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When do you think the S will HTF

Discussion in 'General Survival and Preparedness' started by survivalmonkey, Mar 9, 2010.

  1. survivalmonkey

    survivalmonkey Monkey+++

    I'm about to start a shop with all the cash I've got, I havn't prepared for the SHTF yet and I suspect I'll have enough cash by the end of the year to prepare properly if I do start this shop. So...

    Do you think I should start the shop ASAP and recoup on my losses, then prepare (4+ months).

    or should I prepare now and put off the shop for a while?

    I think we have another 1-3 years left.

    What do you think?

  2. RouteClearance

    RouteClearance Monkey+++ Site Supporter

    Re: When do you think the S will HTF [GIM Survival Prep]

    Prep now and put off your shop for later, the main reason is because we are about to go throught the second half of the housing bust.

    The first bust from 2007-2008 involved the sub-prime market. The next wave that is now starting is the prime market because of the Alt-A loans that are now beggining to reset to a much higher intrest rate, but because of the amount of good jobs lost in the last two years, where are those that are laid-off going to come up with the additional money that their mortages will require.

    We also have to look at the economies of Europe and China. Greece has just defaulted, Iceland is not far behind due to the people rejecting their TARP by a super majority of over 93%. It has also been revealed that China's so-called economic recovery was just a sham after it was revealed that a majority of China's local governments basicaly bailed out their own providences.

    When it will happen is anybody's guess. It now looks more like a slow slide instead of just falling off of a steep cliff. As for me, I have taken no chances and have prepped as much as my personal econimics will allow
  3. bnmb

    bnmb On Hiatus Banned

    SHTF could start about october-november this year...
  4. gunbunny

    gunbunny Never Trust A Bunny

    I hear you, brother! Not that we were starting with much, but nobody I know has any savings left. It's not like we enjoy living this way (check to check, no savings to fall back on) but it is the way it has to be.
  5. OzarkSaints

    OzarkSaints Monkey++

    RC....could you please explain the Alt-A loans? I remember hearing about it repeatedly from JWR, but I asked a couple of realtors and they had no clue what they are....any insight would be very much appreciated

    SM....what kind of biz? judging from the dates on this thread I assume you already opened? how are things going?
  6. cdnboy66

    cdnboy66 Monkey++

    How did you get into my head before I even thought this????

    I am currently in the same dilemna.
    I have waited a long time to have a shop and it is within grasp...[drooling]
    but I hesitate to spend the money, wondering if it is wisdom itself to wait just a while longer and have some liquidity
  7. bnmb

    bnmb On Hiatus Banned

    I don't really think you could get a fair advice here...I know that I wouldn't be able to give you one. It all depends who believes in what, and why...For example: maybe I believe in Nibiru and its arrival in 2012, but Joe believes that collapse in US will happen i 3-4 months! Ted believes that nuclear war will start in 2 months (US-Iran)...So, each one could give you a different advice. I would not want to be one to give you a possible life-death advice, and be wrong!
    So, the decision is yours and should be according to your logic, your research and your priorities...
  8. ISplatU

    ISplatU Monkey+

    Oh and I said it will start in the beginning of July... this year when they evacuate the Gulf states. I still have that bad foot taste in my mouth.

    Really I am tring to prep as hard as I can, at the same time I had no job for awhile and am almost losing home at same time makes it impossable to do what I want to do, so I do a little at a time.
  9. UGRev

    UGRev Get on with it!

    I'm hoping for "Never". But can hear that reset button being plunged down.
  10. tacmotusn

    tacmotusn Mosquito Sailor

    Ya gotta learn to wash your feet really well. Rinse them really well. Then use some of that flavored edible body gel on them. Then when they end up in your mouth they don't taste so bad. ..... trust me. ... lol ... advice from one who often ends up with a size 10 foot in mouth.b::
  11. RouteClearance

    RouteClearance Monkey+++ Site Supporter

    Alt-A is the rating given to those people who does not have a FICO score high enough to place them in the Prime category for mortgage loans, but also has a FICO score that puts them well above the Subprime category.

    What has been found is that after the subprime meltdown of '07-'08, these higher rated mortgages were scrutinized and what was found was very alarming, ie., no documentation to prove the borrowers income and employment status. These were no different than the subprimers that took out their mortgages with the Liars Loans/NINJA loan applications.

    If you want to go into more detail about Alt-A mortgages, Wikipedia does have a more indepth explanation.
  12. fireplaceguy

    fireplaceguy Monkey+

    I read the wikipedia definition and found it rather muddy.

    My understanding is that Alt-A loans were issued to borrowers with "A" FICO scores but inadequate income documentation. These were called low-doc loans. This was originally aimed at commissioned and self-employed people with good credit but enough in the way of deductions (or off the books income) to disqualify them under automated underwriting. (One hallmark of Alt-A was hand underwriting, a much slower process.) The thinking was that a lot of these borrowers were the realtors, appraisers, mortgage brokers and contractors making big money in the housing boom, so what the heck, right??? Everything would be fine...

    The potential for abuse was gigantic, though, and as time went on people with "A" FICO's and no income no job or anything at all (NINJA's - for "no income no job no assets") were given loans as well. These were the no-doc loans. They were still credit score driven, and you pretty much needed an "A" score to get one. Problem is, that opened the housing market up to almost anyone with a good payment history, even if they worked part-time at Starbucks.

    I think the confusion arises over misuse of the word prime. Prime and sub-prime generally refer to the paper. You might call an "A" FICO borrower a "prime" borrower, but it would be much more accurate to call them an A borrower. If you don't verify employment,income and assets, then the paper (the note itself) is definitely sub-prime as far as the investor is concerned. The credit score is high, but the loan is risky. They sloppily called the borrowers and the loans "Alt-A" - likely because the words sub-prime might be offensive to borrowers and scary to investors. Such confusion always results when the bad people start obfuscating.

    In the heyday of the housing bubble, which was actually a credit bubble, the ratings agencies bought the magical thinking that you could bundle a whole bunch of poor loans together and find investment grade safety in numbers. (That's kind of like shoveling 3 stalls worth of horse**** into a hopper and expecting a bale of nice fragrant hay to fall out of the chute...) Everyone understood that some of these loans would go bad, but they were betting on continued market appreciation to not just cover their asses, but provide good returns. This magic allowed them to rationalize better ratings of the paper than were ever deserved, and since the ratings agencies were in competition with each other for business, the magic was fully utilized.

    I don't know about today, but it used to be easy to rack up an "A" FICO score. A convenience store clerk could do it, and in the latter days of Alt-A lending, said clerk could buy a McMansion based on credit score alone. That's one reason the latter half of the Alt-A loans went bad so much faster than the ones written earlier in the curve.

    (As an aside, most of the loans about to reset now are Option ARM's - an entirely separate problem. And yes, TS will soon HTF.)

    This mess started under Carter with the Community Reinvestment Act - government rules about lending to minorities. Originally, the rules just prohibited the practice of "redlining" (drawing a red line around a minority area on a map and making NO loans there). Lenders were required to consider applicants in those areas but were still allowed to underwrite by normal standards. I supported that. The law was fair, and it created no moral hazard.

    (Back when I was part of the financial world, I saw statistics on credit scores broken down by various demographics. I was shocked to see that blacks were absolutely abysmal managers of money. As a group, their finances were so poor that it impacted everything including the persistency of life insurance policies, which is the context in which I saw the data. This was part of a much larger internal study looking at acquisition costs, and the data wasn't used against any applicants. In fact, the financial people never widely released the study to underwriting or marketing, and I only saw the results because I was part of raw data acquisition.) It is interesting information, though, in that it explains precisely why, despite the elimination of redlining, very few mortgages were ever written in these neighborhoods and the minority leaders were not appeased.

    Fast forward to the Clinton years, when minority groups once again had a sympathetic ear. Clinton happily expanded the Community Reinvestment Act into a full-blown quota system. After that, lenders had to write loans in those geographic areas, whether anyone was qualified or not. It was an indirect edict, accomplished by creating huge civil penalties for non-compliance with quotas. When a lender wouldn't make enough bad loans, they were sued and forced to settle - by making more bad loans. If they refused to settle, they would lose even more money through civil penalties.

    Citibank was sued by ACORN in 1994 over this very issue, and the lawyer's signature on that lawsuit reads "Barack H. Obama" - so don't buy the BS that he inherited this crisis from Bush. Obama helped CREATE the crisis by suing Citi, 6 years before Bush even took office. Being schooled by Alinsky, he knew precisely what he was doing.

    Once lenders had to live under this cloud, everyone up and down the supply chain had to start lying to themselves (and everyone else) that it would all work out. Either that, or they had to admit that our own government under Bill Clinton had deliberately set in motion the destruction of our financial system using the Cloward-Piven Strategy.

    Cloward and Piven were Columbia U profs who devised a tactic to bring down capitalism by overloading the financial system with impossible demands, pushing society into economic collapse and crisis. Like the rest of the professional left, Cloward and Piven were hard core socialists and devoted Alinskyites. They knew that the resulting crisis (can't let a good one go to waste!) would open the door for the implementation of Marxism.

    In an "in your face" moment, Cloward and Piven were actually guests of Clinton at the White House when he signed tho Motor Voter act! Motor Voter enabled vote fraud (another ACORN specialty) which recently made Al Franken a US Senator from Minnesota.

    The Cloward-Piven Strategy has now collapsed the New York welfare system, stolen elections and has set in motion a global economic collapse that is still playing out. Of course, this is all a lot easier to say today than it was 15-18 years ago when this mess really got started. If it weren't for the internet, we probably wouldn't even know half of what actually happened!

    [Sorry about the thread hijack, but I couldn't resist the opportunity to tie all that together! The mods are certainly welcome to turn this into a separate thread. As to the original question, I'd stay liquid right now as well. In this climate, I wouldn't start a business unless I had the cash left over after getting all my preps squared away, everything paid off and a bucket filled with pre-65 silver coins to fall back on. Even then, I'd use a "privacy" corporation (no link to my name other than showing me as an employee) and I wouldn't sign more than a month to month lease or even a cellphone contract!]
  13. -06

    -06 Monkey+++

    About shop openings: consider what services/products you will be providing/supplying. Is it something that will be needed/required even in an economic crisis or something one can/has to do without. I have a portable welder and shop welders plus lots of service type pieces of equipment. Hopefully if things continue to go "south" they will become needed to repair things. We can build engines, rears, trannies, and repair things. We can build a house/barn/building or move it. We hopefully will see better times sooner but am not depending on things getting better any time right away.
  14. Brokor

    Brokor Live Free or Cry Moderator Site Supporter+++ Founding Member

    Israel and Iran is stepping up -don't look too far off now.
  15. bnmb

    bnmb On Hiatus Banned

    Yep...Fidel Castro says the same thing...he predicts war...
    We'll see....
  16. Brokor

    Brokor Live Free or Cry Moderator Site Supporter+++ Founding Member

    Who knows? Kennedy grew a conscience in time to send a shimmering lightning bolt up the arse end of the Bay of Pigs, perhaps good old Bammie can have a change of heart too. [booze]

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