paradigm shift happened with power generation and industry with out imploding, why not everything else too?
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2016
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  2. azrancher

    azrancher Monkey +++

    The oil crisis of the 70's was fabricated, I was there, there was somebody behind it all.

    Rancher
     
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  3. chelloveck

    chelloveck Diabolus Causidicus

    Agreed, the 70's "Oil Shock" was a market manipulation by a number of OPEC countries, not Peak Oil. At that time, exploration was far from done, and more oil reserves were still being discovered.

    Although fossil fuel reliance has a way to go yet, smart money will be invested in technologies that reduce dependence on oil, NG and coal. Without a doubt peak oil will alter life as we presently know it, but by that time I'll be long gone. That doesn't mean that forward planning shouldn't be put into effect to cushion the effects, both at national, state and local levels. As for myself, I am making my own arrangements for my progeny.
     
  4. RouteClearance

    RouteClearance Monkey+++

    Really don't care about the concept, if the world has reached that point. Take what happened a few years ago with the shale-oil being the biggest cause of the glut we have today. Shale oil was such a successful endeavor that The US started EXPORTING oil.

    As for alternatives, it has been proven time and again that it takes just as much raw energy to produce the wind turbines, solar panels, and ethanol than what these alternative sources produce.

    One BBL of crude oil(42 US Gallons) possesses 5.8 × 10^6 BTU's or 1.7 MWh's of energy.

    Until the day that a brilliant scientist come along and changes the basic laws of thermodynamics(HIGHLY UNLIKELY), crude oil will be this planets most energy dense raw resource available.
     
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  5. duane

    duane Monkey+++

    Peak oil has arrived in the USA many years ago for the $5-10 a barrel oil and we have learned how to live with the more difficult to extract $40-50 barrel oil. Now if Hittlery outlaws fracking and shale, causes pollution you know, all bets are off. We in NH have had cheap hydro from Canada as an optional electrical source for several years, but the "greens" have caused us to spend several billion dollars on more expensive sources that pollute as building 50 or so miles of high voltage transmission towers required to connect to our grid would totally destroy the pristine nature of the White Mountains. A lot of the funding for the groups that are stopping the power lines is coming from the west coast and people that not only don't live, but will probably never visit. The impact of abundant $100 a barrel oil or $200 a barrel oil is difficult to judge in the long run, in the short run it would be bad.
     
  6. Kingfish

    Kingfish Self Reliant

    I dont believe that lack of oil will ever be the end of the world. Maybe as we know it. we lived without oil before and will again.
     
    chelloveck likes this.
  7. Altoidfishfins

    Altoidfishfins Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    Well, seeing as how Hitlery gets rather generous donations from Saudi Arabia, you can bet that once she's in office, she'll do something to permanantly end this business of fracking. Once that's done, and domestic oil is no longer a source of competition for the Saudis, they'll be free to once again jack the price of oil up to $150/barrel. This will all be done in the name of "saving the environment", you understand.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2016
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  8. chelloveck

    chelloveck Diabolus Causidicus

    It won't be the end of the world, but it will be the end of the world as we presently know it. It will be the end of the world of mass consumerism, which may not be any great loss. It will be the transition from cheap fossil fuel for manufacturing, transport, agriculture, and domestic use that will be the cause of much social disruption. Things will get a little messy for quite a while when the fossil fuel dance ends. Horse breedin', wheelwright'n', blacksmith'n', farrier'n', carriage makin', and cartwright'n' trades and occupations may experience something of a renaissance! ;)
     
  9. BTPost

    BTPost Stumpy Old Fart Snow Monkey Moderator

    Only if the World does NOT come up with an Energy Replacement for that Oil.... Fusion could be that Replacement, when it is finally available....
     
    chelloveck likes this.
  10. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Prices and technology have allowed NM to become the #3 oil producing state.
    More oil shale recovering tech is allowing access to more oil.
     
  11. chelloveck

    chelloveck Diabolus Causidicus

    Undoubtedly, new search, extraction and refining technologies will stretch the availability of non-renewables, for some time to come, but fossil fuels are a finite resource....even before the fossil fuel dance stops completely, there will be major social and geo-political upheavals. Those nations that wouldn't previously entertain nuclear options, may have to embrace it, or accept chaos.

    I could probably get by without grid electricity if I had to, but society in general is going to do it hard, and it won't be a painless process, even for those who a better prepared than most for the transition off fossil fuel dependency.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 21, 2018
  12. TnAndy

    TnAndy Senior Member Founding Member

    But from all I read, the shale oil industry as a whole has yet to make a profit....they are pumping more and more, and loosing money. Increasing paper debt is what is allowing this miracle. When debt finally kills them off, the flow stops.
     
  13. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    The flow of oil slows or stops then price goes up, now it can make money.
     
    john316 likes this.
  14. Wildbilly

    Wildbilly Monkey+++

    If it isn't Peak Oil it will be Peak Water or Peak Food or Peak Fertilizer or...
     
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  15. arleigh

    arleigh Goophy monkey

    I think the government would step in and control the price and the distribution .
    Delivery trucks can't run on electricity yet .
    The world is dependent on these vehicles for food and goods .
    Boats don't move without oil .
    Military don't move without oil .
    There are reserves that we haven't tapped yet , and they will stay that way till every other source is spent.
     
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  16. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Peak horse wasn't the end of the world unless you dealt in horses, horse shoes, horse feed, horse shit, horse meat or carriages and refused to diversify or change.

    Boats could use coal.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see a return of steam powered ocean going vessels at some point.

    I doubt they will be completely spent, they will just become so expensive that the nature of their use will change.
    I expect to see a huge surge in oil, then natural gas prices by the next 20 years.

    The way I see it I get a 20 year head start.
    Then when it hits I won't have to adopt anything new.
    Most people are just going to keep on keeping on until they realize they have been spending 10% (now), 20% and 30% of the money they make on energy, are broke from it and can't afford to change until personal shtf reset forces the change.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
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  17. arleigh

    arleigh Goophy monkey

    Well surprise guess what, there still is coal and steam boats , modern ones.
    Coal driven ships use the coal like liquid fuel injected in the cylinder. really big cylinders
    Steam is what nuclear vessels run . Now if we can build some steam powered trucks we'd be going places.
    Hopefully the modern technologies for jet engines is being used to line the steam pipes and other parts usually vulnerable to steam. I worked on the steam turbines that are used on navy ships , I'm not a steam engineer but I've spent some time around them .Dad had a Stanley steamer engine for a while ,
    In 1865 a man set up a parabolic dish, similar to a 10' satellite dish and put a boiler at the focal point, and ran his printing press .
    You can buy systems that do this NOW. there is a catch, you need to learn something.
    There are many ways people can make power of their own , it's having the fortitude to DO IT.
    I have a design for a different wind mill . I've been collecting the materials for years ,to make the prototype , till then I'm on solar and a commercially made wind mill.
    Neither make a lot of power but I'm not complaining, they are stepping stones, and they do make a contribution, Besides my electric bill is only about $25-$45 a month . running welders and other heavy stuff.
    I people are afraid to invest in learning how things work, a lot of technologies will be lost.
     
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  18. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    I mean like Transoceanic, 50,000 to 100,000 horsepower class.
    If there are coal fired Trans ocean ships they must not be real common like they used to be. I alway hear about the diesel driven ones.
     
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  19. arleigh

    arleigh Goophy monkey

    Look up coal powered engines . it will surprise you.
     
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  20. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    I have seen 2 or 3. One of the largest steam locomotives ever built still occasionally runs every few years around Roanoke Virginia. It makes something like 70,000 horsepower and over 100,000 pounds of average tractive effort and weighs something like 440 tons.
    It was built in Roanoke in the late 1940s and early 1950s at the pinnacle of reciprocating steam technology.
    When I saw it in the early 1990s it was still being restored.

    I would expect to see a return of steam electric turbine, probably around 100 years after they were given up on in favor of diesel electric.
    It would seem stuff tends to come full circle when given enough time.
     
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