Peak Oil- what it is and how it will impact your life

I can see all those stripper wells in Wyoming getting fired up again.

 

This isn't really an update, just some thoughts. I watched most of the State of The Union address the other night. I was interested in what the Presidents new "Energy" plan was going to be.

His new plan, the "20 in 10", plan is very interesting if you read betwen the lines.

He wants to reduce the consumption of gasoline by 20% in 10 years. What this says to me, and is borne out in most studies and graphs, is that we will have 20% less gasoline on the market in 10 years.

And another interesting note. And I am sorry but I can't help but say it, I told you so! Myself and others warning about "Peak Oil" have been saying to not put your hope in "Alternative" fuels.

The president was hyping technological advances and developement of more alternative fuel sources. But the fact is, we are still years, even decades away from any meaningful "Alternatives". There are a myriad of different technologies being developed, but nothing. let me say that again, there is nothing, in use now or even being developed that holds any promise whatsoever of replacing fossil fuels. They may replace a miniscule amount of what we now consume but that will not prevent a catastrophic change in the way we live and the quality of life we enjoy today.

The president talked about ethanol production. But even the lamestream media is telling you that there is not enough corn in the entire world to even put a dent in world petroleum consumption. What miniscule amount we produce here in the US has already doubled the price of corn.

Everything has repercussions. We can replace a portion of one resource by raping another. If we turn all aerable farm land into fuel production then how are we to feed the poulation of the world. We can't.

According to Ted Turner, Prince Charles, and many other "elite", and the UN, have all said that we MUST reduce the world population to less than 2 billion. Any volunteers? But there is no conspiracy out there. it's not a conspiracy when they openly tell us their plans. Eliminate outdated notions like national soveriegnty, individual rights, and personal freedom. For the good of the world "eliminate" 3/4 ths of the worlds population.

Just some thoughts.

 

Here are some production figures and predictions.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Here is one a little less technical T3.
Why should we be concerned with Mexican production figures?
It might surprise you to learn that the majority of our imported oil does not come from the Middle East. of the top ten importers to the US, Saudi Arabia is only #5.
the top three are in order;
#1 Canada
#2 Mexico
#3 Venezuela

So with Mexico's production in decline and Saudi admitting that they are producing at maximum capacity, the uncertainty of Chavez. All adds up to higher prices this summer than we have seen to date.
Peak Oil can only be viewed in a rearview mirror. Not until the worlds major fields start a sustained decline can we accurately say when exactly we reached peak. I think we are seeing it come into view now.
December 16th 2005. I think this will prove out to be a pretty accurate forecast.
Another interesting statistic I just learned. The US rig count is at it's highest level in decades. An indicator of the frenzied pace of exploration for new energy deposits. But, you would think with the price of oil that they would be drilling oil wells as fast as possible. Nope! 90%, yes 90%, of the rigs drilling in the continental US are drilling for natural gas, not oil. That was surprising to me and I am in the industry. The reason for this could only be that our proven oil reserves are so depleted and are such a finacial gamble to drill for, that the oil companies are drilling for the safer, known gas reserves.

Mexico's Oil Output Cools
by David Luhnow
Dow Jones Newswires 1/29/2007
URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=40538
MEXICO CITY Jan 29, 2007 (From the Wall Street Journal via Dow Jones Newswires)
Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field tumbled by half a million barrels last year, according to figures released Friday by the Mexican government. The ongoing decline at the Cantarell field could pressure prices on the global oil market, complicate U.S. efforts to diversify its oil imports away from the Middle East, and threaten Mexico's financial stability.
The virtual collapse at Cantarell -- the world's second-biggest oil field in terms of output at the start of last year -- is unfolding much faster than projections from Mexico's state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Cantarell's daily output fell to 1.5 million barrels in December compared to 1.99 million barrels in January, according to figures from the Mexican Energy Ministry.
Mexico made up for some of the field's decline. Mexico's overall oil output fell to just below three million barrels a day in December, down from almost 3.4 million barrels at the start of the year. It marked Mexico's lowest rate of oil output since 2000.
Mexico's troubles at Cantarell mirror the larger problems in the global oil market. Many of the world's biggest fields are old and face decline, which can be sharp and sudden. Like other big producers, Mexico is struggling to make up the difference because new big fields are in harder-to-reach places like the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
The field's decline is expected to continue, if not worsen, this year, according to most estimates. That will subtract valuable oil from the world market, which is under pressure from rising demand by growing economies like China and India. It also means less oil headed to the U.S. from Mexico, which has long relied on Mexico as one of its top-three oil suppliers.
"This is bad news for Mexico. The field is declining faster than even the government's pessimistic scenarios," says David Shields, an oil industry consultant in Mexico City who has been warning about Cantarell's collapse for the past two years.
The decline is especially worrisome for Mexico's new President Felipe Calderon, who won a narrow victory in last year's election that his main opponent didn't accept, causing brief political unrest. Any major decline in output or prices will force him to cut government spending, a politically unpopular move. Growth in Mexico's economy is already expected to slow this year thanks to a U.S. slowdown.
Mexico's declining production also will raise the pressure on Mr. Calderon to crack open the country's closed energy market to allow private investors to help Pemex find new oil deposits. But the former energy minister will have a tough time convincing an opposition-dominated Congress to rewrite Mexico's Constitution. The country's oil expropriation of 1938 is part of Mexico's self-image.
A year ago, The Wall Street Journal published an internal Pemex study that reviewed possible scenarios at Cantarell. The study's best-case scenario forecast Cantarell's production would fall to 1.54 million barrels a day by the end of last year -- almost exactly what happened.
At the time, top Pemex officials disputed the report and said the study's scenario represented a "do-nothing" or "worst-case" approach that didn't take into account maintenance at the field. Pemex predicted that Cantarell production would only drop to 1.87 million barrels a day by December and that overall output at the company would actually grow to 3.42 million barrels a day.
Since then, Pemex has said it can offset declines at Cantarell with new production from other fields.
Mexico's growing economy is demanding more fuel each year, which is expected to translate to even lower oil exports. Last year, Mexico's daily average oil exports fell to 1.79 million barrels a day from 1.82 million the previous year. Pemex says it expects daily exports to fall to an average 1.65 million barrels this year.
But some analysts say that is too optimistic. December's daily exports were a meager 1.53 million barrels. While that figure may have been affected by bad weather that closed some ports, it was already well below Pemex's estimates for this year.
Based on the state company's track record so far at Cantarell, including its current rates of recovering the oil that remains in the field, Mr. Shields expects the field's output to drop another 600,000 barrels a day by the end of this year. He says that Pemex will likely increase output by 200,000 barrels a day at other fields -- leaving the country with a net decline of 400,000 barrels a day by year's end and daily exports of less than 1.4 million barrels.
None of this is welcome news in a country that relies on oil exports for some 37% of government revenue. So far, relatively high oil prices have kept the country from feeling the effects of lower output. But prices could continue a recent drop, adding to Mexico's woes from a production shortfall. This year's Mexican budget is based on Pemex's official production targets as well as a relatively high oil price -- about $50 on the world market.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

I wanted to bump this and comment on it. I don't think too many people read it or understood the ramifications.

This is big news. The Mexican oilfield is the second largest producing field in the world. Iraq is the second largest as for proven reserves. But Mexico, as far as actual daily production, is the second largest.

They are the second largest supplier of crude oil to the United States. And now their newly released production figures for 2006 show a steep and continuing decline. Much more severe than anyone had predicted. And their demand is growing.

What this means is that there will be less oil coming to the US this summer when our consumption is at its highest. Unless, and it is highly unlikely, we find some place to replace that lost oil. Everyone is either producing at maximum output or their fields are in decline.

So the $2.50 to $3.00 a gallon gas of last summer will be a fond memory this summer. I expect to see $3.50,to maybe as high as $4.00 a gallon this summer.

And where are we to get more oil? 90% of the drilling rigs active right now in the US are not drilling for oil. Why? Because oil production in the US is, and has been, falling for years. The production rate in Texas has dropped from nearly a million barrels a day a decade ago to just over 300,000 last year and will be much less this year. And all of the US oil producing states are in the same situation.

We are seeing the long predicted effects of Peak Oil. In another year or two it will be so apparent that it cannot be hidden any longer.

I urge everyone of you to buy the most fuel effecient vehicle you can afford. Now, before these effects start to manifest and the price of fuel effecient vehicles skyrockets.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Has anyone else noticed the recent rise in oil prices? They are reporting that it is because of a greater than expected drop in available supplies.
Ok, maybe, but why? I think it is directly related to this report from Mexico.
If prices are going up now on just the reporting of this, wait until this summer when demand skyrockets.
I think I would consider canceling any summer travel plans.

This report is about rig availability, and is only about gas exploration( which 90% of the rigs in the US are drilling for), but it has some very telling statements.

Declining Exploration Costs, Returns

Past downturns have been marked by declines in the number of rigs in use, usually starting a few weeks after gas prices start to drop. In the smaller Canadian market, gas rig counts - a barometer for overall demand - fell right on schedule, from 596 in February 2006 to 431 last week, according to Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI), an oil-field services company that conducts a weekly rig census.

But Baker Hughes' U.S. gas rig count hit a 21-year high of 1,466 in January, and has spent 25 of the last 26 weeks above 1,400 rigs. Despite flat gas prices, the count is likely to hover around 1,370 in 2007, according to Ziff Energy Group, a Calgary-based gas consulting firm.

Producers need to operate that many rigs just to maintain current levels of production, said Bill Gwozd, vice president of gas services at Ziff.

"Two wells 10 years ago is equal to 10 wells today," Gwozd said. "They've tapped out all the large reservoirs and now they're getting into much smaller (plays)."

The need to replace depleted reserves has services companies publicly convinced that producers' ability to set prices is fleeting.

In the last two weeks, Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), Halliburton Co. (HAL), the two largest services firms, as well as Nabors executives have all used variations on the phrase "short-lived and self-correcting" to describe any downturn in North American drilling.

That's not just spin, Bailey said, cautioning that drillers could respond to a surge in demand by bringing retired rigs into service, which would push against any pricing rally.

"If you think about how many rigs we've added in the last two or three years just to get a modest increase in production ... it's like running on a treadmill," he said.

 

Peak Oil, Hurricanes, and the Price of Gas


September 2005

Warning: Just a word or two about "Peak Oil" believers and those that believe that peak oil is a scam... The "peakers" believe that there is a real shortage of oil and that it will very soon be used up. The "scammers" believe that peak oil is a fraud and there is no shortage of oil at all and fossil fuels may even be a renewable resource. Most scammers seem to believe that the fraud is perpetrated by "big oil", the US Government, and it's allies in order to artificially inflate the price of oil as a means of controlling the people and basically taking over the world and instilling a form of socialism or "New World Order". You know something?... I really don't care who is right or wrong - what I do know is that the price of oil is going to increase dramatically in the near future one way or the other. If I had to pick a side, I would probably be more inclined to side with the peakers. It just makes more scientific sense. And the scammers all seem to be a bunch of "conspiracy theorists". Here is September's newsletter....


Just after Hurricane Katrina hit and the Colonial oil pipeline from Louisiana to Atlanta stopped flowing for about a week, the price of gas jumped 50 cents a gallon in one day and then about another 30 cents a gallon the next day. Mass panic ensued in Atlanta and everyone rushed down to their local gas station to fill up. This caused shortages and more panic. What I want you to learn from this "mini-trial run" is this...

Everything in your life depends on oil
Just take a moment to think about it... what would happen if the price of gas went up to $10 per gallon? Can't happen you say? In the late '90's oil was $11 per barrel and $1 per gallon at the pump. Today it is $63 per barrel and anywhere from $2.78 to $3.29 or more at the pump. Much higher in other countries. Depending on how you look at it, that's anywhere from a 3x to 6x increase in oil prices in just a 6 year period. By 2010, it could very well cost us $10 a gallon to fill up our SUVs!


Note: This graph is Billions of barrels per year and the graph below is Millions of barrels per day.
Listen... I am the last person on the face of the Earth to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon. I am skeptical of everything and check things out as best I can. I really do believe this "Peak Oil" hype is true. Heck...

Even if half of it is true, we are royally screwed!
I'm really not trying to scare you into buying a book from me by giving you false information - although I do have some helpful books that I'll tell you about later. I'm trying to give you useful and important information - so let's get back to thinking about what will happen if the price of gas gets too expensive for everyday people to afford....

• No Electricity - most of our electricity is supplied by fossil fuels. Just think about it... no more electric lighting, no air conditioning, no TV, no radio, no CD players, no refrigeration, no heating, no microwaves or electric drills or DVD players.
• No Water - without electricity to run the pumps, no water will flow out of your pipes. And remember - you can live for a while without food, but you will die quickly without water.
• No Food - The farmers will not be able to run their equipment and even if they could produce food, it could not be transported to your local grocery store without oil. Pesticides and fertilizers are both manufactured with and from fossil fuels.
• No Medicines - All modern medicines depend on fossil fuels.
• No Transportation - No more planes, trains, or automobiles. No more stores fully stocked by 18 wheelers. No more FedEx, UPS, or US Postal Service.
• No Local Government - This means no police to protect you, no road maintenance, garbage collection, etc. I wonder if they are still going to want their taxes?
• Federal Government - Notice I didn't say "No Federal Government". There will be one, but it may be just as concerned with suppressing riots and controlling the Citizens as it will be in securing the last drops of oil on foreign soil. Oil wars and mandatory military service are predicted. Maybe that's why we will soon be required to have a passport to enter Canada - to keep the draft dodgers in instead of keeping the terrorists out. I'm not too sure the oil wars have not already started!
• The manufacturing of just about everything you can think of depends on fossil fuels. So you can kiss all these things goodbye - cars, plastics, metal products, all electronic goods, clothing, and just about everything you see as you walk down the isles of Wal-Mart or Best Buys.
  

If what "they" are saying is true, then we will literally be thrown back into the stone age. Not the bronze age - the stone age! The numbers are pretty much indisputable... we started with 2000 billion barrels of oil. We have already used 1000 billion barrels. We use 28 billion barrels a year now. When you factor in increased demand in the US and other countries like China, we only have about 25 years of oil left. There is very little undiscovered oil left to find. And...

I've got more bad news for you!
When you factor in other elements like oil will become too expensive before it runs out, and oil will soon cost more to extract or pump than they get out (i.e. it may soon cost two barrels of oil to get one out of the ground), or a well planned terrorist attack may make all this happen tomorrow, or oil producing countries may soon figure out that they need the oil instead of selling it to other countries.... we're looking at around the year 2010 when the "experts" say it's going to start hitting the fan!

Don't worry... I was stunned too when I first found out how fast all this may happen. And alternative fuels and energy sources like coal, natural gas, methane, geothermal, hydrogen, nuclear, solar, hydro, wind, fuel cells, and ethanol all have problems associated with scaling them up to replace cheap oil. Even if you add up all these alternatives, they will not even come close to the equivalent of 28 billion barrels of oil a year. Out of all the alternative fuels, biodiesel has the most potential and promise, but even biodiesel is a drop in the bucket compared to fossil fuels.

Biodiesel may be of some help on a household level if you know how and are set up to make it for your own use. The first chapter of "From the Fryer to the Fuel Tank" explains in detail why our fossil fuel supply is literally drying up. Other chapters go on to explain in a very easy to understand way everything you ever wanted to know about biodiesel. Go back and read some of my previous newsletters on biodiesel and Jatropha for extra information. My book "Electricity - Make it, Don't Buy it" may very well come in very handy in 2010 (or earlier if you are smart since the internet may not exist in 2010). Not only does it explain how to generate electricity using biodiesel, but it contains useful information on solar heating and cooling, methane, solar cooking, solar refrigeration, some interesting free energy notes, and much more. By the way... currently, a free energy device does not exist, but even if one were to be discovered, it may not save us from the "2nd stone age" because of economic and political problems that would take another book to explain. If someone would invent a device that would work on a household level, that might work though!

The bottom line is this... it will happen sooner or later and those that are prepared will survive and those that are not prepared - well... who knows? I know this... the Amish are going to be laughing all the way to their full dinner tables when all this happens. They are fairly self-sufficient and rarely use electricity or oil. That's why I like them so much and I sell the book "Living Without Electricity" . In my eBay store, I don't have a lot of titles in my store because I review and eliminate all the books that contain useless info or false hype. I don't have any UFO, anti-gravity, or free energy books because 99% of it is junk. I'll be adding new titles in the future to help you deal with the coming oil crash. Look for books to come soon on becoming more self-sufficient... housing, energy, heating, organic gardening, fresh water supply, etc.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

The discussion in this thread in "General Discussion" has been getting very interesting. I don't want to see it get buried in the back pages so I thought I would copy some of the posts over here. MM

http://survivalmonkey.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6209

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Originally Posted by BigO01
Well I have never thought of ethanol as our great "savior" crop , for one reason . I have heard and read but am not sure of the of the validity of this but , due to the minerals a corn crop uses from the earth farmers either must rotate the land they use for corn production every year or face having the yield decrease each season .
True enough, crop rotation becomes imperative. Or fertilizer. IIRC, even with fertilizer, it is two on, one fallow with a nitrogen producing crop in the off year. I'll defer on the details, don't remember that far back.

One of the many things that just seems to make no sense in all of this has to do with the electric cars , while I haven't studied the damn things I haven't until recently heard of a car that regenerates it's battery power as it goes down the road .
Actually, that is done frequently (if not all the time) with the hybrids. But we rapidly run into the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. That says, in essence, that you can't get any more out than you put in. Perfect efficiency is impossible (and I can say that without fear of contradiction) meaning you have to have some input over and above what you can recover with braking after accelerating. Diesel powered trains, commuter and freight, have been using this for at least 30 years as a means of recovering some of the energy that would otherwise be wasted as heat.

I find the fact that this wasn't Incorporated into the first designs completely stupid as they have four wheels turning to do so .
Reducing the above a bit, you can't use the front wheels to drive the rears, or vice versa. You have to add some energy along the way.

If this is a situation of impending doom then many things need to be changed for one people everywhere must learn they can't go blasting down the highways at 90+ MPH just for amusement anymore . Oddly this alone will be one of the hardest sells as people do love their toys regardless of the danger they face "playing" with them .
How true. Me, too.

Then there is the matter of the physical layout of our Nation , in the last several decades America has continued to sprawl out when in fact it should have been pulling back to prepare for this situation .
And of course, also true to a point. For many years the urban planning mavens have been touting vertical hives for us to live and work in as the more economical way to live. Which is true, if elbow room doesn't count. Then we run into the American Dream of having one's own plot of ground with space to wiggle. At one time or another, I've had both. I like space; hive living (experienced overseas in Asia) is not my cuppa, and I ain't gonna do it again. (Hive living. Asia is GREAT.)

I don't know about everyone elses area but in MO they are building strip Malls at a breakneck speed when they haven't filled the last with business .
Here in VA, the federal office workers are reaching for their share of the Dream, too. This area is experiencing the same thing, developers over-reaching occupancy in the malls and hives.

Conserving energy by walking or bike riding to work is a bad joke in this area especially in bad weather .
Walking? An American that can walk to work is a rare bird. The urban planners want to set that up, but until work at home becomes much more wide spread than it is now, that is a non starter.

Back in the 70's there were news paper articles on new designs for bicycles that had canopies over them and special lanes that ran parallel to the main highways . These could travel at speeds nearing 60 MPH and if I remember correctly could seat two people one behind the other with a small trunk area . While construction costs would have been significant the fuel savings would also have been significant over the past 30 years . Yet they never came to be .
At my age, a bike without a motor is a non starter. And so it is for most, given the average commute. Each mile on the commute adds half a minute to the work day. When I was doing a 65 mile run each way in Michigan some years ago, the work days were way too long to play with the kids. (And there was NO WAY I was going to live in Flint.)

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

You had it OK, I lifted it and added my nickle this morning; cut and paste.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Just seen that and deleted. Thought it was one I had overlooked.

 

Eureka

Eureka
I have been watching something interesting this morning. I have DirecTV satellite and they have been running a promo for a short 9-minute film produced by Shell Oil Company,"Eureka". It is showing continuously on channel 115.

The story is supposedly based on true events. It has a reporter in Brunei interviewing a Shell petroleum engineer. When he asks what the story is about she responds “Dwindling oil reserves and what you are doing about it.”
He takes her out to an offshore field and on the trip he says, “We all know that easily accessible oil is a thing of the past.”
Flying over the offshore rigs he tells her that there are hundreds of small pockets of oil left in the field but it is not environmentally or economically feasible to build a platform on each one of them to produce what little oil is there.

While visiting his son he watches him suck the last bit of a shake from the sides of the glass by bending the straw to get to it.
And Eureka! He has solved the problem of tapping these widespread pockets of oil.
The wrap up states that his idea of a “Snake” well to reach multiple pockets is in use in Brunei and being implemented around the world.

I find several things very telling about this film. First of all modern directional drilling technology has been around for over 20 years so, the only thing that is really “new” about this engineers “Eureka” inspiration was to snake around from one pocket to another with the same well bore. Which I admit is a good idea. But the telling thing is that it has only been utilized in the last few years. I talked to a directional driller this morning and he told me that they have been doing that for some time now in parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

I think the scene in which the son is sucking up the last of his shake is an attempt to plant the idea in people’s minds that we are down to the last drops. And the passing comments about the dwindling reserves and end of the easily accessible reserves.

I think what we are seeing with this and with BP’s advertising campaign and others, is a concerted effort to start waking people up to the realities of peak oil.
The oil companies know that in the very near future oil is going to climb to astronomical new prices. And the outrage of the public will be swift and harsh. I think these films and ads are attempts to try and minimize that. A pre-emptive strike at public opinion.

The scary part is this, only two or three years ago the big oil companies were denying and ridiculing peak oil and trying to stifle anyone who broached the subject.
But now I think they see that the cat is out of the bag and there is no more denying it.
So they are trying to gradually introduce it and assure people that they are working on it.
There is a Company info page that you can access that tells about how Shell is rising to the challenge and is working on alternatives, better production methods, etc. But one telling statement says this “ Renewables may be the fastest growing sector of the energy industry, but they are unlikely to produce more than 10% of the worlds supply by 2025.

This is a problem that will have dire effects on all of us long before 2025. We have just a very few years before this hits us full force.

A postscript.
I have to admit that it gives me some satisfaction to see the things that I have been warning about for over 5 years now finally starting to become mainstream and accepted. Newscasters, oil companies, and even the president now discuss the things that others and I were ridiculed for just a few years ago.
But it is bittersweet. While I am glad to see people starting to wake up, it is one thing in my life that I would have been all to glad to be wrong about. It is only going to get worse, much worse. And that is not a pleasant thought to face.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Should I add some more doom and gloom to this thread or simply let MM hold our hand into the abyss?

Maybe I need a more pessimistic avatar

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Well here we go. I feel like I bear nothing but bad news lately. I predicted that we would see all time highs at the pumps this summer. Seems like it is going to hit us sooner than that.

How High Will Gas Prices Rise This Summer?


The Wall Street Journal Online
By Ana Campoy

A Lot Depends on Refineries, Weather and Driving Habits; A Raccoon and an Opossum

Gasoline prices, already flirting with $3 a gallon, could move even higher during the summer driving season. It all depends on refineries, weather and drivers' tolerance for expensive fuel.

Rising gasoline prices already are pinching sales of gas-guzzlers like sport-utility vehicles and putting consumers in a sour mood. High gas prices in particular affect working-class shoppers, and they're a big reason why sales growth at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has been anemic in recent months. But some more-affluent consumers are changing their habits as well. Omar Galicia, a Dallas attorney, says he is driving less during weekends because of high gas prices. If prices keep going up, he says he'll trade in his Dodge Charger for a more fuel-efficient car. "I don't have that long of a commute, but it impacts your wallet," he says.

Still, pain at the pump hasn't kept Americans from driving, which is part of the reason gasoline prices keep rising. Many workers need to drive to earn a living, and cutting back isn't an option.

"I've been trying to find a job that is closer to home to save some gasoline, but sometimes it's difficult because the work is all over the place," says Jariel Herrera, a 32-year-old granite and marble installer in Dallas. "My job is to go from one place to the other. I can not drive."

The latest Energy Information Agency data show gasoline demand in the past few weeks rose 2.3% from the same period last year, outstripping growth in refinery capacity. That, in turn, is making the U.S. ever more dependent on gasoline imports.

Regular gasoline nationally averaged $2.97 a gallon, AAA reported yesterday. While that's still about nine cents shy of the highest price ever recorded, which was in September 2005, it is a record high this early in the season. Gas was selling for just $2.70 a gallon as recently as the beginning of April.

How high prices go this summer depends largely on what happens to the refineries that crank out the nation's fuel. Refinery outages in recent weeks, largely for maintenance, are part of the reason fuel prices have rocketed up. If refinery operations smooth out, gas prices could remain stable or even fall.

But the picture could be far bleaker if supply interruptions persist or intensify. In 2005, hurricanes Katrina and Rita smashed into the petrochemical-refining belt in the Gulf of Mexico, idling more than a quarter of the nation's refining capacity and sending gasoline prices climbing. Another hurricane striking Louisiana or Texas this year, even if less severe than the storms in 2005, could have a similar effect on pump prices.

"There's very little slack in the system, so it doesn't take a lot to go wrong to send prices higher," says Doug MacIntyre, senior oil-market analyst from the Energy Information Agency, a federal agency.

Demand for gasoline has been growing at a faster pace than domestic refining capacity. The U.S. has filled that gap by importing fuel. The problem now is that imports aren't as readily available as in the past.

Europe, which provides a big chunk of the gasoline imported by the U.S., is switching some of its refineries to diesel, which is becoming the preferred fuel in that market, says Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Fimat, a brokerage firm owned by Societe Generale. Tougher environmental regulations have reduced overall output, and the strong euro has also made importing European gasoline to the U.S. less economical, he adds.

Imports from other countries, such as Venezuela, have also fallen due to refinery problems in those countries. In the first three months of the year, gasoline imports to the U.S. fell 12% compared with the same period last year.

At the same time, a string of refinery outages and maintenance stops in the U.S. drove refining capacity to record lows. Refining capacity in the third week of April was 87.8%, compared with an average of above 90% in the same period between 1994 and 2005, according to the EIA. This is even lower than the 88.2% capacity levels recorded in mid-April last year, when refineries were still recovering from Hurricane Katrina.

Although analysts expect domestic production to increase in coming weeks and somewhat restore inventories before the start of the driving season, even a small mishap can have a huge effect on prices.

Earlier this year, a raccoon and an opossum wandered into two Southern California substations, causing a power-supply disruption that resulted in flaring at one refinery and an outage at another. With supplies in the Los Angeles market tight, the incident -- along with a host of other factors -- contributed to rise of a few cents per gallon in gasoline prices.

Consumer groups already have started complaining about the recent rise in gasoline prices and are urging politicians to push oil companies to expand refining capacity.

"There isn't enough refining capacity, and that is a deliberate business decision," says Judy Dugan, director of research at the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights, a nonprofit organization. The oil industry counters that it's more economical to build refineries in rapidly growing markets like Asia than in the U.S.

In the end, it may come down to consumers: Either they'll have to use less gasoline, or they're going to continue to pay a premium.